The Ultimate Guide to Football Betting Strategy
A football betting strategy is a plan or outline that guides a punter to make a profit on football betting. Some require no knowledge, and some require an in-depth understanding of the sport.
In this piece, we’ll introduce you to some of the most popular strategies and how to utilise them. Unfortunately, there is no best football betting strategy – betting is about finding what works for an individual. However, read on if you want to maximise your chances of winning in football betting.
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Seven Proven Football Betting Strategies to Maximize Your Winnings
Below, we take a closer look at eight popular football betting strategies.
1. Value Betting
Value Betting is where you take a bet that is more likely to land than the implied odds that a bookmaker offers. Bookmakers use their models, statistics, and various data to set odds. Typically, the odds offered by bookies strongly reflect the actual likelihood of an event, as firms use models, statistics, and various data to set odds. However, determining the true odds can be tricky. To develop an effective betting strategy, it’s essential to form your estimate of the true odds and weigh that against what the bookmaker is offering.
One of the best examples is to think of a simple coin toss. The odds of the coin landing on heads or tails is 50%. When looking at odds, 1/1 (2.00) has an implied probability of 50%, so in theory, this is the price for either heads or tails in our coin toss.
If someone offered you odds of 6/5 (2.20) on either heads or tails, and you accepted, this would be a value bet. If you repeat the coin toss over and over again while taking 6/5 instead of 1/1, you would ultimately win more money than you would lose.
2. Taking Advantage of New Customer Offers
Many punters stick to just using one bookmaker, which can be a crucial mistake in trying to make a long-term profit. Besides being able to take advantage of the best odds that are available, you can also maximise your bankroll by hoovering up free bets and welcome bonuses upon sign-up. Some bookmakers offer up to £50 in Free Bets when registering and placing a qualifying bet of £10.
One of our favourite sign-up offers is from Copy Bet, who are currently offering £50 in Free Bets when you sign-up and place a £10 bet at minimum odds of 1/1 (2.00). Paddy Power is another firm we think you should consider adding to your punting arsenal, with an offer that is suited for football bettors, with £50 in Free Bets on arrival after a qualifying bet of £10.
3. Arbitrage
Another popular strategy is arbitrage betting or ‘arbing’ for short. Simply put, it is being able to back a selection at a higher price than you can lay it with an exchange.
For example, if bet365 is offering 6/4 (2.50) Manchester United beat Arsenal at Old Trafford. However, on the Betfair Exchange, the price to lay Manchester United is currently 2.3, which is shorter than 6/4. You could place a bet with bet365 and lay the same selection on Betfair and guarantee yourself a profit.
These types of situations occur more often than you would think, especially in the early stages of a market before it has gained liquidity. To be successful, you need to be on the ball to take advantage of them, as there are a lot of bettors looking for the same things.
4. Cut out Accas
Most football punters were born into the betting world by placing a £1 accumulator with a slip the size of your arm on a Saturday afternoon. Picking out 15 teams to win an eye-watering amount of money may sound like the way to go. Still, historically, bookmakers prefer customers who place multiples as they are often losing players.
Bookmakers use an overround on their markets, which allows them to guarantee themselves a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. Combining selections into multiples increases the cumulative overround for the bookmaker, making winning harder. However, if you had numerous selections with a positive Expected Value (EV), this can work in your favour. Traditionally, punters who place singles tend to be more profitable.
5. Lay the Draw
One of the most popular betting exchanges is Matchbook, which we recommend for its excellent range of markets and substantial welcome offer of £50 in Free Bets when you bet £50. Many players enjoy a strategy where they lay the draw before a football match starts.
An early goal, either way, will allow you to back the draw at a much higher price than you layed it at, which guarantees you a profit no matter what happens for the remainder of the match.
It is essential to pick a suitable game for this. It would be hoped that a strong favourite against an underdog (Manchester City at home to West Ham, for example) could get in front early enough to make this a quick and easy lay-to-back scenario.
Unfortunately, this has become such a popular strategy in recent years that it is hard to get started in some markets as punters are all looking to place the same bets. That can make it difficult to trade out of your position during the match if a draw is more likely to be the full-time result.
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6. Find Proven Tipsters
Many people looking to make a long-term profit do not have the time to put in hours of research and look to find a tipster whose bets they can follow. Unfortunately, a lot out there are not trustworthy, so it is advised that you look for a tipster with a total profit and loss record stretching back and one who clearly knows what they are doing.
This is an easy way to learn more about football and how others come up with their tips. You can read their reasoning, understand how they pick out their bets and start doing it yourself.
7. Pareto
Pareto is a principle often used in business that says that 80% of outcomes are derived from 20% of the causes. In football, this can mean that 80% of trophies will be won by just 20% of the clubs. A quick look down the list of Premier League winners will show you that this is pretty much the case.
So, how do we apply this principle when finding the best football betting strategy? It is all about finding your specialities. Take the leading football leagues to bet on in the UK – there’s the Premier League, Championship, Leagues 1 & 2, plus the National League.
The Pareto principle says you pick one and don’t consider looking at the others. Furthermore, find the right markets to bet on. Many bookmakers will offer odds on many variables, so find a small percentage of what you know and stick to it.
It is all about being able to stay disciplined.
Profits will be more prominent when you have a narrower field of vision. Of course, picking those markets, to begin with, can be hit and miss, but keep a complete list of your bets, and it will quickly become apparent what 20% of the markets you should be concentrating on.
