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Poland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Squawka News

Poland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 13:00, 31 March 2024 | Updated: 22:50, 3 April 2024

Poland will look to make it out of the group stages for just the second time in European Championships history in Germany this summer.

After failing to qualify at all prior to 2008, Poland are now preparing for their fifth straight Euros, but it hasn’t been a happy hunting ground so far. In contrast to their World Cup record, finishing third twice and making at least the round of 16 on five occasions, the Eagles have won only two of 14 all-time European Championship matches. Both of those victories came in 2016 when they reached the quarter-finals, but went out on penalties to eventual winners Portugal.

Poland endured a tough qualifying cycle for Euro 2024, winning just three of their eight games and finishing third in Group E, four points behind both Albania and the Czech Republic. However, they advanced to the playoffs via their Uefa Nations League performance, managing to make it over the line with a 5-1 win over Estonia and a penalty shootout victory against Wales following a tense 0-0 draw.

Read on for everything you need to know about Poland at Euro 2024.

Latest Poland odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Poland to win Euro 2024 150/1 with Bet365 0.7%
Poland to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 20/1 with BetVictor 4.8%
Poland to win Group D 10/1 with BoyleSports 9.1%
Robert Lewandowski to win Golden Boot 50/1 with Bet365

Poland route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Netherlands (16 June 2024, 3pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • Austria (21 June 2024, 6pm, Olympstadion)
  • France (25 June 2024, 6pm, Signal Iduna Park)

Poland’s potential knockout stage opponents

Poland have been drawn into Group D, sitting alongside France, the Netherlands and Austria, making it one of the toughest sections in the whole tournament. In the unlikely event they topple the traditional European giants and finish first, that would set up a round of 16 tie against the Group F runner-up; most likely to be either the Czech Republic, Turkey or Georgia.

Second is a more reasonable aim, however. That eventuality would pair them against the Group E runner-up in the last 16, which will likely be one of Slovakia, Ukraine or Romania. Win that and their most likely quarter-final opponents are Portugal, followed by either hosts Germany or whoever won the ‘group of death’ out of Italy, Spain or Croatia. In the final, any one of France, the Netherlands, Belgium, a group of death runner-up or England could await.

Chances are Poland’s clash against Austria on June 21 could be key in giving one of the nations a shot at making it through as one of the best third-place teams. That would open up any number of possibilities for the round of 16, with the only guarantee being that they’ll face a group winner.

Poland key players for this year’s European Championship

Poland top Euros Golden Boot contender: Robert Lewandowski

  • Key stat: Robert Lewandowski is Poland’s record goalscorer with 82 goals, at least 34 more than any other player.

He has more goals and appearances than any other player and is the current captain. Simply put, Robert Lewandowski is the dreammaker for Poland. The difference between failure and success.

At 35 years old, the striker is well past the peak of his powers but remains a potent threat, scoring three goals during qualifying while, at club level, he has two goals and nine assists in 40 appearances across all competitions for Barcelona this season.

Thanks, in part, to a relative lack of quality around him, Lewandowski has endured his fair share of frustration at major international tournaments, but has still managed to chip in with seven goals across 18 World Cup and European Championship appearances combined — including three at Euro 2020 to leave him just two shy of Golden Boot winners Patrik Schick and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Lewandowski is undoubtedly one of the greatest players of his generation and this may well be his final major international tournament. He deserves to go out on a high.

Poland primary playmaker: Piotr Zielinski

  • Key stat: No Polish player registered more assists than Piotr Zielinski (2) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

In reality, this section should probably belong to Lewandowski as well, but Poland are going to need others to step up this summer, especially given the terribly difficult group they’ve been drawn into.

Piotr Zielinski is one such star who needs to show his best form and, in fairness, he generally has done at international level in recent years. The Napoli midfielder has provided 10 assists in 60 caps since the start of 2018 alone, while for the Partenopei, that metric stands at 37 in 257 appearances across all competitions since the start of the 2018/19 campaign.

