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Southampton vs West Brom Championship Play-Offs Predictions, Tips and Odds: Can Saints go straight back to Premier League?

Neither Southampton nor West Brom could gain the upper hand in their Championship play-off semi-final first leg, which ended goalless at The Hawthorns, but Russell Martin’s side now has the crucial home advantage.

Southampton vs West Brom predictions

Southampton vs West Brom: Predictions

Bet Prediction Bookmaker odds
BTTS? Yes 10/11 with SkyBet
Correct Score Southampton 2-1 West Brom 15/2 with Bet365
First Goalscorer Adam Armstrong 9/2 with Bet365

The stats behind our Southampton vs West Brom predictions:

  • Both teams have scored in 65% of Southampton’s Championship matches this season.
  • Southampton have scored at least two goals in five of their past seven games against West Brom.
  • Adam Armstrong has scored in six of his last 12 Championship starts.

Who will hold their nerve?

On paper, this was expected to be the more evenly-matched of the two Championship play-off semi-finals, as just one place separated the two sides. It proved the case as they could not be separated at The Hawthorns as the second Championship play-off semi-final of the day finished goalless. Like Norwich City and Leeds United earlier, Albion and Saints cancelled each other in a game of few chances.

Southampton will no doubt be gutted that they didn’t secure automatic promotion back to the Premier League, particularly after putting themselves in the conversation thanks to a 22-game unbeaten run from September to February.

But in the end, inconsistency got to Saints, who ended the season with three straight defeats before destroying Leeds’ slim automatic promotion hopes on the final day. Southampton haven’t had to deal with the play-offs since 2006/07 when they were beaten semi-finalists. And rather than building on that, Southampton eventually dropped down the Championship table and into League 1 before their remarkable revival.

On the other hand, West Brom is in its third season out of the Premier League and has been in the Championship for five of its past six campaigns. In 2018/19, one of those campaigns saw the Baggies make the playoffs, but they were beaten on penalties in the semi-finals by Aston Villa, who had finished one point behind them.

The Baggies will be hoping to cause the same upset that Villa five years ago, having secured fifth on the final day. On paper, West Brom was in danger of being caught, and they couldn’t afford to lose, lest Hull overtake them by beating Plymouth. Ultimately, Hull lost, but West Brom could leapfrog Norwich into fifth place thanks to their comfortable victory over Preston. It wasn’t predictable either, as West Brom had lost their three matches before the season’s final game.

Southampton vs West Brom match tip

Over 1.5 Southampton goals @ 5/6 by Bet365

Southampton had beaten West Brom home and away this season, winning 2-0 at the Hawthorns and 2-1 at St Mary’s. But they were unable to make it a hat-trick. That said, recent history shown they like scoring at least two goals against the Baggies. Southampton have netted at least two goals in five of their past seven games against West Brom across all competitions, except a 3-0 defeat at the Hawthorns three years ago.

Southampton vs West Brom odds


*Odds correct as of 18:30 on May 12. 18+ only. GambleAware.

Southampton are the favourites for this game, but they are very close. Not much separates the two sides ahead of the first leg, with West Brom particularly strong at home this year.

Southampton vs West Brom team news

West Brom team news

In  Out Doubtful
Gavin Bazunu, Stuart Armstrong

Gavin Bazunu and Stuart Armstrong are out.

Top Scorer: Adam Armstrong (21)

Card Magnet: Jan Bednarek (12)

Assist Ace: Adam Armstrong (13)

West Brom team news

In  Out Doubtful
Jayson Molumby, Daryl Dike Che Adams

Jayson Molumby and Daryl Dike remain out.

Top Scorer: Brandon Thomas-Asante (11)

Card Magnet: Cedric Kipre (11)

Assist Ace: Grady Diangana (8)

How to watch Southampton vs West Brom Live

Southampton host West Brom on Friday 17th May at 8pm, with the game set to be broadcast live on Sky Sports Football. You can follow all the latest action and stats on the Squawka Live X feed.

West Brom vs Southampton head-to-head

  • 12 May 2024 – West Brom 0-0 Southampton – Championship
  • 16 February 2024 – West Brom 0-2 Southampton – Championship
  • 11 November 2023 – Southampton 2-1 West Brom – Championship
  • 12 April 2021 – West Brom 3-0 Southampton – Premier League
  • 4 October 2020 – Southampton 2-0 West Brom – Premier League

Southampton had won both regular-season meetings with West Brom before the first-leg goalless stalemate. The Saints have won seven of the past nine meetings between these two sides. The sole West Brom victory during that run was a 3-0 win in the Premier League in April 2021.

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