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Spain odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By James Amey

Published: 20:58, 22 March 2024 | Updated: 12:51, 28 March 2024

Spain will be hoping for a record breaking fourth European Championship trophy when they head to Euro 2024 this summer.

Having won the competition in 1964, 2008 and 2012, Spain are the joint most successful side in the European Championship history and after their semi-final exit in 2020, will be looking to go far in the tournament once more. La Roja finally saw their luck end to eventual champions Italy in the final four, as they were knocked out of Euro 2020 on penalties. All three of their knockout round matches headed to extra-time after going the group stages unbeaten, as they saw off Croatia and Switzerland before falling to the Azzurri at Wembley.

After that, they disappointed at the World Cup in Qatar, once again seeing their competition end with the lottery of spot kicks as Morrocco beat them 3-0 on penalties to advance to the quarter-finals. This time, they are fourth favourites to become the first side in the competition’s history to lift the famous trophy four times and with Manchester City’s Rodri guiding them in midfield alongside up and coming talents such as Pedri and Nico Williams, they will be tough to beat.

Latest Spain odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Spain to win Euro 2024 8/1 with Sky Bet 11.1%
Spain to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 11/8 with BetVictor 42.1%
Spain to win Group B 4/6 with Bet365 60%
Alvaro Morata to win Golden Boot 33/1 with Bet365 2.9%

Spain’s route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Croatia (15 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)
  • Italy (20 June 2024, 8pm, Veltins Arena)
  • Albania (24 June 2024, 8pm, Merkur Spiel-Arena)

Spain’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Spain win Group B, they’ll face the best third placed side from either Group A/D/E/F in the last 16, with Scotland, Austria or Turkey their likely opponents. Then it’s either the winner of Group A or runner-up from Group C, likely to be Germany in the quarter-final. If Spain reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face Portugal or Belgium if they win their group. And then the most likely France in the final.

Spain’s key players for this year’s European Championship

Spain top Euros Golden Boot contender: Alvaro Morata 

  • Key stat: Alvaro Morata is Spain’s all-time leading goalscorer at the European Championships.

With 14 goals in his opening 26 LaLiga games this season, Alvaro Morata is all set for a new personal best for goals in a single top-flight league season having found the back of the net 15 times for Real Madrid back in the 2016/17 campaign. Averaging 1.2 shots on target per game and sitting just two goals behind leading goalscorer Jude Bellingham in the LaLiga goalscoring charts, the Pichichi isn’t out of reach.

The Atleti man also boasts an impressive goalscoring record for the national side, having scored 34 goals in just 69 appearances and is the only player in the country’s history to score 3+ goals in multiple European Championship tournaments after hitting three goals in both 2016 and 2020.

With a Spaniard winning the Golden Boot in two of the last four tournaments in David Villa and Fernando Torres, it wouldn’t be the greatest shock if Morata completed the hat-trick.

In qualifying for Euro 2024, Morata was Spain’s joint-tiop goalscorer with four  goals in six games.

Spain’s primary playmaker: Alex Grimaldo

  • Key stat: Alex Grimaldo is the only defender to have more than 100 touches in the opposition box in Europe’s top five leagues this seeason.

Despite maybe not being first choice for his country, Alex Grimaldo has been in phenomenal form at club level so far this campaign and looks set to help Xabi Alonso and his Bayer Leverkusen side to the Bundesliga title. As well as scoring nine goals and having more touches inside the opposition box than any other defender in Europe’s top five leagues so far this campaign, the 28-year-old has provided the joint-most assists of any player across Europe, level with Leroy Sane on 11.

Even better than that, he is the first player since records began in 2004/05, to either score or assist in his first six away games in the Bundesliga and is a free-kick specialist having scored two free-kicks in his opening six matches in the competition.

Spain’s card magnets & top tacklers: Rodri 

  • Key stat: Rodri has picked up eight yellow cards in the Premier League this season, the joint-most he has ever picked up in a single league campaign.

