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Scotland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Squawka News

Scotland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 9:00, 14 June 2024 | Updated: 13:57, 15 June 2024

Scotland prepare for their second consecutive European Championships looking to make it out of a major international tournament group stage for the first time in their history.

The Tartan Army returned to the Euros for the 2020 edition — played in 2021 — after an absence dating back to 1996, but endured a tough campaign with just a single point from three games, although that did come in a draw with England at Wembley. However, it means that across 11 major tournament appearances, Scotland have won just six of their 33 games and never made it to the knockout rounds.

That said, Spain found out during qualifying how Steve Clarke’s men can provide a shock, so they won’t be written off.

Latest Scotland odds to win Euro 2024
Scotland to win Euro 2024
Scotland to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals
Scotland to win Group A
Scott McTominay to win Golden Boot

Scotland route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Germany (14 June 2024, 8pm, Allianz Arena)
  • Switzerland (19 June 2024, 8pm, RheinEnergieStadion)
  • Hungary (23 June 2024, 8pm, MHPArena)

Scotland’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Scotland win Group A, they’ll face the runner-up team from Group C. That could offer a mouth-watering clash with England — as well as either Denmark, Serbia or Slovenia. Of course, it’s more likely Germany top Group A and the Three Lions top Group C. In that case, Scotland finishing second would pit them against the Group B runner-up, which really could be any one of Spain, holders ItalyCroatia, or the far less likely prospect of Albania. This particular route would most likely result in a quarter-final meeting with England, either Belgium or the Netherlands in the semi-finals, and the likes of GermanySpain or Portugal in the final.

There is also the prospect of Scotland going through as one of the best third-place teams, but that could present any number of scenarios. The only guarantee here is that the Tartan Army would then meet a group winner in the round of 16.

Scotland key players for this year’s European Championship

Scotland top Euros Golden Boot contender: Scott McTominay

  • Key stat: Only Romelu Lukaku (14), Cristiano Ronaldo (10), Kylian Mbappe (9) and Harry Kane (8) scored more goals than Scott McTominay (7) during Euro 2024 Qualifying.

Prior to the qualifying cycle for this tournament, Scott McTominay had just one international goal to his name, coming in a 3-2 win over Israel during 2022 World Cup Qualifying. Now, that total has rocketed to eight. In short, the midfielder went on a one-man mission to drag the Tartan Army to this tournament, scoring seven goals, to leave him behind only Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane in the charts.

That’s some elite company and it’s even more impressive when you consider two of McTominay’s goals came in that famous 2-0 victory over Spain at Hampden Park in March 2023, with three more coming against Cyprus and another two against Georgia, who themselves are currently contesting the playoffs to make it to Germany.

Of course, that goalscoring edge has become a part of McTominay’s club game as well, with the 27-year-old hitting 10 goals across all competitions for Manchester United this season. Seven of those came in the Premier League, with two more in the Red Devils’ run to the FA Cup final.

Scotland primary playmaker: Andrew Robertson

  • Key stat: Andrew Robertson was the only Scottish player to register more than two assists (3) during Euro 2024 Qualifying.

With the likes of Andrew Robertson, Kieran Tierney and Greg Taylor around, it’s no surprise that the left side has long been Scotland’s most important area of the pitch. The former, in particular, is key to their chances at the Euros and not just for his defensive abilities.

Robertson was the only Scottish player to make it to three assists during qualifying, taking him to eight in total for his national team. However, half of those have come in his last nine caps, suggesting he’s finally been able to bring that incredible final-third delivery and creativity he’s shown over the years with Liverpool — with whom he’s provided 65 assists in 297 appearances across all competitions — to the international scene on a consistent basis.

Robertson, who has accumulated over 70 international appearances, is backing Steve Clarke’s side to become the first Scottish team to play knockout football in a major tournament. They have never advanced beyond the group stage in 11 major tournaments, which Robertson emphasised as the primary objective for Euro 2024. “We don’t want to have any regrets this time,” he said. “We believe we are a team that can create history.”

Scotland card magnets & top tacklers: John McGinn

  • Key stat: McGinn ranked second among Aston Villa players in the Premier League this season for fouls (39) and yellow cards (9) while he was one of just two players to be sent off.

Alongside McTominay and Robertson, John McGinn is one of the vital pieces to this Scottish side, with his all-action style of play able to affect the game pretty much anywhere on the pitch.

Of course, that sometimes requires McGinn getting into some physical contests or stopping counter-attacks and, as a result, he does find himself in the referee’s book a little more than he’d like in the Premier League. The same goes with Scotland, with McGinn committing the most fouls among his teammates (13) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

Scotland rising star: Billy Gilmour

There are some exciting talents coming through in Scotland right now but Clarke has opted for experience with his final squad. At 23, Billy Gilmour is the youngest player to make the trip to Germany and he goes with a point to prove. There’s no doubting the diminutive midfielder is a top talent, but he’s yet to fully ignite his career. That said, he heads into the Euros off the back of making 24 starts for Brighton in the Premier League last season and will be important in helping Scotland maintain some possession against superior sides.

Scotland set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: John McGinn
  • Free kicks: John McGinn, Callum McGregor
  • Corners: Andy Robertson

Scotland tactical analysis and formation

Scotland team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 4.4
  • Shots on target: 3.4
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.25
  • Offsides: 0.75

Clarke has experimented with a few formations, but 3-4-2-1 seems to be his preferred set-up. Scotland are blessed with some rare depth in the midfield and full-back areas, so this is a system that maximises the quality there, but also allows them to morph into a 5-4-1 when coming under pressure against higher-quality opposition.

There are a number of battles for starting places across the pitch, including at goalkeeper where Angus Gunn seems to be ahead of the pack. In front of him, Ryan Porteous, Jack Hendry and Kieran Tierney could make up a three-man centre-back partnership. That said, the latter will be given licence to push forward in support of left wing-back Andy Robertson, so the other two defenders will have to stay solid, with the option of FC Copenhagen’s Scott McKenna to come in as someone more conventional.

Aaron Hickey was the leading option on the right flank, but his injury issues mean we’re more likely to see Celtic’s Anthony Ralston. In the middle, Scott McTominay will push forward in search of goals, with Billy Gilmour or Callum McGregor looking to control the tempo. John McGinn nominally lines up behind the striker — most likely Che Adams following Lyndon Dykes’ injury — but he will drop back if McTominay makes surging runs, while Ryan Christie will look to provide some creative flair and quality on the ball.

Scotland’s final squad

Zander Clark Goalkeeper 31 Hearts
Angus Gunn Goalkeeper 28 Norwich
Liam Kelly Goalkeeper 28 Motherwell
Liam Cooper Defender 32 Leeds
Grant Hanley Defender 32 Norwich
Andrew Robertson Defender 30 Liverpool
Jack Hendry Defender 29 Al-Ettifaq
Scott McKenna Defender 27 Copenhagen
Kieran Tierney Defender 27 Real Sociedad
Greg Taylor Defender 26 Celtic
Ross McCrorie Defender 26 Bristol City
Anthony Ralston Defender 25 Celtic
Ryan Porteous Defender 25 Watford
Kenny McLean Midfielder 32 Norwich
Ryan Jack Midfielder 32 Free agent
Stuart Armstrong Midfielder 32 Southampton
Callum McGregor Midfielder 31 Celtic
John McGinn Midfielder 29 Aston Villa
Ryan Christie Midfielder 29 Bournemouth
Scott McTominay Midfielder 27 Man Utd
Billy Gilmour Midfielder 23 Brighton
James Forrest Forward 32 Celtic
Lawrence Shankland Forward 28 Hearts
Che Adams Forward 27 Southampton

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