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Hungary odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Harry Edwards

Hungary odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 14:26, 25 March 2024

After finishing third in 1964 and fourth in 1972, Hungary will be hoping for a tournament to remember as they return to the European Championships.

Following on from their fourth-placed finish in 1972, Hungary didn’t feature in the European Championships for 44 years, missing 10 tournaments before returning in 2016. But, after qualifying in 2016 and 2020, Hungary have managed just one win from their seven games. They did reach the last 16 in Euro 2016, but last time out it was a group stage exit in what was a tough foursome. They’ve got another tough group this time, though it isn’t as bad, and a knockout spot isn’t out of the question. It would be a huge surprise, however, if Hungary go further than the last 16, and they’re given a 1.2% chance of actually winning Euro 2024.

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Latest Hungary odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Hungary to win Euro 2024 80/1 with Sky Bet 1.2%
Hungary to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 8/1 with BetVictor 11.1%
Hungary to win Group A 13/2 with BetMGM 13.3%
Dominik Szoboszlai to win Golden Boot 200/1 with Bet365 0.5%

Hungary route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Switzerland (15 June 2024, 2pm, RheinEnergieStadion)
  • Germany (19 June 2024, 5pm, MHPArena)
  • Scotland (23 June 2024, 8pm, MHPArena)

Hungary’s potential knockout stage opponents

Hungary’s best bet of qualifying from Group A is as runners-up, which would pit them against the runners-up of Group B — likely to be Italy. If Hungary were to somehow win that, they’d likely face the Group C winners in the quarter-final, expected to be England. Then, France, Netherlands or Belgium would all be possibilities in the semi-final, with Portugal, Spain or Germany potential final opponents.

Hungary key players for this year’s European Championship

Hungary top Euros Golden Boot contender: Barnabas Varga

  • Key stat: Barnabas Varga has scored 26 goals in 30 games for Ferencvaros this season.

Although Dominic Szoboszlai is the only Hungary player in the market for the Euro 2024 Golden Boot, they’ll be hoping to rely on someone like Barnabas Varga to get goals. The primary striker for Hungary, Varga has scored four goals since making his debut just one year ago, and he’s been thriving domestically.

A late bloomer, Varga turns 30 this year and only made his senior Hungary debut as a 28-year-old. Varga had to wait until his third game to get off the mark for Hungary, but it was his first start, netting the opener against Lithuania. In fact, Varga has scored in each of his past four competitive games for Hungary, only failing in that time in friendlies against Czech Republic and Turkey.

For Ferencvaros, Varga has scored 26 goals across all competitions in just 30 games, including 17 in 17 in the league. Hungary will be wishing he had emerged sooner.

Hungary primary playmaker: Dominik Szoboszlai

  • Key stat: Dominik Szoboszlai recorded five assists in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Dominik Szoboszlai will also be Hungary’s main creative outlet. Despite still being only 23, Szoboszlai is Hungary captain and their talisman, the player around whom their team will be built. And he’s proven to be a more-than capable playmaker for them so far.

During qualifying for Euro 2024 alone, Szoboszlai provided five assists, with only Bruno Fernandes and Kylian Mbappe setting up more across the campaign as a whole. Szoboszlai has been enjoying his time in the Premier League with Liverpool too, creating 38 chances with two assists so far. In a team that focusses more on their wingers, this is a good showing, particularly in Szoboszlai’s first season.

This will be Szoboszlai’s first major tournament with Hungary having missed their Euro 2020 group stage exit due to injury, so he’ll be wanting to make up for lost time.

Hungary card magnets & top tacklers: Milos Kerkez

  • Key stat: Milos Kerkez received three cards in 520 minutes during Euro 2024 qualifying.

Among Hungarians currently playing in Europe’s top seven leagues, Milos Kerkez has made more tackles than the lot (37). The 20-year-old has been a pretty regular feature for Bournemouth this season since joining from AZ Alkmaar, featuring in 21 of the Cherries’ 28 Premier League games so far.

