Outright Odds

Spain odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By James Amey

Published: 19:12, 15 June 2024

Spain will be hoping for a record-breaking fourth European Championships trophy when they head to Euro 2024.

Having won the competition in 1964, 2008 and 2012, Spain are the joint-most successful side in European Championships history and after their semi-final exit in 2020, will be looking to go far in the tournament once more. La Roja finally saw their luck end to eventual champions Italy in the final four, as they were knocked out of Euro 2020 on penalties. All three of their knockout round matches headed to extra-time after going the group stages unbeaten, as they saw off Croatia and Switzerland before falling to the Azzurri at Wembley.

After that, they disappointed at the World Cup in Qatar, once again seeing their competition end with the lottery of spot kicks as Morrocco beat them 3-0 on penalties to advance to the quarter-finals. This time, they are well among favourites to become the first side in the competition’s history to lift the famous trophy four times and with Manchester City’s Rodri guiding them in midfield alongside up-and-coming talents such as Pedri and Nico Williams, they will be tough to beat.

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Latest Spain odds to win Euro 2024
Spain to win Euro 2024
Spain to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals
Spain to win Group B
Alvaro Morata to win Golden Boot

Spain’s route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Spain 3-0 Croatia (15 June, Olympiastadion)
  • Italy (20 June 2024, 8pm, Veltins Arena)
  • Albania (24 June 2024, 8pm, Merkur Spiel-Arena)

Spain’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Spain win Group B, they’ll face the best third-placed side from either Group A/D/E/F in the last 16, with Scotland, Austria or Turkey their likely opponents. Then it’s either the winner of Group A or runner-up from Group C, likely to be Germany in the quarter-final. If Spain reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face Portugal or Belgium if they win their group. And then the most likely France in the final.

La Roja have already taken a huge step toward topping the group, of course, by thrashing Croatia 3-0 in their opening match.

Spain’s key players for this year’s European Championship

Spain top Euros Golden Boot contender: Alvaro Morata 

  • Key stat: Alvaro Morata is Spain’s all-time leading goalscorer at the European Championships.

With 15 goals in his 32 La Liga games this season, Alvaro Morata equalled his personal best for goals in a single top-flight season, having also found the back of the net 15 times for Real Madrid back in the 2016/17 campaign. Averaging 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes and finishing in the top 10 in the La Liga goalscoring charts, it was a decent season for Morata though he did tail off slightly.

The Atleti man also boasts an impressive goalscoring record for the national side, having scored 34 goals in just 69 appearances and is the only player in the country’s history to score 3+ goals in multiple European Championship tournaments after hitting three goals in both 2016 and 2020.

With a Spaniard winning the Golden Boot in two of the last four tournaments in David Villa and Fernando Torres, it wouldn’t be the greatest shock if Morata completed the hat-trick.

In qualifying for Euro 2024, Morata was Spain’s joint-top goalscorer with four goals in six games and he’s already opened his account at this tournament with the first goal against Croatia.

Spain’s primary playmaker: Alex Grimaldo

  • Key stat: Alex Grimaldo had the fourth-most touches in the opposition box in Europe’s top five leagues in 2023/24 among defenders.

Despite maybe not being first choice for his country, Alex Grimaldo has been in phenomenal form at club level so far this campaign and looks set to help Xabi Alonso and his Bayer Leverkusen side to the Bundesliga title. As well as scoring 10 goals and having 112 touches in the opposition box, the 28-year-old provided 13 assists in the Bundesliga, with only Alex Baena (14) providing more across Europe’s top five leagues.

Even better than that, he is the first player since records began in 2004/05, to either score or assist in his first six away games in the Bundesliga and is a free-kick specialist having scored two free-kicks in his opening six matches in the competition.

Spain’s card magnets & top tacklers: Rodri 

  • Key stat: Rodri picked up eight yellow cards in the Premier League this season, the joint-most he has ever picked up in a single league campaign.

Despite committing just 41 fouls in the Premier League this season, Rodri has picked up eight yellow cards, which is three more than he received in the whole of the 2021/22 and 2022/23 campaigns. It’s not the amount of fouls that the Man City man commits, but the type of fouls he makes, usually picking up bookings for stopping counters when the opposition are in transition. This has been a huge skill, knowing when your side is in danger and stopping the counter and something Pep Guardiola’s sides have always been guilty of (in the best possible way).

Not only has Rodri picked up more bookings this season, but he has also been involved in more league goals, scoring eight times and adding a further nine assists.

Spain’s rising star: Lamine Yamal 

In his short career, Lamine Yamal has already set countless records for both club and country. He is the youngest-ever player to both represent and score for Barcelona in La Liga, the youngest player to ever represent and score for Spain, the second-youngest player to debut in the Champions League and the youngest player to provide an assist in the Champions League. He has also made at least twice as many UCL appearances as any other 16-year-old in the competition’s history, so even at a young age he has the pedigree to impress on the biggest stages.

Speaking of records, Yamal became the youngest player to play and provide an assist in European Championships history against Croatia.

Spain set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Alvaro Morata
  • Free kicks: Rodri
  • Corners: Ferran Torres

Spain tactical analysis and formation

Spain team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 6.9
  • Fouls conceded: 9.8
  • Cards: 2.0
  • Shots on target: 6.8
  • Offsides: 2.3

Having worked with the U19s, U21s and the U23s, Luis de la Fuente has helped shape some of the players that he will now be working with in the senior squad, so will already have the advantage of the players knowing how he works.

Spain usually set up in a 4-4-3 formation with Manchester City’s midfield maestro Rodri in the centre of everything, but their full-backs are the key component in his set-up. With the likes of Alex Grimaldo, Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella at his disposal, he has a group of full-backs that can play advanced, almost as a wing-back type winger-hybrid like Grimaldo has been used to playing for his club side with impressive results.

Alongside one of the best holding midfielders in Rodri, de la Fuente has the likes of Pedri, Fabian Ruiz and Mikel Merino to form a midfield full of quality, grit as well as players that can pick a pass when needed.

Up front, Alvaro Morata leads the line once more after an impressive campaign with Atletico Madrid. He is flanked by the fast and tricky Nico Williams, who has been linked with a host of top clubs this summer, and teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, with the likes of Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres coming off the bench.

In goal, Unai Simon keeps his place between the sticks, but has competition from Real Sociedad’s Alex Remiro and Arsenal’s David Raya (currently on loan from Brentford) if his standards drop.

Spain’s final squad

Unai Simon Goalkeeper 26 Athletic Club
David Raya Goalkeeper 28 Arsenal
Alex Remiro Goalkeeper 28 Real Sociedad
Jesus Navas Defender 38 Sevilla
Dani Carvajal Defender 32 Real Madrid
Aymeric Laporte Defender 30 Al Nassr
Nacho Defender 34 Real Madrid
Robin Le Normand Defender 27 Real Sociedad
Marc Cucurella Defender 25 Chelsea
Alex Grimaldo Defender 28 Bayer Leverkusen
Daniel Vivian Defender 24 Athletic Bilbao
Rodri Midfielder 27 Man City
Fabian Ruiz Midfielder 28 PSG
Mikel Merino Midfielder 27 Real Sociedad
Pedri Midfielder 21 Barcelona
Martin Zubimendi Midfielder 25 Real Sociedad
Alex Baena Midfielder 22 Villarreal
Fermin Lopez Midfielder 21 Barcelona
Alvaro Morata Forward 31 Atletico Madrid
Ferran Torres Forward 24 Barcelona
Dani Olmo Forward 26 RB Leipzig
Mikel Oyarzabal Forward 27 Real Sociedad
Nico Williams Forward 21 Athletic Bilbao
Joselu Forward 34 Real Madrid
Lamine Yamal Forward 16 Barcelona
Ayoze Perez Forward 30 Real Betis

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