Outright Odds

World Cup betting tips: 5 dark horse bets for Qatar 2022

By Dean Smith

Published: 12:06, 22 September 2022

With the World Cup in Qatar fast approaching, we take a look at five odds-against bets to place on markets such as the Golden Boot and the Outright Winner.

Serbia to reach the Quarter Finals – 11/2 – William Hill

This Serbia team is certainly one to keep an eye on in Qatar. Drawn alongside Switzerland and Cameroon alongside pre-tournament favourites Brazil, winning Group G may just be beyond them, but a second placed finish could set up a Round of 16 tie against Portugal – who they famously beat 1-2 at Estadio da Luz in qualifying for this tournament to top their group and condemn the Seleccao to the play-offs, where they duly dispatched of Turkey and North Macedonia.

Orlovi have since showed their potential with further Nations League victories over Slovenia and Sweden and this is perhaps the strongest their squad has looked in quite some time, particularly in attack. Not only can they call on the prolific Aleksandar Mitrović, the likes of Dušan Vlahović and Luka Jović are more than capable in front of goal and that trio will be supplied by the a midfield including Juventus’ Filip Kostić and skipper Dušan Tadić.

Memphis Depay to win the Golden Boot – 25/1 – Bet365

Memphis Depay may not have set the world alight since his move to Barcelona last summer, but the Dutchman remains a near-constant threat when playing for the Netherlands. In his 80 caps at the time of writing, the former Manchester United man has racked up 42 goals for Oranje and he’s average a goal a game in his last nine international appearances.

In the group stages, the Netherlands face three opponents they will expect to beat in the form of Senegal, Qatar and Ecuador and as we saw with Harry Kane at the last World Cup, a prolific spell of form in the group stages against beatable opponents can stand you in good stead when it comes to the race for the Golden Boot. Louis van Gaal will be doing all he can to ensure Depay has no shortage of chances this summer and we trust the 28 year old to make the most of the opportunities that do come his way.


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Eric Dier To Start For England Against Iran – 9/4 – Betfair

Gareth Southgate has famously preferred a back three for the majoriy of his spell in charge of England, with John Stones and Kyle Walker generally seen as two of his first-choice trio – but with Harry Maguire desperately struggling for form at Manchester United, Eric Dier could be in line for a recall to the starting eleven in time for the Three Lions’ first game of the tournament against Iran on November 21st.

While Maguire has struggled to break into the Red Devils’ starting eleven during their resurgent run of form under Erik ten Hag, Dier has become a mainstay of Antonio Conte’s Tottenham side as the Lilywhites have started the Premier League season in terrific form. Although Southgate has been known to stick with his favourites in the past, the case for Dier to break into the team ahead of Maguire is looking stronger by the week.

Wales to be eliminated in the Round of 16 – 5/2 – Paddy Power

Wales have reached the finals of the World Cup for the first time since 1958, although in their two recent European Championship excursions, they have managed to exceed expectations to qualify from the group stages on both occasions. In 2016, the Red Dragons performed incredibly well to reach the semi-final stage and in 2020 they managed a draw with Switzerland and victory over Turkey to go through to the Round of 16, where they lost to eventual semi-finalists Denmark.

At 11/10 with Paddy Power, they’re joint second-favourites to progress to the Round of 16 from Group B alongside the USA, meaning they will most likely finish in second place behind England if they are to progress. If that’s the case, they’re likely to face a strong Netherlands side in the Round of 16, which will likely prove to be a step too far – but we’re backing them to beat Iran and USA to second place in the group and ensure their long-awaited return to the biggest international stage does extend beyond the first three matches.

Argentina to win outright – 15/2 with Sky Bet

Now that Lionel Messi is generally considered to be a waning power on the world stage, certain pundits seem to see Argentina as no real threat in Qatar – but you’d be unwise to discount Albiceleste at this stage. Not only do they have one of the greatest players of all time in their ranks in the shape of the PSG forward, but they’ve gone 33 games unbeaten since the last World Cup in a run that included a Copa America victory in 2021 plus a comprehensive 2022 ‘Finalissima’ victory over Italy at Wembley.

What’s more, while Messi is clearly not quite the all-conquering threat he once was, he has adapted his game to continue to be as threatening as ever and this will likely be his last real chance to lift the trophy that has eluded him thus far. With Messi supplemented by the Serie A duo of Lautaro Martínez and Paolo Dybala in attack, boss Lionel Scaloni must ensure his defence remains water-tight and allow his attacking talents to flourish on the biggest stage of all.

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