{"id":1311353,"date":"2024-09-06T13:27:57","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T12:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?p=1311353"},"modified":"2025-07-31T16:38:36","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T15:38:36","slug":"football-betting-strategy","status":"publish","type":"betting-guides","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/guides\/football-betting-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ultimate Guide to Football Betting Strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A football betting strategy is a plan or outline that guides a punter to make a profit on football betting. Some require no knowledge, and some require an in-depth understanding of the sport.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this piece, we\u2019ll introduce you to some of the most popular strategies and how to utilise them. Unfortunately, there is no best football betting strategy \u2013 betting is about finding what works for an individual. However, read on if you want to maximise your chances of winning at football betting sites<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Seven Proven Football Betting Strategies to Maximize Your Winnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Below, we take a closer look at eight popular football betting strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Value Betting<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Value Betting is where you take a bet that is more likely to land than the implied odds that a bookmaker offers. Bookmakers use their models, statistics, and various data to set odds. Typically, the odds offered by bookies strongly reflect the actual likelihood of an event, as firms use models, statistics, and various data to set odds. However, determining the true odds can be tricky. To develop an effective betting strategy, it’s essential to form your estimate of the true odds and weigh that against what the bookmaker is offering.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the best examples is to think of a simple coin toss. The odds of the coin landing on heads or tails is 50%. When looking at odds, 1\/1 (2.00) has an implied probability of 50%, so in theory, this is the price for either heads or tails in our coin toss.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If someone offered you odds of 6\/5 (2.20) on either heads or tails, and you accepted, this would be a value bet. If you repeat the coin toss over and over again while taking 6\/5 instead of 1\/1, you would ultimately win more money than you would lose.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Taking Advantage of New Customer Offers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Many punters stick to just using one bookmaker, which can be a crucial mistake in trying to make a long-term profit. Besides being able to take advantage of the best odds that are available, you can also maximise your bankroll by hoovering up free bets and welcome bonuses upon sign-up. Some bookmakers offer up to \u00a350 in Free Bets when registering and placing a qualifying bet of \u00a310. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of our favourite sign-up offers is from Copy Bet, who are currently offering \u00a350 in Free Bets when you sign-up and place a \u00a310 bet at minimum odds of 1\/1 (2.00). Paddy Power is another firm we think you should consider adding to your punting arsenal, with an offer that is suited for football bettors, with \u00a350 in Free Bets on arrival after a qualifying bet of \u00a310. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Arbitrage<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Another popular strategy is arbitrage betting or \u2018arbing\u2019 for short.  Simply put, it is being able to back a selection at a higher price than you can lay it with an exchange.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, if bet365 is offering 6\/4 (2.50) Manchester United beat Arsenal at Old Trafford. However, on the Betfair Exchange, the price to lay Manchester United is currently 2.3, which is shorter than 6\/4. You could place a bet with bet365 and lay the same selection on Betfair and guarantee yourself a profit.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These types of situations occur more often than you would think, especially in the early stages of a market before it has gained liquidity. To be successful, you need to be on the ball to take advantage of them, as there are a lot of bettors looking for the same things.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Cut out Accas<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Most football punters were born into the betting world by placing a \u00a31 accumulator with a slip the size of your arm on a Saturday afternoon. Picking out 15 teams to win an eye-watering amount of money may sound like the way to go. Still, historically, bookmakers prefer customers who place multiples as they are often losing players.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bookmakers use an overround on their markets, which allows them to guarantee themselves a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. Combining selections into multiples increases the cumulative overround for the bookmaker, making winning harder. However, if you had numerous selections with a positive Expected Value (EV), this can work in your favour. Traditionally, punters who place singles tend to be more profitable. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Lay the Draw<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One of the most popular betting exchanges is Matchbook, which we recommend for its excellent range of markets and substantial welcome offer of \u00a350 in Free Bets when you bet \u00a350. Many players enjoy a strategy where they lay the draw before a football match starts. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An early goal, either way, will allow you to back the draw at a much higher price than you layed it at, which guarantees you a profit no matter what happens for the remainder of the match.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is essential to pick a suitable game for this. It would be hoped that a strong favourite against an underdog (Manchester City at home to West Ham, for example) could get in front early enough to make this a quick and easy lay-to-back scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, this has become such a popular strategy in recent years that it is hard to get started in some markets as punters are all looking to place the same bets. That can make it difficult to trade out of your position during the match if a draw is more likely to be the full-time result.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

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Matchbook Sign-Up Offer:\u00a0<\/h2>\r\n

Matchbook are offering new customers the chance to get \u00a350 in free bets when they join and place \u00a350 in qualifying bets.<\/p>\r\n

To claim this offer, follow these steps:<\/p>\r\n