Despite committing just 32 fouls in the Premier League this season, Rodri has picked up eight yellow cards, which is three more than he received in the whole of the 2021/22 and 2022/23 campaigns.It’s not the amount of fouls that the Man City man commits, but the type of fouls he makes, usually picking up bookings for stopping counters when the opposition are in transition. This has been a huge skill, knowing when your side is in danger and stopping the counter and something Pep Guardiola sides have always been guily of (in the best possible way).

Not only has Rodri picked up more bookins this season, but he has also been involved in more league goals, scoring six times and adding a further five assists at the time of writing.


Spain’s rising star: Lamine Yamal 

In his short career, Lamine Yamal has already set countless records for both club and country. He is the youngest ever player to both represent and score for Barcelona in LaLiga, the youngest player to ever represent and score for Spain, the second-youngest player to debut in the UCL and the youngest player to provide an assist in the Champions League. He has also made at least twice as many UCL appearances than any other 16-year-old in the competition’s history, so even at a young age he has the pedigree to impress on the biggest stages.

Spain set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Alvaro Morata
  • Free kicks: Rodri
  • Corners: Ferran Torres

Spain tactical analysis and formation

Spain team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 6.9
  • Fouls conceded: 9.8
  • Cards: 2.0
  • Shots on target: 6.8
  • Offsides: 2.3

Having worked with the U19’s, U21’s and the U23’s, Luis de la Fuente has helped shape some of the players that he will now be working with in the senior squad, so will already have the advantage of the players knowing how he works.

Spain usually set up in a 4-4-3 formation with Manchester City’s midfield maestro Rodri in the centre of everything, but their full-backs are the ket component in his set-up. With the likes of Alex Grimaldo, Pedro Porro, Alejandro Balde and Gaya at his disposal he has a group of full-backs that can play advanced, almost as a wing-back type winger hybrid like Grimaldo and Porro have been used to playing for their club sides with impressive results.

Alongside one of the best holding midfielders in Rodri, de la Fuente has the likes of Pedri, Fabian Ruiz and Mikel Merino to form a midfield full of quality, grit as well as players that can pick a pass when needed.

Up front, Alvaro Morata is expect to lead the line once more after an impressive campaign so far with Atletico Madrid where he has scored 19 goals across LaLiga and the Champions League. He is expected to be flanked by the fast and tricky Nico Williams, who has been linked with a host of top clubs this summer, Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo and teenage sensation Lamine Yamal.

In goal, Unai Simon is expected to keep his place between the sticks, but has competition from Real Sociedad’s Alex Remiro and Arsenal’s David Raya (currently on loan from Brentford).

Spain’s latest squad

Unai Simon Goalkeeper 26 Athletic Club
David Raya Goalkeeper 28 Arsenal
Alex Remiro Goalkeeper 28 Real Sociedad
Robin Le Normand Defender 27 Real Sociedad
Aymeric Laporte Defender 29 Al Nassr
Dani Vivian Defender 24 Athletic Club
Pau Cubarsi Defender 17 Barcelona
Alejandro Grimaldo Defender 28 Bayer Leverkusen
Marc Cucurella Defender 25 Chelsea
Pedro Porro Defender 24 Tottenham
Dani Carvajal Defender 32 Real Madrid
Jesus Navas Defender 38 Sevilla
Rodri Midfielder 27 Man City
Martin Zubimendi Midfielder 25 Real Sociedad
Mikel Merino Midfielder 27 Real Sociedad
Fabian Ruiz Midfielder 27 PSG
Dani Olmo Forward 25 RB Leipzig
Nico Williams Forward 21 Athletic Club
Lamine Yamal Forward 16 Barcelona
Alvaro Morata Forward 31 Atletico Madrid
Mikel Oyarzabal Forward 26 Real Sociedad
Pablo Sarabia Forward 31 Wolves
Alex Baena Forward 22 Villarreal
Gerard Moreno Forward 31 Villarreal

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