Swansea v Cardiff EFL Championship prediction and stats: Swans domination of South Wales derby to continue?
The South Wales derby has been a highlight of the Championship fixture programme for the last five seasons, but it has been dominated by the men in white.
Cardiff fans won’t necessarily be coming into this with much confidence either. Two Championship matches, two defeats, is not the way that Erol Bulut would have envisaged the season beginning. However, there are silver linings which are preventing open revolt in the fanbase, the actual performances are showing promise. The technical level of the team is clearly improved, but both ends of the pitch need sharpening up.
Swansea will certainly be hoping to continue their South Wales derby domination and are probably in a more confident and secure place in their football.
Both teams are technically sound, so it will be interesting to see how that impacts on what can often be a blood-and-thunder affair.
How to watch Swansea vs Cardiff live
This game will be broadcast live on Sunday 25th August at 3pm (UK time) on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football, as well as the new Sky Sports + app.
Three predictions for Swansea vs Cardiff
Swansea to win (21/20 with Bet Goodwin)
Home advantage did mean something in this derby last season, with 2-0 wins for each team at home. Swansea’s record at home in the derby reads WWWLWW, and with a confident home win behind them already this season, there is a lot of historic form on their side.
However, more convincing is the coherence of the team under Luke Williams. Williams has had a few months, and, importantly, a pre-season to work with his squad now, and this is beginning to pay dividends.
Eom Ji-Sung First Goalscorer (10/1 with Bet365)
The South Korean prospect has begun very positively in his Swansea career. In his two Championship matches he is second on the list of Swansea’s open play xG numbers, which means that he is getting chances.
Eom hasn’t scored yet but this is surely only a matter of time, he scored 11 times for Gwangju prior to joining Swansea, and the 22-year-old is getting into promising positions.
Aaron Ramsey to be carded (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Cardiff’s leader and icon has started the season playing deeper in midfield and helping to dictate the play. However, this also means that he is involved in the battles in the centre of midfield as well. He is leading Cardiff’s foul count at this stage of the season, and that makes the 7/2 available for him to be booked in the derby, especially given the passion he will obviously have for the match, looks to be good value.
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How both teams go into Swansea vs Cardiff
Swansea have lost one and won one in the Championship this season, and they also got a comfortable win in the EFL Cup in what could’ve been a tricky encounter with Gillingham.
The 0-1 defeat at Middlesbrough showed the Swansea team to be lacking in chance creation, but going to the Riverside Stadium this season could prove to be a tough ask for many teams. Luke Williams would’ve been much happier with the confident home performance against Preston, where they won the xG battle 2.3 vs 0.8, as well as actually winning the match 3-0. With that fresh in their minds, both players and fans will be hopeful of carrying that into the derby.
Cardiff have had to endure a really tough fixture list at the beginning of the season. A 0-2 reverse at home to Sunderland actually had many Black Cats fans purring about Cardiff’s football after the Bluebirds played Sunderland off the pitch for much of the match. Again, on paper, a 0-5 defeat is a disaster, as was the case at Turf Moor against Burnley, but the xG count showed that Burnley only created chances worth 0.8 xG, and Cardiff made 0.5 xG of chances themselves
Swansea host Cardiff at the Swansea.com Stadium on Sunday 25th August at 3pm.
Swansea team news
There are no new injury concerns for Luke Williams, and, indeed, two new signings are due to be confirmed on Friday. However, it would be unlikely to see any new signings take part in Sunday’s match.
There are a number of players in line to make their South Wales derby debuts, but a couple of veterans in there as well.
Possible Swansea XI: Vigouroux; Key, Cabango, Darling, Tymon; Grimes, Franco; Eom, Cooper, Ronald; Cullen.
Cardiff team news
Quotes from Erol Bulut suggest that new signing Jesper Daland could come straight into the squad, if not the starting XI. Aaron Ramsey and Joe Ralls should be fit, and Alex Robertson and Anwar El-Ghazi are nearing full fitness, though neither would be expected to start here.
Possible Leeds XI: Horvath; Ng, Chambers, Goutas, Daland; Siopsis, Ralls; Kanga, Ramsey, Willock; Meite.
Swansea vs Cardiff head-to-head
It is something of a sore topic amongst the Cardiff City fanbase how dominant Swansea have been in this South Wales derby in recent years. Cardiff have only avoided defeat in three of the last eleven derbies. Last season the spoils were shared with two 2-0 home wins in the Championship.
| Swansea vs Cardiff H2H | |||||||
| Date | Score | Ground | |||||
| 16/03/24 | Swansea 2-0 Cardiff | Swansea.com Stadium | |||||
| 16/09/23 | Cardiff 2-0 Swansea | Cardiff City Stadium | |||||
| 01/04/23 | Cardiff 2-3 Swansea | Cardiff City Stadium | |||||
| 23/10/22 | Swansea 2-0 Cardiff | Swansea.com Stadium | |||||
| 02/04/22 | Cardiff 0-4 Swansea | Cardiff City Stadium | |||||
| 17/10/21 | Swansea 3-0 Cardiff | Swansea.com Stadium | |||||