Definitely more of a defensive full-back than an attacking one, Kerkez is the defender to try and stop opposition advances, particularly in his own half. The 20-year-old has won possession in the defensive third 38 times in the Premier League this season, and 23 times in the middle third. He has also been shown three yellow cards in the Premier League. Kerkez matched that tally of cards in just 520 minutes during Euro 2024 qualifying, but one of those was a red, with the defender sent off for two yellows in the 2-2 draw with Bulgaria.

Hungary rising star: Zalan Vancsa

A lot of Hungary’s better stars are young players, and the next one to try to break into the team will be Zalan Vancsa. Just 19, Vancsa has only played once for Hungary so far, making his debut against Italy in June 2022 at the age of 17. He’s spent most of the time since with the U21s squad, but Vancsa was called up to the most recent senior side, with Marco Rossi wanting a second look.

It was a deserved call up too. Vancsa is currently plying his trade in Belgium’s second tier with SK Lommel and has been directly involved in 15 goals in 26 league games. The left-winger has scored 10 while providing a further five assists with Lommel pushing for automatic promotion to the top flight.

Hungary set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Dominic Szoboszlai
  • Free kicks: Dominic Szoboszlai
  • Corners: Dominic Szoboszlai

Hungary tactical analysis and formation

Hungary team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 5.1
  • Shots on target: 5.5
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.5
  • Offsides: 1.8

Hungary are one of the nations where their starting XI feels pretty straightforward to call. Providing there aren’t any injuries, Marco Rossi definitely has his core group of players whom he relies upon and would start every game if he could.

Operating with a back three, Attila Szalai, Adam Lang and Willi Orban come with international experience, sharing just over 150 caps between them. They have been Rossi’s go-to back three and will be providing everyone is fit, protecting the goal kept by Peter Gulacsi.

Playing with wing-backs allows Hungary to be both attacking and defensive, which works well with Milos Kerkez and Loic Nego. Kerkez is definitely more of a defensive wing-back, while Nego actually plays in midfield or even higher up the pitch for club side Le Havre. In central midfield, Adam Nagy is Mr. Reliable, with Andras Schafer often the man tasked to play alongside him.

Then we come to the exciting part of this team, the attacking three. A narrow three, Szoboszlai is at the heart of everything in a role that allows him to both drop deeper in midfield and be the most-advanced man, which explains why he is Hungary’s primary playmaker and Golden Boot favourite. Alongside him, Roland Sallai plays in a slightly deeper role than he usually does at club level but, again, there is more of a fluid system which allows him to advance.

Spearheading the Hungary attack since his debut has been Varga, and he’s a goal threat. A late bloomer, Varga looks to be the striker Hungary have been missing for a while, and there is hope that he, alongside Szoboszlai and Sallai, can boost the nation up the rankings and far at Euro 2024.

Hungary’s latest squad

Peter Gulacsi Goalkeeper 33 RB Leipzig
Denes Dibusz Goalkeeper 33 Ferencvaros
Balazs Toth Goalkeeper 26 Fehervar
Adam Lang Defender 31 Omonia
Attila Mocsi Defender 23 Caykur Rizespor
Attila Szalai Defender 26 Freiburg
Botond Balogh Defender 21 Parma
Marton Dardai Defender 22 Hertha Berlin
Gabor Szalai Defender 23 Lausanne-Sport
Willi Orban Defender 31 RB Leipzig
Loic Nego Midfielder 33 Le Havre
Adam Nagy Midfielder 28 Spezia
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder 23 Liverpool
Milos Kerkez Midfielder 20 Bournemouth
Andras Schafer Midfielder 24 Union Berlin
Bendeguz Bolla Midfielder 24 Servette
Laszlo Kleinheisler Midfielder 29 Hajduk Split
Callum Styles Midfielder 23 Sunderland
Zsolt Nagy Midfielder 30 Puskas Akademia
Martin Aam Forward 29 Ulsan HD
Daniel Gazdag Forward 28 Philadelphia Union
Barnabas Varga Forward 29 Ferencvaros
Roland Sallai Forward 26 Freiburg
Krisztofer Horvath Forward 22 Kecskemet
Zalan Vancsa Forward 19 Lommel

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