Outright Odds

Croatia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 18:30, 25 March 2024 | Updated: 10:58, 28 March 2024

Croatia will seek to break their international trophy duck at Euro 2024 this summer.

Under the leadership of Zlatko Dalic, they’ve come agonisingly close. Across their last two World Cup campaigns, the Checkered Ones finished runners-up and third. However, sandwiched in between was a disappointing round of 16 exit from Euro 2020. Croatia has never exceeded the quarter-final stage in European football’s premier international tournament.

They are no longer the underdogs and remnants of their golden generation are still intact, so it remains to be seen which Croatian side will play in Germany this summer.

Latest Croatia odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Croatia to win Euro 2024 40/1 with Bet365 2.4%
Croatia to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 6/1 with BetVictor 14.3%
Croatia to win Group B 5/1 with BetVictor 16.7%
Andrej Kramaric to win Golden Boot 150/1 with Bet365 0.7%

Croatia route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Spain (15 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)
  • Albania (19 June 2024, 2pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • Italy (24 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)

Croatia potential knockout stage opponents

If Croatia are to win Group B, then a third-place team from Groups A, D, E, and F will face them in the first knockout round. Get past that showdown, then a potential quarter-final with hosts Germany or Group C runner-up (England’s group) awaits them. Following that, there could be a semi-final date with the Netherlands, Belgium, or Portugal, and then potentially, England or France will be in the Berlin final.

Croatia key players for this year’s European Championship

Croatia top Euros Golden Boot contender: Ante Budimir

  • Key stat: Only Jude Bellingham (16) has scored more goals in La Liga this season than Ante Budimir (15)

As of this writing, the race for the 2023/24 Pichichi Trophy is being closely fought between five players, with the surprise name of Ante Budimir sitting a single goal behind leader Jude Bellingham, with the Croatian forward already enjoying his most prolific top-flight campaign to date.

Budimir, who permanently switched to Osasuna in 2021, registered his previous best at Mallorca during the 2019/20 season (13 goals). Budimir averages 0.61 goals per 90 in Spain’s top division while netting one goal every 148 minutes. His goal conversion, though, is a meek 29% compared to Bellingham (40%) and Borja Mayoral (44%), with whom he is level on 15 goals.

Budimir has yet to pull up any trees on the international stage, having netted two goals across 19 appearances. That being said, his performances this season ensure a place in Croatia’s squad, and he’s one of the few out-and-out number 9s available.

Croatia primary playmaker: Luka Modric

  • Key stat: No one currently representing Croatia has created more big chances (9) across Europe’s Big Five leagues than Luka Modric.

This is undoubtedly Luka Modric’s swansong on the international stage. He’ll go down as his country’s most outstanding performer, and for his final trick, the Real Madrid maestro will hope to say goodbye by guiding Croatia to a first prize. By some margin, the oldest member of Zlatko Dalić’s set-up and perhaps ending up as the eldest statesman at the European Championships, the 38-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down. Though no longer ensured a starting berth in Carlo Ancelotti’s team, he’s still managed to produce four assists for Real this season, which is only bettered by three players as they race towards another La Liga crown.

Croatia card magnets & top tacklers: Marin Pongracic

  • Key stat: No one representing Croatia has committed more fouls (46) across Europe’s Big Five leagues than Marin Pongracic.

Even though he debuted four years ago, Marin Pongracic still has an element of freshness in Croatia’s squad. For one, the 26-year-old is back in the fold after going 18 consecutive international matches without being named in Dalic’s team. Pongracic, though, plays in one position where you can’t accuse Croatia of lacking. But as a regular in the heart of Lecce’s defence, he’s proven to be a naughty boy, having picked up eight yellow cards, four less than Leandro Paredes, who leads the disciplinary table.

Croatia rising star: Luka Sučić

A move to Red Bull Salzburg often bodes well for the future. Among the next crop of promising talents playing for the Austrian side is Luka Sučić, who last summer was heavily linked with a move to Liverpool as a Bellingham alternative. As it turned out, nothing transpired, with Sucic since enduring a campaign blighted with injury. Armed with five international caps, the 21-year-old midfielder, who cites Modric as his footballing role model, should make Croatia’s squad this summer unless something unfortunate comes to pass.

Croatia set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Luka Modric
  • Free kicks: Luka Modric
  • Corners: Luka Modric

Croatia tactical analysis and formation

Croatia team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 5.9
  • Corners conceded: 6
  • Shots on target: 7.4
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.9
  • Offsides: 1.6

There should be no surprises regarding Zlatko Dalic and how Croatia will be set up. The bulk of his matches in charge has seen the Balkan nation line up in an orthodox 4-3-3 system with a single midfield pivot. Croatia is perhaps at their strongest there, with Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozović all capable of affecting the game. However, it’s not a concrete triumvirate as Mario Pasalic, Lovro Majer, and Nikola Vlasic are options to be inserted there. Dalic has sometimes used a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 while, on rare occasions, he’s gone with a back-three. During their Euro qualifiers, which saw them finish runners-up in Group D behind Turkey by a single point, they averaged 62.5% possession while boasting an 88.75% passing accuracy. Furthermore, the 2018 World Cup finalists averaged 39.88 ball recoveries per match.

Croatia latest squad

Dominik Livaković Goalkeeper 29 Fenerbahçe
Nediljko Labrović Goalkeeper 24 Rijeka
Ivica Ivušić Goalkeeper 29 Pafos
Dominik Kotarski Goalkeeper 24 PAOK
Josip Stanišić Defender 23 Bayer Leverkusen
Marin Pongračić Defender 26 Lecce
Joško Gvardiol Defender 22 Manchester City
Martin Erlić Defender 26 Sassuolo
Duje Ćaleta-Car Defender 27 Lyon
Borna Sosa Defender 26 Ajax
Domagoj Vida Defender 34 AEK Athens
Josip Juranović Defender 28 Union Berlin
Lovro Majer Midfielder 26 VfL Wolfsburg
Mateo Kovačić Midfielder 29 Manchester City
Luka Modrić Midfielder 38 Real Madrid
Marcelo Brozović Midfielder 31 Al Nassr
Nikola Vlašić Midfielder 26 Torino
Mario Pašalić Midfielder 29 Atalanta
Luka Ivanušec Midfielder 25 Feyenoord
Andrej Kramarić Forward 32 1899 Hoffenheim
Bruno Petković Forward 29 Dinamo Zagreb
Marko Pjaca Forward 28 Rijeka
Marco Pašalić Forward 23 Rijeka

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