Outright Odds

England odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Harry Edwards

Published: 10:34, 21 March 2024 | Updated: 13:04, 28 March 2024

England’s latest quest to end their long wait for a trophy continues at Euro 2024 this season.

The Three Lions were losing finalists three years ago, beaten by Italy at Wembley. It was the first final for the Three Lions since the 1966 World Cup, and fans had been dreaming of the 65 years of hurt coming to an end. They were then knocked out of the World Cup quarter-finals, when the draw was on their side, beaten by France.

As usual, England are among the favourites to win Euro 2024, given a 23.1% chance of going all the way. But it feels like England will England when it matters, so more heartbreak could be on the way with a semi-final exit.

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Latest England odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
England to win Euro 2024 10/3 with Bet365 23.1%
England to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 8/13 with BetVictor 61.9%
England to win Group C 4/9 with BoyleSports 69.2%
Harry Kane to win Golden Boot 5/1 with Bet365 16.7%

England route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Serbia (16 June 2024, 8pm, Veltins-Arena)
  • Denmark (20 June 2024, 5pm, Deutsche Bank Park)
  • Slovenia (25 June 2024, 8pm, RheinEnergieStadion)

England’s potential knockout stage opponents

If England win Group C, they’ll face the best third-placed team from either Group D, E or F. Already it’s a messy start, but we could see England face the likes of Czech Republic, Romania or Austria. Then it’s either the runner-up of Group A or Group B, likely to be Italy, in the quarter-final. If England reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face France or Belgium if they win their groups. And then the likes of Germany and Spain in the final.

England key players for this year’s European Championship

England top Euros Golden Boot contender: Harry Kane

  • Key stat: In the Bundesliga this season Kane averages 1.21 goals per 90 minutes and 2.2 shots on target

No matter who Gareth Southgate picks for his England squad, Harry Kane will be the first in the 25 and the first on the team sheet. Captain and record goalscorer, It feels like England’s hopes will rest heavily on Kane bringing his shooting boots. Hopefully for England, Kane’s season in the Bundesliga will help him in the tournament, getting a feel for playing in Germany.

At the March international break, Kane has scored 31 goals in the Bundesliga, breaking the record for a player in his debut campaign in the tournament. With eight games left to play, Kane needs just 11 goals to break Robert Lewandowski’s record for most goals in a single Bundesliga season — with the Polish striker netting 41 in 2020/21. And it’s entirely possible too, as Kane is averaging 1.21 goals per 90 minutes and 2.2 shots on target.

In qualifying for Euro 2024, Kane scored eight goals from 11 attempts on target in eight games — though four of them were penalties — and managed four in Euro 2020 en route to the final, all coming in the knockout stages. He stands clear as England’s all-time top scorer.

England primary playmaker: Bukayo Saka

  • Key stat: The only England player to average more chances created than Saka (2.69) is Alexander-Arnold (2.94). In this respect, James Maddison is level with his Arsenal counterpart.

England are blessed with attacking threat, such as Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and more. But creatively, it feels as though Bukayo Saka will be the man to rely on. Saka can both score goals and create them, with 28 direct goal involvements across all competitions for Arsenal this season.

Twelve of those goal involvements have been assists, with eight coming in the Premier League and four in the Champions League. In the Champions League, no player has more assists than Saka’s four, with the Englishman joint-top alongside compatriot Bellingham. Saka has also proven himself to be key to the way England play under Southgate, whether he gets among the goals and assists or not.

England card magnets & top tacklers: Conor Gallagher

  • Key stat: Gallagher averages more fouls in the Premier League this season (2.39) than any England player.

Perhaps one of the names on the periphery of the squad, there is still a very good chance that Conor Gallagher will be in England’s team at the Euros. He’s a good player to have for pressing and will be an option both from the start and off the bench, to supplement Declan Rice.

The Chelsea midfielder has made 68 tackles in the Premier League this season, which places him in the top 10 — though he is some way off Joao Palhinha (110) in top spot. But he does lead the way in the Premier League for fouls, conceding 58 so far this season — 14 more than any other player. But that has only translated into five yellow cards and one red card.

England rising star: Kobbie Mainoo

All eyes will be on Kobbie Mainoo and whether he gets into the squad. The Manchester United midfielder wasn’t initially in Southgate’s squad for the March international break but was a late addition. This wasn’t due to another player dropping out due to injury, but rather Mainoo playing too well against Liverpool to be ignored.

Mainoo had been named in Lee Carsley’s squad for the England U21 squad before being promoted, and will now be fighting to show Southgate that he deserves to be on the plane to Germany. Without adding pressure onto Mainoo, the midfielder has been likened to Netherlands legend Clarence Seedorf in terms of playing style. He has also shown up in big games for the Red Devils and would be a good option for Southgate to call upon when required this summer.

England set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Harry Kane
  • Free kicks: Kieran Trippier
  • Corners: Declan Rice

England tactical analysis and formation

England team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 4.5
  • Corners conceded: 1.9
  • Shots on target: 5.8
  • Shots on target conceded: 1.1
  • Offsides: 0.9

Gareth Southgate has dabbled with a few formations as England manager, but he always seems to revert to a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. In qualifying for Euro 2024, Southgate used a 4-3-3 in seven of the eight games, so it makes sense to assume he’ll continue that this year.

In the 4-3-3, Southgate plays with one holding midfielder to link the defence with the rest of the team. That man has been Declan Rice, and should be for Euro 2024. The other two midfielders have two different roles. One of them, historically Kalvin Phillips, sits back to help Rice while the other — Jude Bellingham — pushes forward. It allows England to switch between a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, protecting the Three Lions defensively without taking away from the attack.

It also means England can afford to be less defensive against so-called weaker teams, allowing them to play with two more attacking midfielders alongside Rice — if Southgate feels like pushing the boat out. But there is the question of how Southgate gets all of England’s attacking talent into one starting XI.

At the back, there is the question as to where Southgate plays Trent Alexander-Arnold: in defence or midfield? It’s more likely to be midfield, with Kyle Walker a firm favourite on the right, while Kieran Trippier might be favoured on the left ahead of Ben Chilwell. Harry Maguire and John Stones feel hard to break up at the heart of the defence, with Jordan Pickford in goal.

Up front, two of the three spots pick themselves in Kane and Saka, but the third place is open. Foden will likely be the favourite as things stand, but Jack Grealish is another option if he is fit, as is Palmer.

England’s latest squad

Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper 30 Everton
Sam Johnstone Goalkeeper 30 Crystal Palace
Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper 25 Arsenal
Kyle Walker Defender 33 Manchester City
John Stones Defender 29 Manchester City
Harry Maguire Defender 31 Manchester United
Ben Chilwell Defender 27 Chelsea
Joe Gomez Defender 26 Liverpool
Lewis Dunk Defender 32 Brighton
Ezri Konsa Defender 26 Aston Villa
Jarrad Branthwaite Defender 21 Everton
Jordan Henderson Midfielder 33 Ajax
Declan Rice Midfielder 25 Arsenal
Jude Bellingham Midfielder 20 Real Madrid
Conor Gallagher Midfielder 24 Chelsea
James Maddison Midfielder 27 Tottenham
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder 18 Manchester United
Harry Kane Forward 30 Bayern Munich
Marcus Rashford Forward 26 Manchester United
Bukayo Saka Forward 22 Arsenal
Phil Foden Forward 23 Manchester City
Ollie Watkins Forward 28 Aston Villa
Jarrod Bowen Forward 27 West Ham
Cole Palmer Forward 21 Chelsea
Ivan Toney Forward 28 Brentford
Anthony Gordon Forward 23 Newcastle United

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