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Albania to win Euro 2024 odds: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Harry Edwards

Albania odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 17:00, 16 June 2024

Albania will be hoping to make a name for themselves in what is just their second-ever major tournament at Euro 2024 this summer.

The Eagles were also at Euro 2016, finishing third in their group behind France and Switzerland, with one victory over Romania which wasn’t enough to secure passage to the last 16. A shock winner of their qualifying group, Albania still aren’t given much chance of success this summer, at just 0.2%.

With a horrible group, it’s hard to see Albania picking up a point, let alone qualifying for the knockout stages and they started their campaign with an unfortunate defeat to Italy in Dortmund despite taking the lead in the opening minute thanks to a quickfire Nedim Bajrami strike.

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Latest Albania odds to win Euro 2024
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Albania to win Euro 2024
Albania to win Group B

Albania route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Albania 1-2 Italy (15 June 2024, 8pm, Signal Iduna Park)
  • Croatia (19 June 2024, 2pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • Spain (24 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)

Albania’s potential knockout stage opponents

If we’re being realistic, Albania’s best chance of qualifying for the last 16 is as one of the third-placed sides. That would secure them a last 16 draw against either the winner of Group F or Group E’s winners, so Portugal or Belgium. If they go the Portugal route, then Albania could face Netherlands and Spain en route to a final against France. If they start against Belgium, then Albania could match France and England before facing Spain in the final.

Albania key players for this year’s European Championship

Albania top Euros Golden Boot contender: Armando Broja

  • Key stat: Armando Broja has scored five goals for Albania, the second-most of any player in their squad for Euro 2024.

Sylvinho made a big call in leaving out 13-goal Sokol Cikalleshi from his 27-man squad. So that means Armando Broja will bear the brunt of the goalscoring responsibility. The Slough-born striker has always represented Albania at international level, turning down an invitation to play for England U21 in 2019, earning his first senior call up in 2020. Despite playing 19 times for Albania, Broja’s time with his country has been hampered by injury and then a lack of playing time.

Albania primary playmaker: Jasir Asani

  • Key stat: Jasir Asani was the only Albania player to record more than one assist in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Jasir Asani plays his club football in South Korea with Gwangju FC, with their 2024 season only just having started. But he was the man to rely on for Albania in Euro 2024 qualifying. Not just because he set up two of Albania’s 12 goals in qualifying, but the fact that he’s their corner taker too. The 28-year-old took 12 of Albania’s 21 corners in qualifying, as well as nine free-kicks. If Albania want to cause Spain and Croatia problems, they may be better off doing it from set pieces. So Asani will be key.

Albania card magnets & top tacklers: Taulant Seferi

  • Key stat: Taulant Seferi made more tackles than any other Albania player in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Cikalleshi was prone to fouls and yellow cards in Euro 2024 qualifying, but Taulant Seferi was a busy man himself. Seferi made nine tackles in qualifying, more than any other Albania player. He also made 18 ball recoveries and three clearances. The midfielder committed seven fouls and was booked once, in just 394 minutes — averaging 1.6 fouls per 90 in qualifying. Playing on the left wing, a lot of Seferi’s action is against full-backs, so we could see some frustration grow up against the defensive stars of Spain and Croatia in their remaining games.

Albania rising star: Kristjan Asllani

Albania have done well at bedding their young players at an early age, which means someone like Kristjan Asllani already has 18 caps at the age of 22. But he is still very much a rising star, and part of the future of Albania. Asllani has lived in Italy since he was five and was eligible to represent the Azzurri but opted to stick with the nation of his birth. He was part of Inter Milan’s Serie A-winning side in 2023/24, scoring one goal and providing two assists in 771 minutes — an average of 0.35 goal involvements per 90 and 0.93 chances created.

Albania set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Armando Broja
  • Free kicks: Kristjan Asllani
  • Corners: Jasir Asani

Albania tactical analysis and formation

Albania team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 2.6
  • Shots on target: 3.8
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.1
  • Offsides: 2

It will be interesting to see whether tactics change given the group they are in this summer, but Albania have been pretty consistent in sticking with a 4-2-3-1 under Sylvinho. The former Arsenal and Barcelona defender took charge at the start of last year and has lost just three of his 11 games in charge, though two of those came this year.

With everyone fit Etrit Berisha might just win the battle to be No.1 goalkeeper, though he missed the recent international break through injury. It feels as though the defence picks itself, with Elseid Hysaj and Mario Mitaj in the wide positions and a centre-back pairing of Berat Djimsiti and Enea Mihaj.

In the double pivot, Ylber Ramadani and Kristian Asllani has been the go-to pairing, with the latter starting 10 of the 11 games under Sylvinho, and the former nine. Then, Nedim Bajrami appears to be the favoured No.10, or the extra midfield man if a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 is favoured.

On the flanks, Myrto Uzuni had a few opportunities early in Sylvinho’s time but there is now a settled wing partnership of Jasir Asani and Taulant Seferi. And, finally, through the middle we’d expect Armando Broja to lead the line. But the likes of Rey Manaj and Mirlind Daku have also taken the sole striker role of late.

Albania’s final Euro 2024 squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Etrit Berisha Goalkeeper 35 Empoli
Thomas Strakosha Goalkeeper 29 Brentford
Elhan Kastrati Goalkeeper 27 Cittadella
Elseid Hysaj Defender 30 Lazio
Berat Djimsiti Defender 31 Atalanta
Ardian Ismajli Defender 27 Empoli
Arlind Ajeti Defender 30 Cluj
Marash Kumbulla Defender 24 Sassuolo
Enea Mihaj Defender 25 Famalicao
Naser Aliji Defender 30 Voluntari
Ivan Balliu Defender 32 Rayo Vallecano
Mario Mitaj Defender 20 Lokomotiv Moscow
Amir Abrashi Midfielder 34 Grasshoppers
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder 28 Lecce
Klaus Gjasula Midfielder 34 Darmstadt
Qazim Laci Midfielder 28 Sparta Prague
Nedim Bajrami Midfielder 25 Sassuolo
Kristjan Asllani Midfielder 22 Inter Milan
Ernest Muci Midfielder 23 Besiktas
Medon Berisha Midfielder 20 Lecce
Rey Manaj Forward 27 Sivasspor
Armando Broja Forward 22 Fulham
Taulant Seferi Forward 27 Baniyas
Jasir Asani Forward 29 Gwangju FC
Mirlind Daku Forward 26 Rubin Kazan
Arber Hoxha Forward 25 Dinamo Zagreb

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