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England odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & key players

By Harry Edwards

Published: 17:00, 17 June 2024

England got their Euro 2024 campaign off to the perfect start with a 1-0 win over Serbia. Attention now turns to their clash with Denmark — will they be able to secure another vital three points?

Three years ago, the Three Lions were losing finalists, beaten by Italy at Wembley. It was the first final for the Three Lions since the 1966 World Cup, and fans had been dreaming of the 65 years of hurt ending. They were then knocked out of the World Cup quarter-finals, when the draw was on their side, beaten by France.

As usual, England are among the favourites to win Euro 2024, given a 25% chance of going all the way. But it feels like England will England when it matters, and they didn’t help matters with a nervy 1-0 opening-round win over Serbia.

Latest England odds to win Euro 2024
England to win Euro 2024
England to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals
England to win Group C
Harry Kane to win Golden Boot

England route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Serbia 0-1 England (16 June, Veltins-Arena)
  • Denmark (20 June 2024, 5pm, Deutsche Bank Park)
  • Slovenia (25 June 2024, 8pm, RheinEnergieStadion)

England’s potential knockout stage opponents

If England win Group C, they’ll face the best third-placed team from either Group D, E or F. Already it’s a messy start, but we could see England face the likes of Czech Republic, Romania or Austria. Then it’s either the runner-up of Group A or Group B, likely to be Italy, in the quarter-final. If England reach the semi-finals on this path, they’ll likely face France or Belgium if they win their groups. And then the likes of Germany and Spain in the final.

England key players for this year’s European Championship

England top Euros Golden Boot contender: Harry Kane

  • Key stat: Harry Kane averaged 1.14 goals and 2.12 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga.

No matter who Gareth Southgate picked for his England squad, Harry Kane was undoubtedly the first in the 26 and the first on the team sheet. Captain and record goalscorer, It feels like England’s hopes will rest heavily on Kane bringing his shooting boots. Hopefully for England, Kane’s debut season in the Bundesliga will help him in the tournament, getting a feel for playing in Germany.

In conclusion, Kane registered 36 goals in the Bundesliga, breaking the record for a player in his debut campaign in the tournament. However, the former Tottenham marksman fell five shy of equalling Robert Lewandowski’s record for most goals in a single Bundesliga season — with the Polish striker netting 41 in 2020/21. He looked on course at one point when averaging over 1 goal per 90 minutes and 2 shots on target.

In qualifying for Euro 2024, Kane scored eight goals from 11 attempts on target in eight games — though four of them were penalties — and managed four in Euro 2020 en route to the final, all coming in the knockout stages. He stands clear as England’s all-time top scorer.

England primary playmaker: Bukayo Saka

  • Key stat: Only James Maddison (2.8) averaged more chances created per 90 minutes in their league than Bukayo Saka’s 2.79 among the England squad.

England are blessed with attacking threat, such as Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and more. But creatively, it feels as though Bukayo Saka will be the man to rely on. Saka can both score goals and create them, with 34 direct goal involvements across all competitions for Arsenal this season.

Fourteen of those goal involvements have been assists, with nine coming in the Premier League and four in the Champions League. In the Champions League, only Marcel Sabitzer and Jude Bellingham (both five) had more assists than Saka’s four, which is impressive when you consider Arsenal were knocked out in the quarter-finals. Saka has also proven himself to be key to the way England play under Southgate, whether he gets among the goals and assists or not.

England card magnets & top tacklers: Conor Gallagher

  • Key stat: Conor Gallagher averaged more fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season (2.38) than player in the England squad.

At the moment, it’s looking like Gallagher will be part of Southgate’s starting midfield. He’s a good player to have for pressing and supplements Declan Rice, and Jude Bellingham well.

The Chelsea midfielder made 85 tackles in the 2023/24 Premier League season, which placed him in the top 15 — some way off Joao Palhinha (152) in top spot. But he did lead the way for fouls, conceding 83 — 17 more than any other player. However, that did only translate into seven yellow cards and one red card.

England rising star: Kobbie Mainoo

All eyes will be on Kobbie Mainoo this summer. The Manchester United midfielder wasn’t initially in Southgate’s squad for the March international break but was a late addition. This wasn’t due to another player dropping out due to injury, but rather Mainoo playing too well against Liverpool to be ignored.

Mainoo had been named in Lee Carsley’s squad for the England U21 squad before being promoted, and  has now earned his plane ticket to Germany. Without adding pressure onto Mainoo, the midfielder has been likened to Netherlands legend Clarence Seedorf in terms of playing style.

