Outright Odds

Austria odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 11:00, 3 April 2024

Austria will seek a first major international tournament success when they head to neighbouring Germany this summer.

Led by the ‘godfather of gegenpressing’, there’s a renewed belief that Austria under Ralf Rangnick could be a dark horse.

This is the nation’s fourth European Championship appearance, and to make history, they must successfully navigate the first knockout round.

Latest Austria odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Austria to win Euro 2024 80/1 with Sky Bet 1.2%
Austria to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 8/1 with Bet365 11.1%
Austria to win Group D 8/1 with BetMGM 11.1%
Marko Arnautović to win Golden Boot 150/1 with Bet365 0.7%

Austria route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • France (17 June 2024, 8pm, Merkur Spiel-Arena)
  • Poland (21 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)
  • Netherlands (25 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)

Austria potential knockout stage opponents

If Austria manages to win Group D, they will face the runner-up team of Group F, which could be Turkey, Portugal, or Georgia. Later, in the quarter-finals, the winner of Group E or the best third-placed team from either Group A, B, C, or D (most likely Belgium) will play against Rangnick’s side. If the Dutch team reaches the semi-finals through this path, they will probably face England (if they win their group). After that, they may face Germany, Spain, or even a reunion with France in the final.

Austria key players for this year’s European Championship

Austria top Euros Golden Boot contender: Marko Arnautovic

  • Key stat: Marko Arnautovic is Austria’s all-time leading scorer with 36 goals

During their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, one-time Manchester United loanee Marcel Sabitzer finished as Austria’s leading marksman with four goals. Now plying his trade with Borussia Dortmund, fellow Bundesliga teammate Michael Gregoritsch is currently the most prolific Austrian, playing across Europe’s top five leagues. Gregoritsch netted three qualifying strikes and could add to his international tally in familiar surroundings this summer. However, a troublesome hamstring injury has reduced Marko Arnautovic’s appearances for Inter Milan, but when available, he’s expected to lead Rangnick’s attack.

Arnautovic’s experience counts for something, though with six previous Euro outings to his name, the ex-West Ham man could only manage one successful goal attempt.

Austria primary playmaker: Xaver Schlager

  • Key stat: No one representing Austria has created more goals across Europe’s big five leagues than Xaver Schlager (4).

One thing became evident as qualification for Euro 2024 was secured. Austria isn’t beholden to one source of creativity, with four different players matching the highest output for assists, which, to be fair, was a measly two. However, when focusing on domestic competition, primarily Europe’s big five, Florian Kainz stands out with 42 chances created in the Bundesliga. However, the FC Cologne midfielder hasn’t nailed down an international starting berth. The same cannot be said for Xaver Schlager of RB Leipzig, who has created one more goal than Kainz with his four. Schlager recently starred in their epic 6-1 win over Turkey, having scored and made another. He now has two assists in four outings for his country.

Austria card magnets & top tacklers: Stefan Posch

  • Key stat: No Serie A defender scored more goals than Stefan Posch in 2022-23.

Expected to be flying down Austria’s right flank will be Stefan Posch, who is no shrinking violet, having accumulated seven yellow cards in Serie A this season. Posch also received two during Austra’s qualifying campaign, which Maximilian Wöber and Guido Burgstaller matched. Regarding fouls committed in Europe’s big five leagues, Posch (27) only trails Xaver Schlager (30), who has collected two fewer bookings.

Austria rising star: Muhammed Cham

The most recently named Austria squad had seven players aged 23 or younger. Leopold Querfeld, an exciting defensive prospect at Rapid Wien, has one international cap before his 21st birthday, though it’s Clermont forward Muhammed Cham that many feel could have a breakout tournament. Cham, who came through at VfL Wolfsburg, left the German club without registering a single appearance before moving to France, where this season, he’s bagged four goals and four assists in 25 games. Cham’s 44 chances created is the best of any player recently called up. The native of Vienna, who debuted under Rangnick, has three caps (totalling 54 minutes). He’s unlikely to start in Germany but can make a difference coming off the bench.

Austria set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Marko Arnautović
  • Free kicks: Marcel Sabitzer
  • Corners: Marcel Sabitzer

Austria tactical analysis and formation

Austria team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 5.25
  • Corners conceded: 4.5
  • Shots on target: 6.6
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.75
  • Offsides: 2

Following a disappointing caretaker role at Manchester United, the former Red Bull football supremo Ralf Rangnick was installed as his nation’s manager. A first foray into international management has so far been going smoothly. Rangnick has overseen 20 matches, of which 12 have been successful, including the last five on the bounce. Rangnick’s reputation precedes him, and the Austrians’ approach to business shouldn’t be too dissimilar to his previous sides, which heavily emphasised counter-pressing. What shape they adopt when kicking off their campaign remains to be seen. Rangnick has experimented with several different formations, ranging from 3-5-2 to 4-3-3, with 4-4-2 being the most popular. What is sure will be those who will carry out his instructions, though David Alaba is touch and go, with recent reports suggesting he could recover in time after sustaining a severe knee injury.

Austria latest squad

Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper 28 Red Bull Salzburg
Tobias Lawal Goalkeeper 23 LASK
Patrick Pentz Goalkeeper 27 Brøndby
Maximilian Wöber Defender 26 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Kevin Danso Defender 25 Lens
Stefan Posch Defender 26 Bologna
Leopold Querfeld Defender 20 Rapid Wien
Phillipp Mwene Defender 30 Mainz 05
Stefan Lainer Defender 31 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Flavius Daniliuc Defender 22 Red Bull Salzburg
Xaver Schlager Midfielder 26 RB Leipzig
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder 22 RB Leipzig
Alexander Prass Midfielder 22 Sturm Graz
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder 30 Borussia Dortmund
Florian Grillitsch Midfielder 28 1899 Hoffenheim
Patrick Wimmer Midfielder 22 VfL Wolfsburg
Romano Schmid Midfielder 24 Werder Bremen
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder 24 RB Leipzig
Konrad Laimer Midfielder 26 Bayern Munich
Matthias Seidl Midfielder 23 Rapid Wien
Christoph Lang Midfielder 22 Rapid Wien
Andreas Weimann Forward 32 West Bromwich Albion
Michael Gregoritsch Forward 29 SC Freiburg
Maximilian Entrup Forward 26 TSV Hartberg
Muhammed Cham Forward 23 Clermont

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