Outright Odds

Netherlands odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 17:30, 25 March 2024 | Updated: 7:06, 29 March 2024

The Netherlands will seek to end a nearly four-decade wait for an international at Euro 2024 this summer.

Oranje was disappointed at the last tournament, a pan-European affair, when they were bounced out soon after escaping the group phase. Frank de Boer was removed as head coach before Louis van Gaal returned and guided the Netherlands to a quarter-final exit at the recent World Cup finals.

There’s a sense of déjà vu with Ronald Koeman following in Van Gaal’s footsteps, and though the Dutch boast a string of high-profile names that can melt into a formidable team, you never know what to expect.

Latest Netherlands odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Netherlands to win Euro 2024 16/1 with Bet365 5.9%
Netherlands to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 10/3 with BetVictor 23.1%
Netherlands to win Group D 3/1 with BetVictor 25%
Memphis Depay to win Golden Boot 40/1 with Bet365 2.4%

Netherlands route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Poland (16 June 2024, 2pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • France (21 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)
  • Austria (25 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)

Netherlands potential knockout stage opponents

If the Netherlands win Group D, they’ll face the runner-up in Group F: Turkey, Portugal or Play-off winner C (Georgia/Greece). Then, in the quarter-final, either the winner of Group E or the best third-placed team from either Group A, B, C, or D, likely Belgium, will play Koeman’s side. If the Dutch reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face England if they win their group. And then perhaps Germany and Spain or a reunion with France in the final.

Netherlands key players for this year’s European Championship

Netherlands top Euros Golden Boot contender: Memphis Depay

  • Key stat: Only Robin van Persie (50) has scored more international goals for the Netherlands than Depay (44).

It’s not been the most productive campaign for Memphis Depay, who has floated in and out of Diego Simeone’s squad, whether through injury or tactical reasons. However, it’s fair to say he’s peaking at the right moment. He notably scored the all-important goal that forced extra-time in Atletico Madrid’s recent Champions League round of 16 clashes with Inter Milan, which saw the Spaniard progress through successfully winning the duel from 12 yards.

Depay might not be guaranteed a starting berth at his club, but it’s a different story with the Netherlands, as he’s among the first names on Koeman’s teamsheet. At one point, the Dutch heavily depended on the Moordrecht native, which has eased in recent internationals. He nevertheless remains Oranje’s most consistent attacking threat. The recent international outing against Scotland was his first since in a year.

By the start of Euro 2024, he hopes to be closer to Robin van Persie’s mark of 50 international goals, which is a national team record; Depay is currently six strikes from equalling that haul.

Netherlands primary playmaker: Joey Veerman

  • Key stat: No one currently eligible to represent Oranje has created more club-level goals than Joey Veerman (11).

Joey Veerman could be on the move following Euro 2024, especially if he backs up what many observers are starting to believe. He’s been incredible for PSV Eindhoven in their relentless march to Dutch championship glory. The midfielder, once favourably compared to Andrea Pirlo by Rafael van der Vaart, leads the Eredivisie’s ‘assist king’ race and is by some distance the most creative at club level among his international teammates. Putting all this aside, chances are he’ll be coming off the bench as he predominantly occupies the same piece of land as Frenkie de Jong, arguably Oranje’s most valuable player. Koeman may spring a surprise and field the pair, but that’s increasingly becoming unlikely, with Veerman touted to enter the field late and punish tired legs.

Netherlands card magnets & top tacklers: Marteen De Roon 

  • Key stat: De Roon has picked up more yellow cards across Europe’s big five leagues this season (9) than any Netherlands player.

“They love it in Italy, where you recover balls,” Marten de Roon said while explaining his nickname, ‘The Wavebreaker.’ We play with high wingbacks who go forward a lot. I stay back for balance. If the opponents get the ball and try to break quickly, there’s often me back there to break up the play. It can be with a foul, taking the ball, or smart positioning.”

Committing those fouls has cost him dearly in Serie A this season, but the Zwijndrecht-born midfielder remains integral to Atalanta and Oranje, although he’s since lost his starting berth. His clubmate Teun Koopmeiners, linked with Juventus, has committed an unhealthy 42 fouls, two fewer than Mats Wieffer, who continues to impress in the Feyenoord engine room.

