For new Football Index traders, the transfer window can be a difficult time.
As a result of transfer rumours, a player’s value can drastically increase only to crash once a move is completed or fails to materialise.
Indeed, the world’s first football stock market can be volatile during the summer and in January, when traders are tempted into buying and selling with players coming and going.
But Craig Rennie of Football Index Elite insists there are profits to be made if traders know what they are doing during the window.
“The transfer markets are an interesting time for Index traders to say the least,” Craig says. “It’s probably the most volatile the market gets as rumours of potential moves cause players’ values to increase, usually way beyond their real value.
“It can be a difficult time for inexperienced traders as many will get caught up in the price hikes and pay over the odds for that player. Generally, once a player has completed a move, their value tends to decrease as the big traders sell off having made a tidy profit, leaving more vulnerable traders holding a player in negative equity.
“The best recent example of this was Paulo Dybala’s potential move to Man Utd or Tottenham during the summer. His value almost doubled during the rumours but quickly declined after it fell through, leaving a lot of traders with their fingers burnt.”
So, what should new traders keep in mind when the transfer window comes around? Craig advises keeping an eye on the rumour mill – but as ever, timing is key.
He adds: “There are good profits to make during the transfer windows if you are quick and clever with your trades. My advice would be to keep a close eye on the paper talk. If you get on early enough and get out at the right time, it can be a very successful way of trading.
“It’s also, on occasion, worth keeping hold of a player making a big move. If you feel he is going to do well at his new club then their values can increase over time.”
So, who are the players who might see their values rise as January approaches? Craig has suggested some high-profile names worth keeping an eye on.
As alluded to above, Dybala’s potential move to Manchester United or Tottenham is a fine example of how Premier League interest can drive prices.
“It’s important to note that the Premier League pretty much drives the index,” Craig says, “so a potential transfer to England is far more appealing to users than moving to another European club.”
Neymar was heavily linked with Barcelona and Real Madrid in the summer yet ended up staying at Paris Saint-Germain. But Craig has tipped his value to rise if the La Liga clubs revive their interest.
“If their interest raises its head again the impact could be huge for Index users and he is likely to return constant media dividends during this period as well as a nice price hike,” he says.
Craig thinks Pogba could be a “media magnet” again in January, going onto to suggest some players Manchester United could look to bring in that may be of value to traders.
He adds: “Lyon striker Moussa Dembele could be the perfect fit for them and at a reasonable price, he could be worth topping up on before January. Declan Rice, Sean Longstaff and possibly even Jadon Sancho are others who could move to Old Trafford.”
Having been linked to Arsenal last January, China-based Yannick Carrasco could be on the move soon, and Craig says he’s had his eye on the Belgian for some time.
“Carrasco is still young enough and good enough to make an impact at a top European club at a pretty low share price at present,” he says. “Obviously this is quite risky as his price increase is totally dependant on a transfer, but I feel it’s only a matter of time if he has the desire to make an impact for Belgium in the Euros this summer.”
So what’s Craig’s final piece of advice when it comes to trading during the transfer window?
“If you choose to trade over the transfer markets, tread carefully, do your own research and don’t be influenced by rumours on social media or players on the Football Index trending list,” he says. “The market will be at its most volatile during this period, but good profits can be obtained if done correctly.”
You have to be 18+ to gamble. For more information, go to BeGambleAware.org. Player prices accurate at the time of writing (18:00, 31/10/2019).