Football News

Five ‘what if’ predictions for the Carabao Cup last 16 matches

By Harry Edwards

Published: 9:30, 19 December 2022

Before the Premier League returns on Boxing Day, some clubs will be testing themselves in the fourth round of the Carabao Cup.

For those who have been swept up in World Cup fever and may have forgotten, the third round took place just before the break with a handful of big names exiting the competition including Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal.

But now it is back, and for the Premier League sides, it will be their first taste of competitive football since before the World Cup. However, there are also six sides from outside the top flight who have already returned to league action – or not missed it at all in the case of the four who play in League One and League Two.

The eight matches of the fourth round will be split across three days with just two all-Premier League ties, and it can be hard to keep track of all the action. That’s where the new Squawka Live app comes in handy.

Squawka Live not only allows you to keep track of the latest scores and your favourite teams but also brings stats to the small screen, providing real-time updates so you never miss a bit.

With the Alerts feature you can also preset triggers that will notify you if specific in-play events such as match time, odds changes and goals/points happen. So we’ve come up with five matches for you to follow with predictions and which triggers will come in useful to track your options.

How to use Squawka Live's Alert triggers

With Squawka Live's Alert triggers, you can preset triggers that will notify you if specific in-play events occur. To set up your own triggers, follow the steps below.

  1. Download the Squawka Live app on the App Store or Google Play (here's the link). Currently, the app is available in the UK only.
  2. Find your selected live event and navigate to the Alerts tab.
  3. Click on create your first Alert and select a specific trigger.
  4. Select the event detail you want to receive a notification for.
  5. The Alert will be added to your home screen and you will be notified when your chosen event has occurred.


Man City vs Liverpool

  • The trigger: Exact score: Man City 1-0 Liverpool
  • The prediction: Liverpool to score next

It’s not often that games between Manchester City and Liverpool end without both teams finding the net. Sure, in the most recent meeting in the Premier League, Liverpool scored first and managed to keep Man City out but of the past 10 games across all competitions, there have been just two clean sheets.

In this instance, we’re predicting for Liverpool to come from behind against Man City, because that’s what they’ve been doing this season. In the Premier League, only Tottenham (nine) have scored more equalising goals than Liverpool’s eight, and Jurgen Klopp’s side has equalised in eight of the 12 games in which they have conceded first.

Going further, in eight of the past 10 games in which Man City have scored first against Liverpool, the Reds have scored the next goal.

MK Dons vs Leicester

  • The trigger: Selected odds on Leicester -1.25
  • The prediction: Asian Handicap: Leicester -1.25

With League One hosting Premier League when Leicester travel to MK Dons, this may be one of the less competitive fixtures – if the Foxes get their way.

Leicester is one of three sides to open the scoring 10+ times in the Premier League this season, joining Man City (11) and Arsenal (12), with 50% of those goals coming in the opening 15 minutes. Should they go ahead against MK Dons, you can expect Leicester to keep turning the screw, as they look to add the EFL Cup to their FA Cup win from recent years.

With this game, you can keep track of the Asian Handicap of Leicester -1.25 and select your Alerts trigger to which odds you want to keep an eye out for (higher than) so you get your best deal.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

  • The trigger: Match time: 30 minutes
  • The prediction: Newcastle to score first

Newcastle’s games haven’t been the most exciting for the neutral, particularly in the opening stages. There have been just five goals scored in the opening 30 minutes of Newcastle’s 15 Premier League games so far this season, with the Magpies scoring four and conceding one.

However, that doesn’t mean the entire first half is a lost cause. Newcastle has scored nine goals in the 15 minutes before half-time in the Premier League this season, and they start the second half well with seven in the 15 minutes after the break.

At the same time, no side has conceded more goals in the 15 minutes before half-time than Bournemouth in the Premier League this season with seven. In this instance, the trigger we’re suggesting is for the 30-minute mark to pass, allowing you to choose your Newcastle scoring bet – whether that’s to score first at 0-0 or to score next.

Man Utd vs Burnley

  • The trigger: Exact score: Man Utd 1-0 Burnley
  • The prediction: Man Utd to win

Vincent Kompany will be looking to get one over Man Utd again, as he did a fair few times during his playing career at Man City. However, if Man Utd scores first then his task will be a lot harder.

The Red Devils have a 100% record when they have scored first in the Premier League this season, winning all seven matches. With a trigger set for Man Utd to be 1-0 up, you can use this for any bet in the Red Devils’ favour.

Wolves vs Gillingham

  • The trigger: Wolves team difference 2 goals
  • The prediction: No goal

This game brings the biggest gap between two sides in the 2022/23 EFL Cup fourth round, with Wolves in the Premier League and Gillingham the last remaining League Two side. Many expect this to be a comfortable victory for Wolves, even with any players still missing after the World Cup, but it may not be a rout.

Wolves have not scored in the final 15 minutes in a Premier League game this season, but their opponents haven’t fared much better with Gillingham only managing five goals in that time (in 20 League Two games).

So if Wolves are comfortable in the game, two or three goals up for example (which can be tracked with your trigger) then back no more goals scored – or BTTS No if the Premier League side has kept a clean sheet up until that stage.

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