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Netherlands odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 16:30, 16 June 2024

The Netherlands will seek to end a nearly four-decade wait for an international tournament win at Euro 2024 this summer.

The Oranje were disappointed at the last tournament, a pan-European affair, when they were bounced out soon after escaping the group phase. Frank de Boer was removed as head coach before Louis van Gaal returned and guided the Netherlands to a quarter-final exit at the most recent World Cup finals.

There’s a sense of déjà vu with Ronald Koeman following in Van Gaal’s footsteps. Though the Dutch boast a string of high-profile names that can meld into a formidable side, they are sixth favourites according to Opta’s probability rating, with a 6% chance of winning.

They opened their tournament with a 2-1 win over Poland and will be desperate to ensure they top the group. If not, Oranje could face an extremely tough route to the final.

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Latest Netherlands odds to win Euro 2024
Netherlands to win Euro 2024
Netherlands to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals
Netherlands to win Group D
Memphis Depay to win Golden Boot

Netherlands route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Poland 1-2 Netherlands (16 June, Volksparkstadion)
  • France (21 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)
  • Austria (25 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)

Netherlands potential knockout stage opponents

If the Netherlands win Group D, they’ll face the runner-up in Group F: Turkey, Portugal or Play-off winner C (Georgia/Greece). Then, in the quarter-final, either the winner of Group E or the best third-placed team from either Group A, B, C, or D, likely Belgium, will play Koeman’s side. If the Dutch reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face England if they win their group. And then perhaps Germany and Spain or a reunion with France in the final.

Netherlands key players for this year’s European Championship

Netherlands top Euros Golden Boot contender: Memphis Depay

  • Key stat: Only Robin van Persie (50) has scored more international goals for the Netherlands than Depay (44).

It’s not been the most productive campaign for Memphis Depay, who has floated in and out of Diego Simeone’s squad, whether through injury or tactical reasons. However, it’s fair to say he’s peaking at the right moment. He notably scored the all-important goal that forced extra-time in Atletico Madrid’s recent Champions League round of 16 clashes with Inter Milan, which saw the Spaniards progress through successfully winning the duel from 12 yards.

Depay might not be guaranteed a starting berth at his club, but it’s a different story with the Netherlands, as he’s among the first names on Koeman’s teamsheet. At one point, the Dutch heavily depended on the Moordrecht native, which has eased in recent internationals. He nevertheless remains Oranje’s most consistent attacking threat. The recent international outing against Scotland was his first since in a year.

By the start of Euro 2024, he hopes to be closer to Robin van Persie’s mark of 50 international goals, which is a national team record; Depay is currently six strikes from equalling that haul.

Netherlands primary playmaker: Joey Veerman

  • Key stat: No one currently eligible to represent Oranje created more club-level goals than Joey Veerman (16) in league play in 2023/24.

Joey Veerman could be on the move following Euro 2024, especially if he backs up what many observers are starting to believe. He’s been incredible for PSV Eindhoven in their relentless march to Dutch championship glory. The midfielder, once favourably compared to Andrea Pirlo by Rafael van der Vaart, won the Eredivisie’s ‘assist king’ race and is by some distance the most creative at club level among his international teammates. Putting all this aside, chances are he’ll be coming off the bench as he predominantly occupies the same piece of land as Frenkie de Jong, arguably Oranje’s most valuable player. Koeman may spring a surprise and field the pair, but that’s increasingly becoming unlikely, with Veerman touted to enter the field late and punish tired legs.

Netherlands card magnets & top tacklers: Tijjani Reijnders

  • Key stat: Only Marten de Roon (10) and Xavi Simons (9) picked up more yellow cards across Europe’s big five leagues in 2023/24 than Tijjani Reijnders (8).

“They love it in Italy, where you recover balls,” Marten de Roon said while explaining his nickname, ‘The Wavebreaker.’ Committing those fouls has cost him dearly in Serie A this season. Still, the Zwijndrecht-born midfielder, who remained integral to Atalanta and Oranje, has since lost his starting berth with an injury ruling him out of Koeman’s squad this summer. The rise of Tijjani Reijnders at fellow Italian club Milan has seen him slowly usurp De Roon in Koeman’s thinking, but in tournament football, cooler heads will need to prevail, and the former AZ man is known to love a challenge.

