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Portugal odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Harry Edwards

Portugal odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 8:42, 9 June 2024 | Updated: 14:58, 15 June 2024

Portugal will travel to Germany hoping to win the European Championship again.

It’s now just under eight years since Portugal won their first major trophy, beating France after extra-time in the Euro 2016 final. Their defence ended at the round of 16 in 2021, with Portugal beaten by Belgium.

There was also disappointment at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar as Portugal were knocked out at the quarter-final stage by Morocco. That brought the end of the Fernando Santos era, with Roberto Martinez coming in to replace him.

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It’s been a perfect start to life as Portugal manager for Martinez, with the team given an 11.8% chance of going all the way. But with their run, we may see Portugal’s tournament end at the semi-final stage.

Latest Portugal odds to win Euro 2024
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Team
Portugal to win Euro 2024
Portugal to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals
Portugal to win Group F
Cristiano Ronaldo to win Golden Boot

Portugal route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Czech Republic (18 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)
  • Turkey (22 June 2024, 5pm, Signal Iduna Park)
  • Georgia (26 June 2024, 8pm, Veltins-Arena)

Portugal’s potential knockout stage opponents

Portugal are in one of the positions where things are quite complicated from the start, with three opponents from different groups available if they win Group F. These could be the likes of Serbia, Croatia and Switzerland. If they win that there’s the potential to face the likes of Netherlands or Slovakia, with Spain or Germany in the semi-finals. Then, if they go all the way, we could see a repeat of the Euro 2016 final between Portugal and France.

Portugal key players for this year’s European Championship

Portugal top Euros Golden Boot contender: Cristiano Ronaldo

  • Key stat: Cristiano Ronaldo averaged a goal every 4.7 shots in Euro 2024 qualifying.

There’s only one option here. Cristiano Ronaldo was the second-top scorer in Euro 2024 qualifying, with only Romelu Lukaku (14) scoring more than his 10. Three of those goals came from the penalty spot, with Ronaldo having the added opportunity of adding to his tally.

Ronaldo has been away from the spotlight slightly since his move to Saudi Arabia, but he’s still been banging in the goals. Aged 39, Ronaldo has scored 64 goals from 70 games across all competitions for Al Nassr, including 49 in 47 in the league.

For Portugal, Ronaldo has scored in six of his nine games in Euro 2024 qualifying, and is the all-time top scorer in men’s international football with 128 goals. Twenty-two of those goals have come in major tournaments, with Ronaldo netting in all 10 of his World Cup/European Championships.

Portugal primary playmaker: Bruno Fernandes

  • Key stat: Bruno Fernandes is averaging 3.23 chances created per game in the Premier League this season.

Bruno Fernandes finished Euro 2024 qualifying with eight assists, more than any other player. And we shouldn’t be surprised. No matter what people may think of his attitude, Fernandes is one of the most creative players in Europe.

Only Kevin Stöger (127) created more chances than Fernandes (114) in Europe’s top five leagues. Of those 114, 75 have been from open play, with only Martin Odegaard (88) creating more in the Premier League. But that means Fernandes has created 39 chances from set play, being a real threat in more than one area of the game.

And when it comes to major tournaments, Fernandes recorded three assists at the World Cup in 2022 including two in the 3-2 win over Ghana.

Portugal card magnets & top tacklers: Joao Palhinha

  • Key stat: Joao Palhinha has averaged 4.6 tackles per game in the Premier League this season.

Sticking with the Premier League theme, there isn’t a better tackler in Europe this season than Joao Palhinha. The Fulham man is one of just seven players to have made at least 100 tackles in Europe’s top five leagues, but he sits alone at the top with 152.

On top of his 110 tackles, Palhinha has committed 52 fouls, and he gets yellow cards at a frequent rate. The midfielder has been booked 13 times in the Premier League, one behind the record in the competition. Iván Alejo (17), Leandro Paredes (15) and Luca Ranieri (14) have been booked across Europe’s top five leagues this season.

Portugal rising star: Joao Neves

This could be the tournament that adds another zero to Joao Neves’ price tag. The Benfica teenager is already on the wishlists of many of Europe’s top clubs, so much so that the club has had to make a few clarifications.

In January, Benfica released a statement quashing reports that they had started talks with Manchester United over Neves. A month prior, Benfica manager Roger Schmidt had insisted that the club wasn’t open to selling the midfielder in the winter transfer window.

Portugal set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Cristiano Ronaldo
  • Free kicks: Cristiano Ronaldo
  • Corners: Bruno Fernandes

Portugal tactical analysis and formation

Portugal team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 7.2
  • Shots on target: 8.1
  • Shots on target conceded: 1.8
  • Offsides: 2.5

After starting with a 3-4-3, Roberto Martinez has moved to a back four for Portugal and it seems like that’s his plan going forward. The main question, then, is whether he goes with a front two or just a sole striker. He’s played with a two three times, but the rest of the time Martinez has used one striker, even when going with a back three.

That comes as part of a three-man attack with Ronaldo through the middle, flanked by Rafael Leao and Bernardo Silva. So you’d expect that to continue onto the Euros this summer, though Goncalo Ramos and Joao Felix provide other options through the middle.

The midfield three more or less picks itself too. Joao Palhinha will start at the base of the midfield, with Bruno Fernandes on one side. Otavio has sometimes been used as the third midfielder, but Vitinha may just get the nod. This gives Portugal the option to move to a midfield two when on the ball, allowing Fernandes to join the attack and create from an advanced position.

Then we have the defence. Diogo Costa looks to have the goalkeeper spot nailed down, but Rui Patricio will be hoping to push him all the way. Joao Cancelo will likely play on the left, giving Portugal the option for more control on the ball, while Nelson Semedo provides the width on the right. Ruben Dias will be one of the centre-backs, but his partner will be an interesting one. Does Martinez go for the youth of 22-year-old Goncalo Inacio, or the experience of 41-year-old Pepe?

Portugal’s final Euro 2024 squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Rui Patrício Goalkeeper 36 Roma
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper 24 Porto
José Sá Goalkeeper 31 Wolves
Pepe Defender 41 Porto
Danilo Pereira Defender 32 Paris Saint-Germain
Rúben Dias Defender 27 Manchester City
João Cancelo Defender 29 Barcelona
Nélson Semedo Defender 30 Wolves
Nuno Mendes Defender 21 Paris Saint-Germain
Diogo Dalot Defender 25 Manchester United
António Silva Defender 20 Benfica
Gonçalo Inácio Defender 22 Sporting CP
Bernardo Silva Midfielder 29 Manchester City
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder 29 Manchester United
Rúben Neves Midfielder 27 Al Hilal
João Palhinha Midfielder 28 Fulham
Matheus Nunes Midfielder 29 Manchester City
Vitinha Midfielder 24 Paris Saint-Germain
João Neves Midfielder 19 Benfica
Cristiano Ronaldo Forward 39 Al Nassr
João Félix Forward 24 Barcelona
Diogo Jota Forward 27 Liverpool
Rafael Leão Forward 24 AC Milan
Gonçalo Ramos Forward 22 Paris Saint-Germain
Pedro Neto Forward 24 Wolves
Francisco Conceição Forward 21 Porto

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