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Germany odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, most like XI, stats and final squad

By Harry Edwards

Germany odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 12:40, 15 June 2024

Germany will be hoping to make home comforts count when they host Euro 2024 this month.

Die Mannschaft are three-time winners of the European Championships but haven’t lifted the trophy since 1996. Three years ago, Germany underwhelmed at the Euros, knocked out in the round of 16 with a 2-0 defeat to eventual runners-up England.

As hosts, Germany are the third favourites behind England and France according to Opta’s probability rating, with a 15.9% chance of winning.

They opened their tournament with a 5-1 win over Scotland and will be desperate to ensure they top the group. If not, because of how stacked with top sides Group B is, Germany could face an extremely tough route to the final.

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Latest Germany odds to win Euro 2024
Squawka
Team
Germany to win Euro 2024
Germany to reach Euro 2024 semi-final
Germany to win Group A
Niclas Fullkrug to win the golden boot

Germany route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Scotland (14 June 2024, 8pm, Allianz Arena)
  • Hungary (19 June 2024, 5pm, MHPArena)
  • Switzerland (23 June 2024, 8pm, Deutsche Bank Park)

Germany’s potential knockout stage opponents

Should Germany win Group A, they’ll face the runners-up of Group C, most likely to be Denmark. If they get through that, the likely opponents are the Group B winners, which many will expect to be Spain. Then it’s a potential semi-final against the likes of Portugal, Netherlands or Slovakia. The final could pit Germany against the likes of France or England.

Germany key players for this year’s European Championship

Germany top Euros Golden Boot contender: Kai Havertz

Other European nations seem to have more recognised goalscoring forwards but Havertz’s strong latter half of the Premier League campaign with Arsenal is one reason Germany are more optimistic than they might have been last autumn. He has four goals in his last seven international appearances and is on penalty duty, scoring from the spot against Scotland (where Germany spread their goals across five different scorers).

Elsewhere, do not sleep on Niclas Fullkrug. He may be mostly a substitute across this tournament but in 17 games for Germany (including vs Scotland), Fullkrug has 12 goals, failing to score in only five matches. He netted on his debut before scoring two goals in three games at the World Cup — one of the few shining lights as Germany were knocked out at the group stage. Then, as Germany played friendlies in 2023, Fullkrug went on two separate three-game scoring streaks — separated by only two games in which he failed to score (playing fewer than 25 minutes in each match).

Germany primary playmaker: Florian Wirtz

It’s hard to believe, but Florian Wirtz is still only 21 years old. It feels as though the midfielder has been around for ages, and that’s because he has, making his Germany debut at the age of 18, one year on from his Bundesliga debut. He was one of the brightest young European stars towards the end of 2021 but his progress was brought to a halt by an ACL injury suffered in March 2022.

That injury ruled Wirtz out until the start of 2023 but he returned with a bang and is now back on track, looking like he barely missed a step. Wirtz created 74 chances in the Bundesliga this season, with only seven players managing more. He was also one of just two players to reach 10+ goals and 10+ assists in the Bundesliga this season.

Much excitement surrounds Wirtz’s potential, coupled with the equally exciting youngster Jamal Musiala. Both netted vs Scotland and in fact are now the nation’s youngest every goalscorers in Euros history. Some observers have dubbed them the “new Podolski and Schweinsteiger,” but the Leverkusen playmaker has politely rejected this comparison.

“They are idols from the past, and we are happy to be compared to them. But we don’t want to be the new Podolski and Schweinsteiger. We are different types of players and try to showcase our own qualities on the field. However, it’s an honour to be compared to them,” he said.

Germany card magnets & top tacklers: Maximilian Mittelstadt

Maximilian Mittelstadt will hope to make his mark on the Germany team this year leading up to the Euros. The Stuttgart left-back earned his first call-up to the senior squad after starring in the league, with Die Roten currently sitting pretty in third in the Bundesliga. Mittelstadt is more of a defensive full-back but has still recorded four assists from 30 chances created in the Bundesliga this season.

He sat second-highest in the Bundesliga for tackles with 91 and ninth for interceptions on 46. But Mittelstadt also committed 28 fouls and received five yellow cards.

Germany rising star: Maximilian Beier

Germany have some young players already establishing themselves in Wirtz and Jamal Musiala. But the next big thing right now appears to be Maximilian Beier. Though 21, Beier is enjoying a real breakthrough season with Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga after two years on loan with Hannover in the second tier.

The striker scored 16 goals in 33 games in the Bundesliga in 2023/24, including two against Borussia Dortmund and one vs Bayer Leverkusen. He’ll be a useful player to have in the squad.

Germany set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Kai Havertz
  • Free kicks: Leroy Sane
  • Corners: Ilkay Gundogan

Germany tactical analysis and formation

Julian Nagelsmann has overseen eight games as Germany manager since replacing Hansi Flick and has used three different formations. The 4-2-3-1 has been used six times, with a 4-4-2 and then a 3-4-2-1, with varying success. It’s clear Nagelsmann is trying to work out what system fits a squad that has struggled for form over the past 18 months or so.

The 4-2-3-1 system is what Nagelsmann used most of the time at Bayern Munich. In this system, Nagelsmann looks settled on Toni Kroos and Robert Andrich as the double pivot, doing so against Netherlands, France and Scotland, with Ilkay Gundogan pushing forward in the No.10. But there are the likes of Aleksandar Pavlovic and Pascal Groß to provide other options.

In this formation, Kimmich drops to right-back, with Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah at centre-back and Maximilian Mittelstadt on the left. There was a question of who plays in goal, though, but Nagelsmann has confirmed that Manuel Neuer is his No.1 goalkeeper.

Further up the pitch, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala flank Gundogan, with Kai Havertz recently favoured as the starting centre forward.

Germany’s final squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper 34 Hoffenheim
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper 38 Bayern Munich
Marc-Andre ter Stegen Goalkeeper 32 Barcelona
Waldemar Anton Defender 27 Stuttgart
Benjamin Henrichs Defender 27 RB Leipzig
Joshua Kimmich Defender 29 Bayern Munich
Robin Koch Defender 27 Eintracht Frankfurt
Maximilian Mittelstadt Defender 27 Stuttgart
David Raum Defender 26 RB Leipzig
Antonio Rudiger Defender 31 Real Madrid
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender 24 Borussia Dortmund
Jonathan Tah Defender 28 Bayer Leverkusen
Robert Andrich Midfielder 29 Bayer Leverkusen
Chris Fuhrich Midfielder 26 Stuttgart
Pascal Groß Midfielder 32 Brighton & Hove Albion
Ilkay Gundogan Midfielder 33 Barcelona
Toni Kroos Midfielder 34 Real Madrid
Jamal Musiala Midfielder 21 Bayern Munich
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder 20 Bayern Munich
Leroy Sane Midfielder 28 Bayern Munich
Florian Wirtz Midfielder 21 Bayer Leverkusen
Maximilian Beier Forward 21 Hoffenheim
Niclas Fullkrug Forward 31 Borussia Dortmund
Kai Havertz Forward 25 Arsenal
Thomas Muller Forward 34 Bayern Munich
Deniz Undav Forward 27 Stuttgart