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Italy Euro 2024 outright odds: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Squawka News

Italy odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and full squad

Published: 16:15, 16 June 2024

Italy head into this summer’s European Championships looking to defend their title and add a third crown to their collection.

Luciano Spalletti’s men had to come from behind in their opening fixture after a blistering start from Albania saw them take a 1-0 lead at Westfalenstadion, before goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella turned the game on it’s head.

The Azzurri went all the way at Euro 2020, beating England on penalties in the final at Wembley, winning this competition for the first time since 1968. However, since then it’s not all been smooth sailing, with Italy failing to make the World Cup for the second edition in a row and replacing Roberto Mancini with Luciano Spalletti, who won Serie A with Napoli in 2022/23. That said, the Italians did finish third at the Uefa Nations League for the second time in a row and finished second only to England in their qualifying group for this tournament.

As holders and simply given who they are, there will always be a certain level of expectation around Italy at major tournaments. So, can they go all the way in Germany this summer? After all, they’ll have fond memories of winning the World Cup here back in 2006, while they also reached the semi-finals of the European Championships on German soil back in 1988.

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Latest Italy odds to win Euro 2024
Italy to win Euro 2024
Italy to win Group B
Gianluca Scamacca to win Golden Boot

Italy route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Albania 1-2 Italy (15 June 2024, 9pm, Signal Iduna Park)
  • Spain (20 June 2024, 9pm, Arena AufSchalke)
  • Croatia (24 June 2024, 9pm, Red Bull Arena)

Italy’s potential knockout stage opponents

The draw for Euro 2024 couldn’t have been much worse for Italy as they’ve been placed into Group B alongside Spain, Croatia and Albania, although they did get off to a winning start against the final one of those teams in their opening match. Should Spaletti’s men finish top — which as holders they’re obviously well capable of — they will face one of the best third-place teams in the round of 16. Runner-up is also a very realistic and respectable return in this group and if that’s the face, it’ll be the runner-up from Group A in the first knockout round, which could be Germany but more likely Switzerland or Hungary.

It seems unlikely that Italy will finish in third place in the group after their opening game win over Albania but if they do – it could open up any number of possibilities, but it will guarantee them a fixture against a Group winner, probably Portugal or Belgium.

Italy key players for this year’s European Championship

Italy top Euros Golden Boot contender: Gianluca Scamacca

  • Key stat: Gianluca Scamacca averaged a goal every 117 minutes for Atalanta in 2023/24.

In reality, picking a Golden Boot contender from Italy is almost impossible, with Spalletti already cycling through four different options in the No.9 position since taking the job: Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca and Ciro Immobile. The latter has been left out of the squad for Germany, so we are down to three.

Scamacca has had an impressive season with Europa League winners Atalanta, scoring 18 goals and providing a further seven assists in 39 appearances (26 starts) across Serie A and the Europa League in 2023/24. He is also in red-hot form going into the tournament, with no player being directly involved in more goals since the last international break at the end of March than the Italian in Europe’s top five leagues (10 goals and 4 assists). 

Italy primary playmaker: Nicolo Barella

  • Key stat: No Italian player registered more assists than Nicolo Barella (3) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

He doesn’t always get the full credit he deserves but Nicolo Barella is one of the best central midfielders on the planet right now and has proved it in helping Inter storm to the Serie A title. Now, his creative spark has dimmed somewhat at club level as he takes on other responsibilities, providing four assists across all competitions this season, compared to returns of nine, 12 and 10 in his previous three campaigns. However, at international level, he continues to prove effective in the final third and no Italian player provided more assists during qualifying than Barella (3).

Besides, only Federico Dimarco (53) and Hakan Calhanoglu (48) have created more chances for Inter this season than Barella (36), so perhaps his assist tally should be a little higher anyway.

Italy card magnets & top tacklers: Giovanni Di Lorenzo

  • Key stat: Di Lorenzo was booked (3) more than any other Italian player during qualifying.

Italy were one of the cleanest sides in Euro 2024 qualifying, with just 14 yellow cards to their name and no reds. For comparison, the most-booked nation was Luxembourg with 35 yellows, while Wales received the most red cards (3). Giovanni Di Lorenzo was responsible for over 21% of those yellow cards with a team-high three, while he committed six fouls to leave him second only to Nicolo Zaniolo (8) among his teammates.

This all tracks quite well with Di Lorenzo’s form at club level for Napoli, where he has received a team-high six yellow cards in Serie A this season. It’s not that the full-back is an inherently dirty player, it’s just that he has that gritty determination to occasionally bend the rules in order to stop his opposing winger.

That may well end up being an important trait at the Euros this summer when Italy come up against the likes of Spain and Croatia before evening thinking about a knockout run.

Italy rising star: Giorgio Scalvini

Italy have a few exciting players coming through right now, but Giorgio Scalvini feels like the latest in a long line of incredible centre-backs to play for the Azzurri. He has the perfect blend of raw talent, strength and ability to play out from the back, already having a level of experience. The 20-year-old has quickly become a mainstay for Atalanta, playing 43 times across all competitions for Atalanta, helping to them to Europa League glory, ending Bayer Leverkusen’s world-record unbeaten run.

Scalvini became the youngest-ever player to score for Atalanta in a European competition (19 years and 298 days), making 7.7 ball recoveries, 2.6 tackles and 1.9 interceptions interceptions per 90 in the tournament.

Although he only has eight senior caps to his name, Scalvini is already feeling like a really starting contender at centre-back for Italy and some extended minutes at the Euros this summer could help propel his career even further.

Italy set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Jorginho
  • Free kicks: Federico Dimarco
  • Corners: Nicolo Barella

Italy tactical analysis and formation

Italy team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 6.8
  • Shots on target: 4.5
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.75
  • Offsides: 1.8

Spalletti has experimented with three-at-the-back systems in recent friendlies against Ecuador and Venezuela, but it’s difficult to see him making that a permanent switch so close to the tournament. With that in mind, the 4-3-3 that got them here feels like the most balanced, allowing them to get more central midfielders onto the pitch, which is the area where Italy have the most talent.

The Azzurri will look to dominate possession having averaged a 62.6% share during qualifying. But against Spain and Croatia, they’re more than capable of soaking up pressure and using those mobile midfielders like Barella and Davide Frattesi to launch counter attacks.

Italy’s final squad

Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper 25 PSG
Guglielmo Vicario Goalkeeper 27 Tottenham Hotspur
Alex Meret Goalkeeper 27 Napoli
Giovanni Di Lorenzo Defender 30 Napoli
Federico Dimarco Defender 26 Inter
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender 24 Torino
Riccardo Calafiori Defender 22 Bologna
Matteo Darmian Defender 34 Inter
Gianluca Mancini Defender 27 Roma
Alessandro Bastoni Defender 24 Inter
Andrea Cambiaso Defender 24 Juventus
Raoul Bellanova Defender 23 Torino
Nicolo Barella Midfielder 27 Inter
Jorginho Midfielder 32 Arsenal
Bryan Cristante Midfielder 29 Roma
Lorenzo Pellegrini Midfielder 27 Roma
Davide Frattesi Midfielder 24 Inter
Michael Folorunsho Midfielder 26 Hellas Verona
Federico Chiesa Forward 26 Juventus
Stephan El Shaarawy Forward 31 Roma
Giacomo Raspadori Forward 24 Napoli
Gianluca Scamacca Forward 25 Atalanta
Mateo Retegui Forward 25 Genoa
Mattia Zaccagni Forward 28 Lazio

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