Only Matteo Politano (56) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (50) have created more chances for Napoli than Zielinski (44) in Serie A so far this season.

Poland card magnets & top tacklers: Karol Linetty

  • Key stat: Karol Linetty has been booked more (8) than any other Polish player in Europe’s top seven leagues so far this season.

For the likes of Lewandowski and Zielinski to thrive, they’re going to need someone keeping the door shut behind them and Karol Linetty might be that man. The Torino man is very adept at sniffing out danger, while he’s absolutely not afraid of putting his foot in to stop a counter-attack, as evidenced by his eight yellow cards and 36 fouls in Serie A this season; the most of any Polish player in Europe’s top seven leagues.

It’s not pretty, but those qualities could come in very handy for Poland when trying to stop the likes of France and the Netherlands.

Poland rising star: Kacper Urbanski

He’s yet to be capped at senior level, but if Kacper Urbanski keeps improving at this current rate at club level, it’s only a matter of time.

Still only 19, Urbanski has appeared 17 times across league and cup play for Bologna this season, including seven starts. He’s been part of a side that has shocked Italian football by climbing into the fourth and final Champions League spot having not finished above ninth since 2002.

Excellent performances against Cagliari and Empoli have stood out since new year, with Urbanski completing six dribbles and creating once chance in the former, and attempting five shots in the latter despite playing a slightly deeper midfield role.

Poland have friendlies against Ukraine and Turkey coming up before the Euros begin and Michal Probierz might just be tempted to test Urbanski at senior level.

Poland set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Robert Lewandowski
  • Free kicks: Robert Lewandowski
  • Corners:Piotr Zielinski

Poland tactical analysis and formation

Poland team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 6.8
  • Shots on target: 4.9
  • Offsides: 1.17

Probierz has long played three or five at the back and there’s nothing to suggest he’ll change ahead of the Euros.

Wojciech Szczesny remains the undisputed number one, with English-based defenders Jakub Kiwior and Jan Bednarek lining up alongside Hellas Verona’s Pawel Dawidowicz at centre-back. Usually an effective, pacey winger, Przemyslaw Frankowski has been the preferred right wing-back recently, though Aston Villa’s Matty Cash could fill that role. On the left, it should be 22-year-old Nicola Zalewski of Roma.

Linetty could win back his place as the midfield destroyer, especially for games against France and the Netherlands. That’ll leave Zielinski and Atlanta United’s Bartosz Slisz to offer more creativity for what has been an effective forward duo of Lewandowski and Karol Swiderski, who recently joined Hellas Verona on loan from Charlotte FC.

Poland’s latest squad

Marcin Bulka Goalkeeper 24 Nice
Lukasz Skorupski Goalkeeper 32 Bologna
Wojciech Szczesny Goalkeeper 33 Juventus
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender 23 Empoli
Jakub Kiwior Defender 24 Arsenal
Tymoteusz Puchacz Defender 25 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Jan Bednarek Defender 27 Southampton
Pawel Bochniewicz Defender 28 Heerenveen
Pawel Dawidowicz Defender 28 Hellas Verona
Bartosz Bereszynski Defender 31 Empoli
Bartosz Salamon Defender 32 Lech Poznan
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder 22 Roma
Sebastian Szymanski Midfielder 28 Fenerbahce
Przemyslaw Frankowski Midfielder 28 RC Lens
Piotr Zielinski Midfielder 29 Napoli
Pawel Wszolek Midfielder 31 Legia Warsaw
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder 32 Jagiellonia Bialystok
Kamil Grosicki Midfielder 35 Pogon Szczecin
Damian Szymanski Midfielder 28 AEK Athens
Adam Buksa Forward 27 Antalyaspor
Krzysztof Piatek Forward 28 Istanbul BB
Robert Lewandowski Forward 35 Barcelona
Karol Swiderski Forward 27 Hellas Verona

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