Outright Odds

Italy odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and full squad

By Squawka News

Italy odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and full squad

Published: 9:59, 14 April 2024 | Updated: 15:24, 22 April 2024

Italy head into this summer’s European Championships looking to defend their title and add a third crown to their collection.

The Azzurri went all the way at Euro 2020, beating England on penalties in the final at Wembley, winning this competition for the first time since 1968. However, since then it’s not all been smooth sailing, with Italy failing to make the World Cup for the second edition in a row and replacing Roberto Mancini with Luciano Spalletti, who won Serie A with Napoli in 2022/23. That said, the Italians did finish third at the Uefa Nations League for the second time in a row and finished second only to England in their qualifying group for this tournament.

As holders and simply given who they are, there will always be a certain level of expectation around Italy at major tournaments. So, can they go all the way in Germany this summer? After all, they’ll have fond memories of winning the World Cup here back in 2006, while they also reached the semi-finals of the European Championships on German soil back in 1988.

Latest Italy odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Italy to win Euro 2024 14/1 with Bet365 6.7%
Italy to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 10/3 with BetVictor 23.1%
Italy to win Group B 5/2 with BoyleSports 28.6%
Ciro Immobile to win Golden Boot 40/1 with Bet365
2.4%

Italy route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Albania (15 June 2024, 9pm, Signal Iduna Park)
  • Spain (20 June 2024, 9pm, Arena AufSchalke)
  • Croatia (24 June 2024, 9pm, Red Bull Arena)

Italy’s potential knockout stage opponents

The draw for Euro 2024 couldn’t have been much worse for Italy as they’ve been placed into Group B alongside Spain, Croatia and Albania. Even the latter will prove a tough test. Should Spaletti’s men finish top — which as holders they’re obviously well capable of — they will face one of the best third-place teams in the round of 16. Runner-up is also a very realistic and respectable return in this group and if that’s the face, it’ll be the runner-up from Group A in the first knockout round, which could be Germany but more likely Switzerland or Hungary.

And if Italy finish as one of the tournament’s best third-place teams — that opening match against Albania really is crucial — it could open up any number of possibilities, but it will guarantee them a fixture against a Group winner, probably Portugal or Belgium.

Italy key players for this year’s European Championship

Italy top Euros Golden Boot contender: Ciro Immobile

  • Key stat: Ciro Immobile is Italy’s highest-scoring active player with 17 goals in 57 caps.

In reality, picking a Golden Boot contender from Italy is almost impossible, with Spalletti already cycling through four different options in the No.9 position since taking the job: Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca and Ciro Immobile. The latter is the current bookies’ favourite among Italian players given he’s the highest-scoring active player.

Immobile was the starter for Italy’s triumphant Euro 2020 campaign and scored two goals to help the Azzurri lift the title, but he’s suffered at club level this season with just 10 goals in 38 appearances across all competitions and six in 27 in Serie A.

Spalletti may see Immobile’s experience as an attractive option, but this is a tough one to call.

Italy primary playmaker: Nicolo Barella

  • Key stat: No Italian player registered more assists than Nicolo Barella (3) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

He doesn’t always get the full credit he deserves but Nicolo Barella is one of the best central midfielders on the planet right now and has proved it in helping Inter storm to the Serie A title. Now, his creative spark has dimmed somewhat at club level as he takes on other responsibilities, providing four assists across all competitions this season, compared to returns of nine, 12 and 10 in his previous three campaigns. However, at international level, he continues to prove effective in the final third and no Italian player provided more assists during qualifying than Barella (3).

Besides, only Federico Dimarco (53) and Hakan Calhanoglu (48) have created more chances for Inter this season than Barella (36), so perhaps his assist tally should be a little higher anyway.

Italy card magnets & top tacklers: Giovanni Di Lorenzo

  • Key stat: Di Lorenzo was booked (3) more than any other Italian player during qualifying.

Italy were one of the cleanest sides in Euro 2024 qualifying, with just 14 yellow cards to their name and no reds. For comparison, the most-booked nation was Luxembourg with 35 yellows, while Wales received the most red cards (3). Giovanni Di Lorenzo was responsible for over 21% of those yellow cards with a team-high three, while he committed six fouls to leave him second only to Nicolo Zaniolo (8) among his teammates.

This all tracks quite well with Di Lorenzo’s form at club level for Napoli, where he has received a team-high six yellow cards in Serie A this season. It’s not that the full-back is an inherently dirty player, it’s just that he has that gritty determination to occasionally bend the rules in order to stop his opposing winger.

That may well end up being an important trait at the Euros this summer when Italy come up against the likes of Spain and Croatia before evening thinking about a knockout run.

Italy rising star: Destiny Udogie

Italy have a few exciting players coming through right now, but Destiny Udogie feels like the perfect blend of raw talent and already having a level of experience. The 21-year-old left-back has quickly become a mainstay for Tottenham Hotspur, playing 29 times across all competitions for the Lilywhites having spent last season back on loan at Udinese following his transfer to the Londoners.

Udogie has two goals and three assists to his name in 28 Premier League appearances so far, while he ranks third among Spurs players for tackles (68) and clearances (77), and first for recoveries (165).

Although he only has three senior caps to his name, Udogie is already feeling like a really starting contender at left-back for Italy and some extended minutes at the Euros this summer could help propel his career even further.

Italy set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Jorginho
  • Free kicks: Federico Dimarco
  • Corners: Nicolo Barella

Italy tactical analysis and formation

Italy team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 6.8
  • Shots on target: 4.5
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.75
  • Offsides: 1.8

Spalletti has experimented with three-at-the-back systems in recent friendlies against Ecuador and Venezuela, but it’s difficult to see him making that a permanent switch so close to the tournament. With that in mind, the 4-3-3 that got them here feels like the most balanced, allowing them to get more central midfielders onto the pitch, which is the area where Italy have the most talent.

The Azzurri will look to dominate possession having averaged a 62.6% share during qualifying. But against Spain and Croatia, they’re more than capable of soaking up pressure and using those mobile midfielders like Barella and Davide Frattesi to launch counter attacks.

Italy’s latest squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper 25 PSG
Guglielmo Vicario Goalkeeper 27 Tottenham Hotspur
Alex Meret Goalkeeper 27 Napoli
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper 23 Atalanta
Giovanni Di Lorenzo Defender 30 Napoli
Federico Dimarco Defender 26 Inter
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender 24 Torino
Destiny Udogie Defender 21 Tottenham Hotspur
Matteo Darmian Defender 34 Inter
Giorgio Scalvini Defender 20 Atalanta
Gianluca Mancini Defender 27 Roma
Alessandro Bastoni Defender 24 Inter
Andrea Cambiaso Defender 24 Juventus
Raoul Bellanova Defender 23 Torino
Manuel Locatelli Midfielder 26 Juventus
Giacomo Bonaventura Midfielder 34 Fiorentina
Jorginho Midfielder 32 Arsenal
Lorenzo Pellegrini Midfielder 27 Roma
Nicolo Barella Midfielder 27 Inter
Davide Frattesi Midfielder 24 Inter
Michael Folorunsho Midfielder 26 Hellas Verona
Mateo Retegui Forward 24 Genoa
Giacomo Raspadori Forward 24 Napoli
Federico Chiesa Forward 26 Juventus
Riccardo Orsolini Forward 27 Bologna
Mattia Zaccagni Forward 28 Lazio
Nicolo Zaniolo Forward 24 Aston Villa
Lorenzo Lucca Forward 23 Udinese

Read more on Euro 2024: