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Germany odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Harry Edwards

Germany odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 16:41, 21 March 2024 | Updated: 12:59, 28 March 2024

Germany will be hoping to make home comforts count when they host Euro 2024 this summer.

Die Mannschaft are three-time winners of the European Championships but haven’t lifted the trophy since 1996. Three years ago, Germany underwhelmed at the Euros, knocked out at the round of 16, beaten 2-0 by England.

As hosts, Germany are the third favourites, with a 13.3% chance of winning. But they aren’t in good form and, with a tough route to the final, might not make it past the quarter-finals.

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Latest Germany odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Germany to win Euro 2024 13/2 with BetUK 13.3%
Germany to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 5/4 with BetVictor 44.4%
Germany to win Group A 2/5 with Unibet 71.4%
Niclas Fullkrug to win Golden Boot 40/1 with Bet365 2.4%

Germany route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Scotland (14 June 2024, 8pm, Allianz Arena)
  • Hungary (19 June 2024, 5pm, MHPArena)
  • Switzerland (23 June 2024, 8pm, Deutsche Bank Park)

Germany’s potential knockout stage opponents

Should Germany win Group A, they’ll face the runners-up of Group C, most likely to be Denmark. If they get through that, the likely opponents are the Group B winners, which many will expect to be Spain. Then it’s a potential semi-final against the likes of Portugal, Netherlands or Slovakia. And the final could pit Germany against the likes of France or England.

Germany key players for this year’s European Championship

Germany top Euros Golden Boot contender: Niclas Fullkrug

Other European nations seem to have more recognised goalscoring forwards, but do not sleep on Niclas Fullkrug. The striker only made his Germany debut in late 2022, after a fine goalscoring run with Werder Bremen, and he’s proven he belongs on this stage. Although he isn’t scoring as frequently with Borussia Dortmund this season as at Werder Bremen, Fullkrug’s form at international level hasn’t dropped.

In 15 games for Germany, Fullkrug has 11 goals, failing to score in only four matches. He netted on his debut before scoring two goals in three games at the World Cup — one of the few shining lights as Germany were knocked out at the group stage. Then, as Germany played friendlies in 2023, Fullkrug went on two separate three-game scoring streaks — separated by only two games in which he failed to score (playing fewer than 25 minutes in each match).

Fullkrug has also still hit 11 goals in 24 Bundesliga games for Dortmund this season, including one hat-trick.

The other contenders are Kai Havertz, who has four goals in his last six Arsenal appearances, and Stuttgart’s 25-goal striker Denis Undav, who has received his first call-up.

Germany primary playmaker: Florian Wirtz

It’s hard to believe, but Florian Wirtz is still only 20. It feels as though the midfielder has been around for ages, and that’s because he has, making his Germany debut at the age of 18, one year on from his Bundesliga debut. He was one of the brightest young European stars towards the end of 2021 but his progress was brought to a halt by an ACL injury suffered in March 2022.

That injury ruled Wirtz out until the start of 2023 but he returned with a bang and is now back on track, looking like he barely missed a step. Wirtz has created 61 chances in the Bundesliga this season, with only five players managing more. He is also one of just four players to hit double figures for assists in the Bundesliga this season, currently on 10 for the campaign.

Germany card magnets & top tacklers: Maximilian Mittelstadt

Maximilian Mittelstadt will hope to make his mark on the Germany team this year leading up to the Euros. The Stuttgart left-back earned his first call-up to the senior squad after starring in the league, with Die Roten currently sitting pretty in third in the Bundesliga. Mittelstadt is more of a defensive full-back but has still recorded three assists from 19 chances created in the Bundesliga this season.

He sits the fourth-highest in the Bundesliga for tackles with 65 and fifth for interceptions on 38. But Mittelstadt has also committed 20 fouls and received four yellow cards.

Germany rising star: Maximilian Beier

Germany have some young players already establishing themselves in Wirtz and Jamal Musiala. But the next big thing right now appears to be Maximilian Beier. Though 21, Beier is enjoying a real breakthrough season with Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga after two years on loan with Hannover in the second tier.

The striker has 12 goals in 25 games in the Bundesliga in 2023/24, including two against Borussia Dortmund in a recent win. He’ll be a useful player to have in the squad if trusted by Julian Nagelsmann.

Germany set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Niclas Fullkrug
  • Free kicks: Leroy Sane
  • Corners: Ilkay Gundogan

Germany tactical analysis and formation

Julian Nagelsmann has overseen four games as Germany manager since replacing Hansi Flick and has used three different formations. The 4-2-3-1 has been used twice, with a 4-4-2 and then a 3-4-2-1, with varying success. It’s clear Nagelsmann is trying to work out what system fits a squad that has struggled for form over the past 18 months or so.

If pressed to guess what system Nagelsmann will settle on, the 4-2-3-1 seems most likely, as that is what he utilised most of the time at Bayern Munich. In this system, Nagelsmann is likely to use Joshua Kimmich and Ilkay Gundogan as the double pivot, though Leon Goretzka and Pascal Groß provide other options. When Germany lined up with a 4-2-3-1 against Turkey, Nagelsmann did play Kai Havertz at left-back, but surely he’ll go with an actual defender in Mittelstadt — with Benjamin Henrichs on the right. Mats Hummels isn’t in the current Germany squad, which makes the centre-back pairing easier to pick in Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah; the pair have started all four of Nagelsmann’s games so far, with Tah even playing at right-back once.

In the attacking midfield three, Jamal Musiala is a must pick through the middle, pushing Wirtz out to the left, with Leroy Sane on the right. Then, through the middle will be Fullkrug. That would leave Havertz to back an impact off the bench but it’s a role he can thrive in for Germany, yet to really set the world alight.

Germany’s latest squad

Marc-Andre ter Stegen Goalkeeper 31 Barcelona
Bernd Leno Goalkeeper 32 Fulham
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper 33 Hoffenheim
Joshua Kimmich Defender 29 Bayern Munich
Antonio Rudiger Defender 31 Real Madrid
Jonathan Tah Defender 28 Bayer Leverkusen
David Raum Defender 25 RB Leipzig
Benjamin Henrichs Defender 27 RB Leipzig
Robin Koch Defender 27 Eintracht Frankfurt
Waldemar Anton Defender 27 Stuttgart
Jan-Niklas Beste Defender 25 Heidenheim
Maximilian Mittelstadt Defender 27 Stuttgart
Toni Kroos Midfielder 34 Real Madrid
Ilkay Gundogan Midfielder 33 Barcelona
Jamal Musiala Midfielder 21 Bayern Munich
Florian Wirtz Midfielder 20 Bayer Leverkusen
Pascal Groß Midfielder 32 Brighton
Robert Andrich Midfielder 29 Bayer Leverkusen
Chris Fuhrich Midfielder 26 Stuttgart
Thomas Muller Forward 34 Bayern Munich
Kai Havertz Forward 24 Arsenal
Niclas Fullkrug Forward 31 Borussia Dortmund
Maximilian Beier Forward 21 Hoffenheim
Deniz Undav Forward 27 Stuttgart

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