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Ukraine odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Squawka News

Ukraine odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 13:30, 30 March 2024 | Updated: 22:48, 3 April 2024

After qualifying through the playoffs, Ukraine are preparing for their fourth consecutive European Championships campaign.

First making it as hosts in 2012 but winning just one game, the Yellow and Blue have since qualified for France 2016 where they went out in the groups with zero points, before going all the way to the quarter-finals at Euro 2020, eventually exiting to England.

Ukraine finished third in their qualifying group this time around behind England and Italy, but made it to the playoffs thanks to their Uefa Nations League performance. Serhiy Rebrov’s side beat both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iceland 2-1 to book their place in Germany.

Here’s everything you need to know about Ukraine ahead of the tournament.

Latest Ukraine odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Ukraine to win Euro 2024 100/1 with Bet365 1%
Ukraine to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 20/1 with BetVictor 4.8%
Ukraine to win Group C 13/2 with BoyleSports 13.3%
Artem Dovbyk to win Golden Boot 125/1 with Bet365

Ukraine route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Romania (17 June 2024, 3pm, Allianz Arena)
  • Slovakia (21 June 2024, 3pm, Düsseldorf Arena)
  • Belgium (26 June 2024, 6pm, Stuttgart Arena)

Ukraine’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Ukraine win Group E, they’ll place one of the best third-place teams, though that could offer any number of possibilities. The worst outcome there would be drawing a team from Group B, this tournament’s ‘group of death’ containing holders Italy, 2020 semi-finalists Spain and Croatia, who have finished second and third at the last two World Cups.

Of course, with Belgium in their group, it’s far more likely Ukraine will be pushing for second. If that’s the case, they’ll play the runner-up from Group D which is most likely to be either the Netherlands or France, but could also end up being Poland or Austria. On this path, Ukraine’s quarter-final opponents would then most likely be Portugal, followed by Germany or one of the ‘group of death’ teams in the semi-final. In the unlikely event Rebrov’s side then reach the final, England, France, Belgium or another ‘group of death’ team would await.

Should Ukraine qualify for the knockouts as one of the best third-place teams, it’ll once again open up any number of possibilities for the round of 16, with the only guarantee being that they’ll face a group winner.

Ukraine key players for this year’s European Championship

Ukraine top Euros Golden Boot contender: Artem Dovbyk

  • Key stat: Only Jude Bellingham (16), Ante Budimir (15) and Borja Mayoral (15) have scored more goals in La Liga this season than Artem Dovbyk (14).

After spending a couple of years dominating Ukrainian football with SK Dnipro-1, Artem Dovbyk made the big step to La Liga last summer, joining a Girona side that was expected to battle bravely against relegation. In an incredible season, the opposite has been true, with Girona the shock leaders in Spain for long stretches and only recently levelling out to sit third, with Champions League qualification looking highly likely.

Blanquivermells have been inspired by Dovbyk’s goals, with the 26-year-old netting 14 times in just 27 league appearances, showing a creative streak as well with five assists.

Dovbyk’s form has reportedly caught the attention of Chelsea but, for now, he’ll be focusing on firing Girona to European football, then helping Ukraine build on their first-ever knockout appearance at a major international tournament during the previous Euros.

During qualifying, the striker netted twice, including against Bosnia and Herzegovina during the playoffs, with his international tally now at eight goals in 25 senior caps.

Ukraine primary playmaker: Mykhailo Mudryk

  • Key stat: No Ukrainian player registered more assists than Mykhailo Mudryk (2) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

Mykhailo Mudryk is one Ukrainian already at Chelsea, though he has blown hot and cold since arriving from Shakhtar Donetsk, showing true world-class abilities in glimpses before fading out for long periods. Nevertheless, his raw pace and direct nature make him a terror for full-backs when he’s at his best and he certainly gave Ukraine a different dimension during qualifying, adding two assists to his two goals.

Mudryk has averaged 1.49 chances created per 90 minutes for Chelsea in the Premier League so far this season, along with 2.18 successful dribbles per 90 minutes; the latter more than any other Chelsea player this season.

Ukraine card magnets & top tacklers: Ruslan Malinovskyi

  • Key stat: Malinovskyi picked up a team-high four yellow cards during Euro 2024 qualifying, with only six players picking up more across all nations.

Ruslan Malinovskyi has been one of the toughest characters in European football for some time now, whether turning out for Atalanta, Marseille or, now, Genoa. Across his entire senior club career, the midfielder has picked up 84 yellow cards and five reds, including seven cautions in Serie A this season alone; the sixth-highest amount so far.