Netherlands rising star: Xavi Simons

Even though he’s played close to 70 league matches at the highest level, Xavi Simons remains a rising star who’s yet to imprint himself on the international stage.

The former Barcelona academy graduate, on loan at Bundesliga outfit RB Leipzig from Paris Saint-Germain, has made 13 appearances for Oranje without creating or scoring a single goal. Understandably, it’s eating him up, though national team boss Koeman is encouraging patience as that first strike isn’t too far away. His performances at club level since temporarily joining PSV in 2022 — 31 goals and 25 assists through 84 appearances in all competitions — have been encouraging, hence the confidence it will not be long before he’s brought that form while donning an orange jersey.

Netherlands set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Memphis Depay
  • Free kicks: Memphis Depay
  • Corners: Cody Gakpo

Netherlands tactical analysis and formation

Netherlands team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 7.25
  • Corners conceded: 2.5
  • Shots on target: 6.4
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.6
  • Offsides: 1.25

Perhaps the most significant dilemma facing Koeman heading into this summer’s tournament is the shape of his starting lineup. Since returning, he’s utilised both a back-four and three, with him leading towards the latter in recent outings.

“It was quite a big issue because when he was announced to be the manager again, he said he would go back to the 4-3-3, the traditional way, going back to pressing the opponent with wingers,” Ronald de Boer told BBC’s Scottish Football Podcast recently.

“But then, with the 4-0 defeat against France and some other bad results, they didn’t look strong. I think he realized the result was more important at the moment than the traditional 4-3-3, and it worked well.

“For me, you have to look to the opponent. If you feel that against this opponent, we can play 4-3-3, go for it. If you have 80% of the time on the ball, you don’t need three men at the back.

“But if you play France, accept that underdog role and be realistic. Don’t be naive. I think that is what Koeman now realises—when you’re up against stronger teams, you don’t always have the best team to win in football. You have to be smart. I think that is what Koeman does now.”

Going with three at the back, which allows either a false nine sandwiched between wide forwards or two up top, is an understandable approach, given how the Dutch’s greatest strength lies in defence. Nathan Ake and Virgil van Dijk have shown their capability of joining and building up attacks in the Premier League. At the same time, Denzel Dumfries or understudy Jeremie Frimpong is perfect in the right-wing-back role.

Frenkie de Jong is guaranteed to start in the heart of the Netherlands midfield. Who partners him remains to be seen, but Tijjani Reijnders, who is enjoying a stellar debut campaign for Milan, has seemingly been given the nod. Depay should lead Oranje’s attack. He is joined by Simons and Cody Gakpo, or just the latter if Koeman goes with a 3-5-2.

Netherlands final Euro 2024 squad

Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper 21 Brighton & Hove Albion
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper 26 Feyenoord
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper 30 Brentford
Micky van de Ven Defender 23 Tottenham Hotspur
Matthijs de Ligt Defender 24 Bayern Munich
Virgil van Dijk Defender 32 Liverpool
Nathan Aké Defender 29 Manchester City
Stefan de Vrij Defender 32 Internazionale
Jeremie Frimpong Defender 23 Bayer Leverkusen
Lutsharel Geertruida Defender 23 Feyenoord
Daley Blind Defender 34 Girona
Denzel Dumfries Defender 28 Internazionale
Georginio Wijnaldum Midfielder 33 Al-Ettifaq
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder 25 Milan
Joey Veerman Midfielder 25 PSV
Xavi Simons Midfielder 21 RB Leipzig
Teun Koopmeiners Midfielder 26 Atalanta
Frenkie de Jong Midfielder 27 Barcelona
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder 22 Liverpool
Jerdy Schouten Midfielder 27 PSV
Steven Bergwijn Forward 36 Ajax
Wout Weghorst Forward 31 TSG Hoffenheim
Memphis Depay Forward 30 Atlético Madrid
Cody Gakpo Forward 25 Liverpool
Donyell Malen Forward 25 Borussia Dortmund
Brian Brobbey Forward 22 Ajax

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