England set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Harry Kane
  • Free kicks: Kieran Trippier
  • Corners: Declan Rice

England tactical analysis and formation

England team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 4.5
  • Corners conceded: 1.9
  • Shots on target: 5.8
  • Shots on target conceded: 1.1
  • Offsides: 0.9

Gareth Southgate had a lot of decisions to make with regards to his final squad, and big calls were made. Earlier on Thursday reports started circling about names not making the cut.

James Maddison was the first to go, despite having been set to start against Iceland. After finding out he wasn’t in the final 26, Maddison left, later confirming his absence on social media.

“Devastated doesn’t quite cut it,” he wrote.

“Trained well and worked hard all week but if I’m honest with myself, my form for Spurs when coming back from injury in the second half of the season probably wasn’t at the levels I had set which gave Gareth a decision to make.

“I still thought there would be a space for me in a 26 man squad as I feel I bring something different & had been a mainstay in this whole qualifying campaign for Euro 2024 in Germany but the manager has made the decision and I have to respect that. I’ll be back, I have no doubt.

“Wishing the boys all the luck in the world out in Germany, unbelievable group and lads that I literally call some of my best friends. I genuinely hope football comes home.”

Harry Maguire was another big name to be left out, not quite managing to recover from his injury issues. He also spoke on social media, posting on his Instagram account: “I am devastated not to have been selected to play for England at the Euros this summer.

“Despite my best efforts, I have not been able to overcome an injury to my calf. Maybe I pushed myself too hard, to try and make it. Simply, I am absolutely gutted.

“For me, representing England is the highest honour. It means everything to me. If I can’t help the team as a player, I will support them as a fan – along with the rest of the country. Go and win it boys.”

Joining them in missing out were Jack Grealish, Jarrad Branthwaite, Curtis Jones, Jarell Quansah and James Trafford.

Southgate himself said: “All of the players took the news really respectfully. All players believe they should be in.

“We just feel other players have had stronger seasons, particularly in the last six months or so.

“The attacking areas of the pitch, we’re blessed with options. They’ve been tough calls, they’re calls we’ve gone over and over with the staff.

“We back our decisions but realise we could have gone a different route. Sad to have to deliver that news to them.”

Southgate has dabbled with a few formations as England manager, but he always seems to revert to a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. In qualifying for Euro 2024, Southgate used a 4-3-3 in seven of the eight games, so it makes sense to assume he’ll continue that this year.

In the 4-3-3, Southgate plays with one holding midfielder to link the defence with the rest of the team. That man has been Declan Rice, and should be for Euro 2024. The other two midfielders have two different roles. One of them, historically Kalvin Phillips, sits back to help Rice while the other — Jude Bellingham — pushes forward. It allows England to switch between a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, protecting the Three Lions defensively without taking away from the attack.

It also means England can afford to be less defensive against so-called weaker teams, allowing them to play with two more attacking midfielders alongside Rice — if Southgate feels like pushing the boat out. But there is the question of how Southgate gets all of England’s attacking talent into one starting XI.

At the back, there is the question as to where Southgate plays Trent Alexander-Arnold: in defence or midfield? It’s more likely to be midfield, though that could put him behind Gallagher in the pecking order. Kyle Walker is the firm favourite at right-back, with Kieran Trippier likely to be picked on the left, especially if Luke Shaw isn’t fully fit.

There will be a new centre-back pairing in Maguire’s absence, with Marc Guehi the most-fancied to join John Stones.

Up front, two of the three spots pick themselves in Kane and Saka, but the third place is open. Foden will likely be the favourite as things stand, but Cole Palmer is another option.

England final squad

Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper 30 Everton
Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper 26 Arsenal
Dean Henderson Goalkeeper 27 Crystal Palace
Kyle Walker Defender 34 Manchester City
John Stones Defender 30 Manchester City
Kieran Trippier Defender 33 Newcastle United
Luke Shaw Defender 28 Manchester United
Joe Gomez Defender 27 Liverpool
Marc Guéhi Defender 23 Crystal Palace
Ezri Konsa Defender 26 Aston Villa
Lewis Dunk Defender 32 Brighton
Declan Rice Midfielder 25 Arsenal
Jude Bellingham Midfielder 20 Real Madrid
Trent Alexander-Arnold Midfielder 25 Liverpool
Conor Gallagher Midfielder 24 Chelsea
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder 19 Manchester United
Adam Wharton Midfielder 20 Crystal Palace
Harry Kane Forward 30 Bayern Munich
Phil Foden Forward 24 Manchester City
Bukayo Saka Forward 22 Arsenal
Ollie Watkins Forward 28 Aston Villa
Jarrod Bowen Forward 27 West Ham United
Ivan Toney Forward 28 Brentford
Eberechi Eze Forward 25 Crystal Palace
Cole Palmer Forward 22 Chelsea
Anthony Gordon Forward 23 Newcastle United

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