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Portugal odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Harry Edwards

Portugal odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 16:33, 23 March 2024 | Updated: 12:43, 28 March 2024

Portugal will be travelling to Germany hoping to win the European Championships for the second time.

It’s now just under eight years since Portugal won their first major trophy, beating France after extra-time in the Euro 2016 final. Their defence ended at the round of 16 in 2021, with Portugal beaten by Belgium.

There was also disappointment at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar as Portugal were knocked out at the quarter-final stage by Morocco. That brought the end of the Fernando Santos era, with Roberto Martinez coming in to replace him.

It’s been a perfect start to life as Portugal manager for Martinez, with the team given an 11.1% chance of going all the way. But with their run, we may see Portugal’s tournament end at the semi-final stage.

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Latest Portugal odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Portugal to win Euro 2024 8/1 with BetGoodwin 11.1%
Portugal to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 11/8 with BetVictor 42.1%
Portugal to win Group F 1/2 with Sky Bet 66.7%
Cristiano Ronaldo to win Golden Boot 14/1 with Bet365 6.7%

Portugal route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Czech Republic (18 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)
  • Turkey (22 June 2024, 5pm, Signal Iduna Park)
  • Georgia (26 June 2024, 8pm, Veltins-Arena)

Portugal’s potential knockout stage opponents

Portugal are in one of the positions where things are quite complicated from the start, with three opponents from different groups available if they win Group F. These could be the likes of Serbia, Croatia and Switzerland. If they win that there’s the potential to face the likes of Netherlands or Slovakia, with Spain or Germany in the semi-finals. Then, if they go all the way, we could see a repeat of the Euro 2016 final between Portugal and France.

Portugal key players for this year’s European Championship

Portugal top Euros Golden Boot contender: Cristiano Ronaldo

  • Key stat: Cristiano Ronaldo averaged a goal every 4.7 shots in Euro 2024 qualifying.

There’s only option here. Cristiano Ronaldo was the second-top scorer in Euro 2024 qualifying, with only Romelu Lukaku (14) scoring more than his 10. Three of those goals came from the penalty spot, with Ronaldo having the added opportunity of adding to his tally.

Ronaldo has been away from the spotlight slightly since his move to Saudi Arabia, but he’s still been banging in the goals. Aged 39, Ronaldo has scored 30 goals from 33 games across all competitions for Al Nassr, including 23 in 22 in the league.

For Portugal, Ronaldo has scored in six of his nine games in Euro 2024 qualifying, and is the all-time top scorer in men’s international football with 128 goals. Twenty-two of those goals have come in major tournaments, with Ronaldo netting in all 10 of his World Cup/European Championships.

Portugal primary playmaker: Bruno Fernandes

  • Key stat: Bruno Fernandes is averaging 3.03 chances created per game in the Premier League this season.

Bruno Fernandes finished Euro 2024 qualifying with eight assists, more than any other player. And we shouldn’t be surprised. No matter what people may think of his attitude, Fernandes is one of the most creative players in Europe.

This season, no one has created more chances in Europe’s top five leagues than Fernandes’ 82. Of those 82, 56 have been from open play, with only Martin Odegaard (62) creating more in the Premier League. But that means Fernandes has created 26 chances from set play, being a real threat in more than one area of the game.

And when it comes to major tournaments, Fernandes recorded three assists at the World Cup in 2022 including two in the 3-2 win over Ghana.

Portugal card magnets & top tacklers: Joao Palhinha

  • Key stat: Joao Palhinha has averaged 4.6 tackles per game in the Premier League this season.

Sticking with the Premier League theme, there isn’t a better tackler in Europe this season than Joao Palhinha. The Fulham man is one of just three players to have made at least 100 tackles in Europe’s top five leagues, but he sits alone at the top with 110.

