Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Predictions, Tips and Odds: Last chance saloon
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich lock horns in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final clash. The two European giants could not be separated in the first leg, with the tie level at 2-2.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich predictions
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Predictions |
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| Bet | Prediction | BetMGM odds |
| BTTS? | Yes | 13/25 |
| Correct Score | Real Madrid 2-1 Bayern Munich | 15/2 |
| First Goalscorer | Vinicius Jr | 21/5 |
The stats behind our Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich predictions:
- There have been three clean sheets between these two teams in the last 13 meetings.
- