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Scotland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Squawka News

Scotland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 11:37, 23 March 2024 | Updated: 11:58, 29 March 2024

Scotland prepare for their second consecutive European Championships looking to make it out of a major international tournament group stage for the first time in their history.

The Tartan Army returned to the Euros for the 2020 edition — played in 2021 — after an absence dating back to 1996, but endured a tough campaign with just a single point from three games, although that did come in a draw with England at Wembley. However, it means that across 11 major tournament appearances, Scotland have won just six of their 33 games and never made it to the knockout rounds.

That said, Spain found out during qualifying how Steve Clarke’s men can provide a shock, so they won’t be written off.

Latest Scotland odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Scotland to win Euro 2024 80/1 with Bet365 1.2%
Scotland to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 12/1 with BetVictor 7.7%
Scotland to win Group A 9/1 with BoyleSports 10%
Scott McTominay to win Golden Boot 250/1 with Bet365 0.4%

Scotland route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Germany (14 June 2024, 8pm, Allianz Arena)
  • Switzerland (19 June 2024, 8pm, RheinEnergieStadion)
  • Hungary (23 June 2024, 8pm, MHPArena)

Scotland’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Scotland win Group A, they’ll face the runner-up team from Group C. That could offer a mouth-watering clash with England — as well as either Denmark, Serbia or Slovenia. Of course, it’s more likely Germany top Group A and the Three Lions top Group C. In that case, Scotland finishing second would pit them against the Group B runner-up, which really could be any one of Spain, holders ItalyCroatia, or the far less likely prospect of Albania. This particular route would most likely result in a quarter-final meeting with England, either Belgium or the Netherlands in the semi-finals, and the likes of GermanySpain or Portugal in the final.

There is also the prospect of Scotland going through as one of the best third-place teams, but that could present any number of scenarios. The only guarantee here is that the Tartan Army would then meet a group winner in the round of 16.

Scotland key players for this year’s European Championship

Scotland top Euros Golden Boot contender: Scott McTominay

  • Key stat: Only Romelu Lukaku (14), Cristiano Ronaldo (10), Kylian Mbappe (9) and Harry Kane (8) scored more goals than Scott McTominay (7) during Euro 2024 Qualifying.

Prior to the qualifying cycle for this tournament, Scott McTominay had just one international goal to his name, coming in a 3-2 win over Israel during 2022 World Cup Qualifying. Now, that total has rocketed to eight. In short, the midfielder went on a one-man mission to drag the Tartan Army to this tournament, scoring seven goals, to leave him behind only Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane in the charts.

That’s some elite company and it’s even more impressive when you consider two of McTominay’s goals came in that famous 2-0 victory over Spain at Hampden Park in March 2023, with three more coming against Cyprus and another two against Georgia, who themselves are currently contesting the playoffs to make it to Germany.

Of course, that goalscoring edge has become a part of McTominay’s club game as well, with the 27-year-old hitting nine goals across all competitions for Manchester United this season. Seven of those have come in the Premier League, with no teammate managing more and only Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford able to equal him.

Scotland primary playmaker: Andy Robertson

  • Key stat: Andy Robertson was the only Scottish player to register more than two assists (3) during Euro 2024 Qualifying.

With the likes of Andy Robertson, Kieran Tierney and Greg Taylor around, it’s no surprise that the left side has long been Scotland’s most important area of the pitch. The former, in particular, is key to their chances at the Euros and not just for his defensive abilities.

Robertson was the only Scottish player to make it to three assists during qualifying, taking him to eight in total for his national team. However, half of those have come in his last nine caps, suggesting he’s finally been able to bring that incredible final-third delivery and creativity he’s shown over the years with Liverpool — with whom he’s provided 64 assists in 287 appearances across all competitions — to the international scene on a consistent basis.

Scotland card magnets & top tacklers: John McGinn

  • Key stat: McGinn ranks second among Aston Villa players in the Premier League this season for fouls (35) and yellow cards (7) while he’s one of just two players to be shown a red card.

Alongside McTominay and Robertson, John McGinn is one of the vital pieces to this Scottish side, with his all-action style of play able to affect the game pretty much anywhere on the pitch.

Of course, that sometimes requires McGinn getting into some physical contests or stopping counter-attacks and, as a result, he does find himself in the referee’s book a little more than he’d like in the Premier League. The same goes with Scotland, with McGinn committing the most fouls among his teammates (13) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

Scotland rising star: Elliot Anderson

Scotland will be desperate to see Elliot Anderson enjoy a strong end to the season. Still just 21, his emergence was one of many high points for Newcastle during the 2022/23 campaign, impressing with his speed and trickery even if his final product still needed work.

The current campaign for Anderson has been disrupted by injuries but he’s on the comeback trail now and quickly regaining fitness, while he’s still managed to average 1.26 chances created per 90 minutes despite long spells on the side.

Anderson has been called up for Scotland in the past but is yet to be capped. However, there’s no doubt he’d add a serious boost of pace and creativity for Clarke and Scottish managers in years to come.

Scotland set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: John McGinn
  • Free kicks: John McGinn, Callum McGregor
  • Corners: Andy Robertson

Scotland tactical analysis and formation

Scotland team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 4.4
  • Shots on target: 3.4
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.25
  • Offsides: 0.75

Clarke has experimented with a few formations, but 3-4-2-1 seems to be his preferred set-up. Scotland are blessed with some rare depth in the midfield and full-back areas, so this is a system that maximises the quality there, but also allows them to morph into a 5-4-1 when coming under pressure against higher-quality opposition.

There are a number of battles for starting places across the pitch, including at goalkeeper where Angus Gunn seems to be ahead of the pack. In front of him, Ryan Porteous, Jack Hendry and Kieran Tierney could make up a three-man centre-back partnership. That said, the latter will be given licence to push forward in support of left wing-back Andy Robertson, so the other two defenders will have to stay solid, with the option of FC Copenhagen’s Scott McKenna to come in as someone more conventional.

Aaron Hickey was the leading option on the right flank, but his injury issues mean we’re more likely to see Everton’s Nathan Patterson. In the middle, Scott McTominay will push forward in search of goals, with Billy Gilmour or Callum McGregor looking to control the tempo. John McGinn nominally lines up behind the striker — most likely the physical Lyndon Dykes — but he will drop back if McTominay makes surging runs, while Ryan Christie will look to provide some creative flair and quality on the ball.

Any one of those midfield positions may be under serious threat from Lewis Ferguson, who is enjoying an excellent season in Serie A with Champions League-chasing Bologna.

Scotland’s latest squad

Zander Clark Goalkeeper 31 Hearts
Craig Gordon Goalkeeper 41 Hearts
Angus Gunn Goalkeeper 28 Norwich
Liam Kelly Goalkeeper 28 Motherwell
Liam Cooper Defender 32 Leeds United
Jack Hendry Defender 28 Al-Ettifaq
Nathan Patterson Defender 22 Everton
Ryan Porteous Defender 24 Watford
Anthony Ralston Defender 25 Celtic
Andy Robertson Defender 30 Liverpool
John Souttar Defender 27 Rangers
Greg Taylor Defender 26 Celtic
Kieran Tierney Defender 26 Real Sociedad
Stuart Armstrong Midfielder 31 Celtic
Ryan Christie Midfielder 29 Bournemouth
Lewis Ferguson Midfielder 24 Bologna
Billy Gilmour Midfielder 22 Brighton
John McGinn Midfielder 29 Aston Villa
Kenny McLean Midfielder 32 Norwich
Scott McTominay Midfielder 27 Manchester United
Che Adams Forward 27 Southampton
Lyndon Dykes Forward 28 QPR
Lawrence Shankland Forward 28 Hearts

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