On top of his 110 tackles, Palhinha has committed 39 fouls, and he gets yellow cards at a frequent rate. The midfielder has been booked 12 times in the Premier League so far, just two behind the all-time record in the competition. Only Cadiz’s Ivan Alejo (15) has been booked across Europe’s top five leagues this season. With 24 games so far, Palhinha has been booked in exactly half of his Premier League appearances this season. He’s also been booked in both of his matches after serving a two-game suspension for reaching the 10 yellow threshold.

Portugal rising star: Joao Neves

This could be the tournament that adds another zero to Joao Neves’ price tag. The Benfica teenager is already on the wishlists of many of Europe’s top clubs having, so much so that the club have had to make a few clarifications.

In January, Benfica had to release a statement quashing reports that they had started talks with Manchester United over Neves. A month prior, Benfica manager Roger Schmidt had insisted that the club weren’t open to selling the midfielder in the winter transfer window.

Portugal set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Cristiano Ronaldo
  • Free kicks: Cristiano Ronaldo
  • Corners: Bruno Fernandes

Portugal tactical analysis and formation

Portugal team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 7.2
  • Shots on target: 8.1
  • Shots on target conceded: 1.8
  • Offsides: 2.5

After starting with a 3-4-3, Roberto Martinez has moved to a back four for Portugal and it seems like that’s his plan going forward. The main question, then, is whether he goes with a front two or just a sole striker. He’s played with a two three times, but the rest of the time Martinez has used one striker, even when going with a back three.

That comes as part of a three-man attack with Ronaldo through the middle, flanked by Rafael Leao and Bernardo Silva. So you’d expect that to continue onto the Euros this summer, though Goncalo Ramos and Joao Felix provide other options through the middle.

The midfield three more or less picks itself too. Joao Palhinha will start at the base of the midfield, with Bruno Fernandes on one side. Otavio has sometimes been used as the third midfielder, but Vitinha may just get the nod. This gives Portugal the option to move to a midfield two when on the ball, allowing Fernandes to join the attack and create from an advanced position.

Then we have the defence. Diogo Costa looks to have the goalkeeper spot nailed down, but Rui Patricio will be hoping to push him all the way. Joao Cancelo will likely play on the left, giving Portugal the option for more control on the ball, while Nelson Semedo provides the width on the right. Ruben Dias will be one of the centre-backs, but his partner will be an interesting one. Does Martinez go for the youth of 22-year-old Goncalo Inacio, or the experience of 41-year-old Pepe?

Portugal’s latest squad

Rui Patricio Goalkeeper 36 Roma
Jose Sa Goalkeeper 31 Wolves
Samuel Soares Goalkeeper 21 Benfica
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper 24 Porto
Nelson Semedo Defender 30 Wolves
Pepe Defender 41 Porto
Ruben Dias Defender 26 Man City
Antonio Silva Defender 20 Benfica
Toti Gomew Defender 25 Wolves
Goncalo Inacio Defender 22 Sporting CP
Diogo Leite Defender 25 Union Berlin
Joao Mario Defender 24 Porto
Nuno Mendes Defender 21 PSG
Danilo Pereira Defender 32 PSG
Joao Cancelo Defender 29 Barcelona
Diogo Dalot Defender 25 Man Utd
Joao Palhinha Midfielder 28 Fulham
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder 29 Man Utd
Bernardo Silva Midfielder 29 Man City
Joao Neves Midfielder 19 Benfica
Matheus Nunes Midfielder 25 Man City
Ruben Neves Midfielder 27 Al Hilal
Otavio Midfielder 29 Al Nassr
Vitinha Midfielder 24 PSG
Bruma Forward 29 Braga
Goncalo Ramos Forward 22 PSG
Jota Silva Forward 24 Vitoria
Rafael Leao Forward 24 AC Milan
Francisco Conceicao Forward 21 Porto
Dany Mota Forward 25 Monza
Cristiano Ronaldo Forward 39 Al Nassr
Joao Felix Forward 24 Barcelona

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