Football News

Kylian Mbappe to strike early for PSG? Champions League habits to inspire your in-game betting

By Harry Edwards

Published: 14:55, 6 March 2023 | Updated: 16:41, 7 March 2023

The Champions League returns this week and the first eight teams will be looking to secure their places in the quarter-finals.

As with the first legs, the second leg of the last 16 is split over two weeks, with some good matches across the fortnight. This week five former Champions League winners will be hoping to prolong their stays in the competition, with one having to come from behind to do so.

On Tuesday, Chelsea will chase a 1-0 deficit to Borussia Dortmund not only to continue their journey but also to keep alive their one hope of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. On the same day Benfica will be looking to hold onto their two-goal advantage over Club Brugge in the latest instalment of their quest to end the Bela Guttmann curse.

On Wednesday there is arguably the headline tie of this week as PSG travel to Bayern Munich 1-0 down on aggregate in their latest attempt to finally win the Champions League — the main goal since the Qatari takeover. Tottenham Hotspur must also come from a goal down if they are to get past seven-time Champions League winners AC Milan.

That’s quite a bit of action over two weeks but with the new Squawka Live app, you will be kept constantly in the loop.

Squawka Live not only allows you to keep track of the latest scores and your favourite teams but also brings stats to the small screen, providing real-time updates so you never miss a beat.

With the Alerts feature you can also preset triggers that will notify you if specific in-play events such as match time, odds changes and goals/points happen. So we’ve come up with five matches for you to follow with predictions and which triggers will come in useful to track your options.

How to use Squawka Live's Alert triggers

With Squawka Live's Alert triggers, you can preset triggers that will notify you if specific in-play events occur. To set up your own triggers, follow the steps below.

  1. Download the Squawka Live app on the App Store or Google Play (here's the link). Currently, the app is available in the UK only.
  2. Find your selected live event and navigate to the Alerts tab.
  3. Click on create your first Alert and select a specific trigger.
  4. Select the event detail you want to receive a notification for.
  5. The Alert will be added to your home screen and you will be notified when your chosen event has occurred.


Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund

The trigger: Exact score: Chelsea 0-1 Borussia Dortmund
The prediction: Double chance Borussia Dortmund/Draw

Chelsea know they need to start fast against Borussia Dortmund if they are to have any chance of making it to the quarter-finals. It’s not a big deficit for Chelsea to overcome and some may still fancy the Blues’ chances, but they haven’t exactly been inspiring in attack.

Across all competitions since Graham Potter took charge, Chelsea have scored 26 goals in 27 games, and more damning just seven in 13 since returning from the World Cup. To make matter worse for Chelsea, they aren’t good at coming from behind.

Including the first seven games of the season which were played under Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea have conceded the first goal 15 times across all competitions. Of those 15 matches, Chelsea have gone on to lose the game, with just three victories. Furthermore, Chelsea are on a streak now of nine straight matches in which they have lost after conceding the first goal.

Of course, these numbers could be skewed by the first goal being scored late on eight of the 15 opening goals conceded by Chelsea this season have come in the opening 45 minutes, with the latest coming in the 67th minute (Joe Willock’s strike for Newcastle in their 1-0 win just before the World Cup break).

Benfica vs Club Brugge

The trigger: Under 2.5 goals hits preferred odds
The prediction: Under 2.5 goals

Benfica are one of three teams to go into their last 16 second legs with more than a one-goal advantage thanks to their 2-0 win over Club Brugge in Belgium. Before that game there was a lot of focus on Club Brugge’s defence, having kept clean sheets in five of their six group stage matches.

However, now the focus must turn to Club Brugge’s attack as they look to overcome the two-goal deficit. Unfortunately, it doesn’t make for good reading. Club Brugge have now gone four games without a goal in the Champions League, their longest ever such drought in the competition.

The run started with a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid in their fourth group match and brought another stalemate with Bayer Leverkusen — not before Club Brugge were beaten 4-0 by FC Porto. And then, of course, last month’s first leg against Benfica made it four. To make matters worse, Club Brugge managed just four shots on goal in the first leg, with their only effort on target coming after five minutes.

Download the new Squawka Live app

  1. Download the Squawka Live app on the App Store or Google Play (here's the link). Currently, the app is available in the UK only.
  2. Follow your favourite sports, teams and leagues to receive notifications.
  3. Compare odds and set alerts for specific match scenarios.
  4. Use Squawka Live as your second screen with real-time updates from free-kicks to blocked shots and offsides.

Bayern Munich vs PSG

The trigger: Match time: More than 15 minutes
The prediction: Goal to be scored 16-30

Kingsley Coman’s winner in the first leg between Bayern Munich and PSG came in the 53rd minute, but recent trends point towards there being more action in the first half this time around.

Focusing on the past six matches across all competitions, Bayern have scored 15 goals and conceding six, with the majority of their strikes (nine) coming in the opening 45 minutes. At the same time, they have conceded two of the six goals in the first time.

PSG meanwhile have scored 13 goals and conceded 11 in their past six matches, with eight for and seven against in the first half. One man who could find himself among the early goals is Kylian Mbappe, who does enjoy playing at the Allianz Arena.

The Frenchman wasn’t expected to play in the first leg due to injury but came back in time and made a substitute appearance. He wasn’t at the peak of his powers but Mbappe did still manage to put the ball in the back of the net, though it was ruled out by VAR for offside. Mbappe has scored in both of his Champions League away games against Bayern Munich, netting three goals, with no player ever scoring in three consecutive visitors to the German side in the competition.

Tottenham vs AC Milan

The trigger: Exact score: Tottenham 0-1 AC Milan
The prediction: Double chance Tottenham/Draw

When Tottenham and AC Milan met in the last 16 of the 2010/11 Champions League, a 1-0 win in the first leg was enough to secure passage into the quarter-finals. Then, it was Peter Crouch finding the net for Tottenham at the San Siro, so fans of the English club will be hoping there isn’t another goalless home draw this week as that will see them knocked out of the Champions League.

Brahim Diaz scored the only goal for AC Milan in the first leg, opening the scoring after just seven minutes, stabbing the ball over the line after a good save from Fraser Forster. It was the fifth time Tottenham have conceded the first goal of a Champions League this season, from just seven matches in total. The only two matches they didn’t concede first in, Tottenham kept clean sheets in a 2-0 win over Marseille and goalless draw with Eintracht Frankfurt.

However, while going behind against AC Milan led to defeat, that isn’t always the case. Of the five games in which Tottenham have conceded first in the Champions League this season, they have avoided defeat on three occasions.

First there were wins over Eintracht Frankfurt and Marseille, plus a draw with Sporting CP. But there were two defeats to with Sporting the other side, along with AC Milan, to beat Tottenham having scored first.