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Poland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & key players

By Squawka News

Poland odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 7:00, 22 June 2024

Poland became the first team to be eliminated at Euro 2024 following their 3-1 loss to Austria.

After failing to qualify at all prior to 2008, Poland are now preparing for their fifth straight Euros, but it hasn’t been a happy hunting ground so far. In contrast to their World Cup record, finishing third twice and making at least the round of 16 on five occasions, the Eagles have won only two of 14 all-time European Championship matches. Both of those victories came in 2016 when they reached the quarter-finals, but went out on penalties to eventual winners Portugal.

Poland endured a tough qualifying cycle for Euro 2024, winning just three of their eight games and finishing third in Group E, four points behind both Albania and the Czech Republic. However, they advanced to the playoffs via their UEFA Nations League performance, managing to make it over the line with a 5-1 win over Estonia and a penalty-shootout victory against Wales following a tense 0-0 draw.

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Read on for everything you need to know about Poland at Euro 2024.

Latest Poland odds to win Euro 2024
Poland to win Euro 2024
Poland to win Group D
Robert Lewandowski to win Golden Boot

Poland route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • 1-2 vs Netherlands (16 June 2024, 3pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • 1-3 vs Austria (21 June 2024, 6pm, Olympstadion)
  • France (25 June 2024, 6pm, Signal Iduna Park)

Poland key players for this year’s European Championship

Poland top Euros Golden Boot contender: Robert Lewandowski

  • Key stat: Robert Lewandowski is Poland’s record goalscorer with 82 goals, at least 34 more than any other player.

He has more goals and appearances than any other player and is the current captain. Simply put, Robert Lewandowski is the dreammaker for Poland. The difference between failure and success.

At 35 years old, the striker is well past the peak of his powers but remains a potent threat, scoring three goals during qualifying while, at club level, he delivered 26 goals and nine assists in 49 appearances across all competitions for Barcelona.

Thanks, in part, to a relative lack of quality around him, Lewandowski has endured his fair share of frustration at major international tournaments, but has still managed to chip in with seven goals across 18 World Cup and European Championship appearances combined — including three at Euro 2020 to leave him just two shy of Golden Boot winners Patrik Schick and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Lewandowski is undoubtedly one of the greatest players of his generation and this may well be his final major international tournament. He deserves to go out on a high. However, he will miss Poland’s opening game due to injury.

Poland primary playmaker: Piotr Zielinski

  • Key stat: No Polish player registered more assists than Piotr Zielinski (2) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

In reality, this section should probably belong to Lewandowski as well, but Poland are going to need others to step up this summer, especially given the terribly difficult group they’ve been drawn into.

Piotr Zielinski is one such star who needs to show his best form and, in fairness, he generally has done at international level in recent years. The Napoli midfielder has provided 10 assists in 62 caps since the start of 2018 alone, while for the Partenopei, that metric stands at 33 in 245 Serie A appearances since the start of the 2018/19 campaign. Zielinski ended the 2023/24 Serie A campaign with 48 chances created at an average of 2.23 per 90 minutes.

Poland card magnets & top tacklers: Pawel Dawidowicz

  • Key stat: Pawel Davidowicz (33) committed the joint-most fouls among players in Poland’s squad in Europe’s top seven leagues in 2023/24.

Karol Linetty was the biggest tackler and fouler among Polish players in Europe’s top seven leagues in 2023/24, but he is not in Poland’s squad. So Pawel Dawidowicz will have to pick up his dirty work. Dawidowicz plies his trade in Serie A with Hellas Verona and played 28 matches with 53 tackles and 33 fouls. That translates to 2.23 tackles per 90 minutes and 1.39 fouls, also resulting in five yellow cards. He’s expected to start on the left of Poland’s back three, so could pick up a few fouls and yellows against opposition wingers.

Poland rising star: Kacper Urbanski

Kacper Urbanski hadn’t made a senior appearance for Poland before June, but now he has two and is in their squad for Euro 2024.

Still only 19, Urbanski appeared 25 times across league and cup play for Bologna this season, including 10 starts. He’s been part of a side that has shocked Italian football by climbing into the fifth and final Champions League spot having not finished above ninth since 2002.

Excellent performances against Cagliari and Empoli have stood out since new year, with Urbanski completing six dribbles and creating once chance in the former, and attempting five shots in the latter despite playing a slightly deeper midfield role.

Poland set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Robert Lewandowski
  • Free kicks: Robert Lewandowski
  • Corners:Piotr Zielinski

Poland tactical analysis and formation

Poland team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 6.8
  • Shots on target: 4.9
  • Offsides: 1.17

Probierz has long played three or five at the back and there’s nothing to suggest he’ll change ahead of the Euros.

Wojciech Szczesny remains the undisputed number one, with English-based defenders Jakub Kiwior and Jan Bednarek lining up alongside Hellas Verona’s Pawel Dawidowicz at centre-back. Usually an effective, pacey winger, Przemyslaw Frankowski has been the preferred right wing-back recently, and has nailed down that spot after the injury to Matty Cash. On the left, it should be 22-year-old Nicola Zalewski of Roma.

Karol Linetty misses out, so Bartosz Slisz will likely drop down as the midfield destroyer especially for games against France and the Netherlands. That’ll leave Zielinski and Jakub Piotrowski to offer more creativity for what has been an effective forward duo of Lewandowski and Karol Swiderski.

Poland’s final squad

Wojciech Szczesny Goalkeeper 34 Juventus
Lukasz Skorupski Goalkeeper 33 Bologna
Marcin Bulka Goalkeeper 24 Nice
Bartosz Salamon Defender 33 Lech Poznan
Pawel Dawidowicz Defender 29 Hellas Verona
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender 24 Empoli
Jan Bednarek Defender 28 Southampton
Jakub Kiwior Defender 24 Arsenal
Tymoteusz Puchacz Defender 25 Kaiserslautern
Bartosz Bereszynski Defender 31 Empoli
Jakub Piotrowski Midfielder 26 Ludogorets
Jakub Moder Midfielder 25 Brighton
Piotr Zielinski Midfielder 30 Napoli
Kamil Grosicki Midfielder 36 Pogon Szczecin
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder 32 Jagiellonia Bialystok
Damian Szymanski Midfielder 28 AEK Athens
Przemyslaw Frankowski Midfielder 29 Lens
Sebastian Szymanski Midfielder 25 Fenerbahce
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder 22 Roma
Bartosz Slisz Midfielder 25 Atlanta United
Michal Skoras Midfielder 24 Club Brugge
Kacper Urbanski Midfielder 19 Bologna
Karol Swiderski Forward 27 Hellas Verona
Robert Lewandowski Forward 35 Barcelona
Adam Buksa Forward 27 Antalyaspor
Krzysztof Piatek Forward 28 Istanbul Basaksehir