That’s because Malinovskyi’s primary function is arguably without the ball. Despite playing an advanced role, the 30-year-old is at his best when hunting down the opposition in transition and causing quick turnovers; it’s exactly what has made him such an attractive prospect to high-performing European clubs.

At club level this season, Malinovskyi is second among Genoa players for fouls (30), while he’s won possession in the middle and attacking thirds at a rate of 2.72 and 0.62 times per 90 minutes, respectively.

Ukraine rising star: Illya Zabarnyi

Given his only previous club experience was in Ukraine, Bournemouth’s £20m splash on Illya Zabarnyi last summer was viewed very much as a risk. However, the 21-year-old defender has quickly adapted to life in the Premier League and has now become a mainstay in the Cherries’ backline.

“I think Illia is a very, very solid centre-back,” Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola said of Zabarnyi earlier this season. “I think defensively he is very good in duels. I think for someone with his strength, he is quite comfortable, even if he is far (from his goal). He can follow the forwards far, because he also has the speed. Like all the centre-backs and all the keepers, he will sometimes make mistakes. We know this. He is very young. But I think he gives the team a lot of things.”

Zabarnyi’s speed and strength are going to be key to Ukraine when dealing with the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku and Ianis Hagi during the group stages and he should become a mainstay for Ukraine for years to come.

Ukraine set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Artem Dovbyk
  • Free kicks: Mykhailo Mudryk
  • Corners: Mykhailo Mudryk

Ukraine tactical analysis and formation

Ukraine team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 4.2
  • Shots on target: 4.2
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.90
  • Offsides: 1.1

4-2-3-1 has been the system of choice for Rebrov and it’s served him well, finding just the right balance between defensive solidity and counter-attacking menace to get them to Germany this summer.

It’s a battle between Andriy Lunin and Anatolii Trubin in goal, with the latter possibly getting the nod thanks to his excellent form as Benfica’s undisputed No.1 Ahead of him, the centre-backs pick themselves with Bournemouth’s Zabarnyi lining up alongside captain Mykola Matviyenko of Shakhtar Donetsk. Everton’s Vitaliy Mykolenko is at left-back, with the forward-thinking Yukhym Konoplia of Shakhtar on the other side.

Oleksandr Zinchenko will be used in midfield to connect play between defence and attack, while also filling in for Mykolenko should he decide to burst forward, while Malinovsky is the all-action box-to-box option alongside him.

Further forward, Georgiy Sudakov is another exciting Shakhtar product drawing attention across Europe and the 21-year-old will look to pull the attacking strings, flanked by Mudryk and Tsigankov who, between them, scored the goals to get Ukraine here in the playoff final against Iceland.

Up front is Tsigankov’s Girona teammate Dovbyk, who will carry a large goalscoring burden this summer.

Ukraine’s latest squad

Heorhiy Bushchan Goalkeeper 29 Dynamo Kyiv
Andriy Lunin Goalkeeper 25 Real Madrid
Anatoliy Trubin Goalkeeper 22 Benfica
Mykola Matviyenko Defender 27 Shakhtar Donetsk
Vitaliy Mykolenko Defender 24 Everton
Illya Zabarnyi Defender 21 Bournemouth
Oleksandr Tymchyk Defender 27 Dynamo Kyiv
Yukhym Konoplya Defender 24 Shakhtar Donetsk
Bohdan Mykhaylichenko Defender 27 Polissya Zhytomyr
Valeriy Bondar Defender 25 Shakhtar Donetsk
Maksym Talovyerov Defender 23 LASK
Oleksandr Zinchenko Midfielder 27 Arsenal
Serhiy Sydorchuk Midfielder 32 Westerlo
Ruslan Malinovskyi Midfielder 30 Genoa
Viktor Tsyhankov Midfielder 26 Girona
Oleksandr Zubkov Midfielder 27 Shakhtar Donetsk
Mykola Shaparenko Midfielder 25 Shakhtar Donetsk
Mykhailo Mudryk Midfielder 23 Chelsea
Heorhiy Sudakov Midfielder 21 Shakhtar Donetsk
Volodymyr Brazhko Midfielder 22 Dynamo Kyiv
Roman Yaremchuk Forward 28 Valencia
Artem Dovbyk Forward 26 Girona
Vladyslav Vanat Forward 22 Dynamo Kyiv

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