Netherlands rising star: Xavi Simons

It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see a teenager in a Dutch international squad, but there doesn’t seem to be room unless 18-year-old Jorrel Hato, who recently penned a lengthy new deal with boyhood club Ajax, gets the nod. Even though he’s played close to 70 league matches at the highest level, Xavi Simons remains a rising star who’s yet to imprint himself on the international stage.

The former Barcelona academy graduate, on loan at Bundesliga outfit RB Leipzig from Paris Saint-Germain, has made 12 appearances for Oranje without creating or scoring a single goal. understandably, it’s eating him up, though national team boss Koeman is encouraging patience as that first strike isn’t too far away. His performances at club level since temporarily joining PSV in 2022 — 31 goals and 25 assists through 84 appearances in all competitions — have been encouraging, hence the confidence it will not be long before he’s brought that form while donning an orange jersey.

Netherlands set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Memphis Depay
  • Free kicks: Memphis Depay
  • Corners: Cody Gakpo

Netherlands tactical analysis and formation

Netherlands team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 7.25
  • Corners conceded: 2.5
  • Shots on target: 6.4
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.6
  • Offsides: 1.25

Perhaps the most significant dilemma facing Koeman heading into this summer’s tournament is the shape of his starting lineup. Since returning, he’s utilised both a back-four and three, with him leading towards the latter in recent outings.

“It was quite a big issue because when he was announced to be the manager again, he said he would go back to the 4-3-3, the traditional way, going back to pressing the opponent with wingers,” Ronald de Boer told BBC’s Scottish Football Podcast recently.

“But then, with the 4-0 defeat against France and some other bad results, they didn’t look strong. I think he realized the result was more important at the moment than the traditional 4-3-3, and it worked well.

“For me, you have to look to the opponent. If you feel that against this opponent, we can play 4-3-3, go for it. If you have 80% of the time on the ball, you don’t need three men at the back.

“But if you play France, accept that underdog role and be realistic. Don’t be naive. I think that is what Koeman now realises—when you’re up against stronger teams, you don’t always have the best team to win in football. You have to be smart. I think that is what Koeman does now.”

Going with three at the back, which allows either a false nine sandwiched between wide forwards or two up top, is an understandable approach, given how the Dutch’s greatest strength lies in defence. Nathan Ake and Virgil van Dijk have shown their capability of joining and building up attacks in the Premier League. At the same time, Denzel Dumfries or understudy Jeremie Frimpong is perfect in the right-wing-back role.

Frenkie de Jong is guaranteed to start in the heart of the Netherlands midfield. Who partners him remains to be seen, but Tijjani Reijnders, who is enjoying a stellar debut campaign for Milan, has seemingly been given the nod. Depay should lead Oranje’s attack. He is joined by Simons and Cody Gakpo, or just the latter if Koeman goes with a 3-5-2.

Netherlands’ latest squad

Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper 21 Brighton & Hove Albion
Marco Bizot Goalkeeper 33 Brest
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper 30 Brentford
Lutsharel Geertruida Defender 23 Feyenoord
Matthijs de Ligt Defender 24 Bayern Munich
Virgil van Dijk Defender 32 Liverpool
Nathan Aké Defender 29 Manchester City
Daley Blind Defender 34 Girona
Jeremie Frimpong Defender 23 Bayer Leverkusen
Denzel Dumfries Defender 27 Internazionale
Jerdy Schouten Midfielder 27 PSV
Xavi Simons Midfielder 20 RB Leipzig
Georginio Wijnaldum Midfielder 33 Al-Ettifaq
Quinten Timber Midfielder 22 Feyenoord
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder 25 Milan
Marten de Roon Midfielder 32 Atalanta
Joey Veerman Midfielder 24 PSV
Mats Wieffer Midfielder 24 Feyenoord
Teun Koopmeiners Midfielder 26 Atalanta
Wout Weghorst Forward 31 1899 Hoffenheim
Memphis Depay Forward 30 Atlético Madrid
Cody Gakpo Forward 24 Liverpool
Donyell Malen Forward 25 Borussia Dortmund

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