Outright Odds

France odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By James Amey

Published: 16:49, 22 March 2024 | Updated: 12:53, 28 March 2024

France’s quest for a third European Championship trophy heads to Euro 2024 this summer.

After a disappointing Euro 2020 campaign that saw Les Bleus crash out on penalties to Switzerland in the last 16 and World Cup heartbreak at the hands of Argentina in the final in Qatar in 2022, Didier Deschamps will be hoping his French side can pick themselves up and go all the way in Germany.

As usual, they are among the favourites to win Euro 2024, just behind England in the outright market. With the firepower of Kylian Mbappé, the versatility of Antoine Griezmann and a host of up and coming talents they are expected to go far in the competition and you wouldn’t go against them equalling Italy and Germany’s record as the most successful countries in the competition’s history with three European Championship trophies to their name.

Latest France odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
France to win Euro 2024 4/1 with Unibet 20%
France to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 8/13 with BetVictor 61.9%
France to win Group D 4/7 with Bet365 63.6%
Kylian Mbappe to win Golden Boot 9/2 with Bet365 18.2%

France’s route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Austria (17 June 2024, 8pm, Merkur Spiel-Arena)
  • Netherlands (21 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)
  • Poland (25 June 2024, 5pm, Signal Iduna Park)

France’s potential knockout stage opponents

If France win Group D, they’ll face the runner-up from Group F in the last 16, with Turkey, Portugal or Czech Republic as their likely opponents. Then it’s either the winner of Group E or a third place side from A/B/C/D, likely to be Belgium, in the quarter-final. If France reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face England if they win their group. And then the likes of Germany and Spain in the final.

France’s key players for this year’s European Championship

France top Euros Golden Boot contender: Kylian Mbappé

  • Key stat: Kylian Mbappé was the first player in Europe’s top five leagues to be directly involved in 40+ goals across all competitions in 2023/24 and it only took him 34 games.

After breaking the record for the most goals scored in men’s World Cup finals with a hat-trick against Argentina in Qatar, Kylian Mbappé is no stranger to performing on the biggest stages in international football and will be hoping to add a European Championship Golden Boot to his World Cup one. At that tournament, he had more touches in the opposition box, created more chances and scored more goals than any other player, while only Lionel Messi could match his goal involvements (10), all at the age of 23.

At the March international break, Mbappé has been directly involved in more than 450 goals for club and country, notching an incredible 323 goals and 130 assists in just 432 appearances, with only Viktor Gyökeres (50) and Harry Kane (46) being directly involved in more goals across all competitions in Europe’s top seven leagues in 2023/24 than the PSG forward (46).

He is also on course for a record breaking sixth consecutive Ligue 1 Golden Boot, having found the back of the net 24 times in 24 games and averaging 2.6 shots on target per 90.

In qualifying for Euro 2024, Mbappé scored nine goals from 16 attempts on target in eight games, with only Romelu Lukaku (14) and Cristiano Ronaldo (10) finding the back of the net more times than the Frenchman.

France primary playmaker: Antoine Griezmann 

  • Key stat: Antoine Griezmann created more chances than any other player at the 2022 World Cup (22), while no player provided more assists (3).

France have an array of attacking talents, but the man at the centre of it all for Les Bleus is Atletico Madrid man Antoine Griezmann. Despite playing up front for his club, where he has scored the joint-most goals in the Champions League so far this season, the 33-year-old has slotted perfectly into the number 10 role for his country and Didier Deschamps decision to play him there has paid off big time.

This was evident at the World Cup in Qatar, where he topped the stats for most passes into the box (51), most chances created (22) as well as joining Lionel Messi, Harry Kane, Ivan Perisic and Bruno Fernandes at the top of the assist charts with three. This coupled with his incredible defensive work and is ability to (nearly) always be available, setting a world record for the most consecutive international appearances (84) makes him impossible to replace in this France side.

France card magnets & top tacklers: Eduardo Camavinga 

  • Key stat: No Real Madrid player has committed more fouls or picked up more yellow cards in LaLiga this season than Eduardo Camavinga.

Eduardo Camavinga’s versatility makes him a crucial member of the France squad. His ability to play all the across the midfield whilst also at left-back if needed (a position he filled to an incredible high standard for Los Blancos last season), means that Didier Deschamps can change his tactics if needed during play, especially if France are behind.

The Real Madrid midfielder has made 57 tackles in LaLiga this season, which places him in the top 10 — though he is some way off Óscar Valentín (83) in top spot. But he does lead the way for his club for fouls, conceding 38 so far this campaign — 12 more than any of his teammates, whilst also receiving the most yellow cards for Madrid in the league alongside Antonio Rudiger (7).

France rising star: Warren Zaïre-Emery

At just 18 years old, Warren Zaïre-Emery has made the central midfield spot his own for PSG this season and it won’t be long before the same happens for the national team. He is the youngest goalscorer PSG’s history in Ligue 1 at just 16 years and 330 days old and is the teenager with the most goal involvements in the Champions League so far this term, while only Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka are the only players with more assists.

It has also been a fast rise into international football having only receiving his first call-up to the U21 squad in August last year, where he captained the side on his debut, before being called up to the senior squad in November and scoring his first goal in the 14-0 rout of Gibraltar.

France set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Kylian Mbappé
  • Free kicks: Antoine Griezmann
  • Corners: Antoine Griezmann

France tactical analysis and formation

France team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 5.6
  • Fouls conceded: 9.9
  • Cards: 1.5
  • Shots on target: 7.9
  • Offsides: 1.9

Didier Deschamps seems to have found his ideal formation as France manager, favouring a 4-2-3-1 set up. However, he has at times experimented in a 4-4-2 shape, but this has mainly been used when Kylian Mbappé has been unavailable.

In the 4-2-3-1, Tchouaméni is the player to link defence to midfield and attack, playing an important role in France’s progression from defence with Real Madrid partner Eduardo Camavinga slotting in nicely beside him in a more of a box-to-box role, with Adrien Rabiot also able to play that position well.

Benjamin Pavard and Jules Koundé are expected to battle it out for the right-back spot, making a back three alongside the two centre-backs in possession, which allows Theo Hernandez to do what he does best and fly down the left-hand side allowing Kylian Mbappé the freedom to cut inside, causing the opposition all sorts of headaches.

Up front, Olivier Giroud will be hoping to extend his lead as his country’s all-time leading goalscorer, with his ability to hold up the ball and bring others into play crucial in the way Deschamps sets up, with the versatile Antoine Griezmann just behind floating in between the lines. The Atleti man has excelled in his new role for the national side, showing his incredible close control and an eye for the pass, with most of France’s build-up going through him.

Ousmane Dembélé completes the attacking part of France’s line-up, making the right-wing position his own with some impressive performances at the World Cup and is expected to keep his place in the side in Germany.

France’s latest squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper 28 AC Milan
Brice Samba Goalkeeper 29 Lens
Alphonse Areola Goalkeeper 31 West Ham
Jules Kounde Defender 25 Barcelona
Benjamin Pavard Defender 27 Inter
Ibrahima Konate Defender 24 Liverpool
William Saliba Defender 22 Arsenal
Dayot Upamecano Defender 25 Bayern
Theo Hernandez Defender 26 Milan
Lucas Hernandez Defender 28 PSG
Jonathan Clauss Defender 31 Marseille
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder 21 Real Madrid
Aurelian Tchoameni Midfielder 24 Real Madrid
Warren Zaire-Emery Midfielder 18 PSG
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder 28 Juventus
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder 25 Monaco
Matteo Guedouzi Midfielder 24 Lazio
Olivier Giroud Forward 37 Milan
Marcus Thuram Forward 26 Inter
Randal Kolo Muani Forward 25 PSG
Moussa Diaby Forward 24 Aston Villa
Kylian Mbappe Forward 25 PSG
Ousmane Dembele Forward 26 PSG
Antoine Griezmann Forward 33 Atletico Madrid

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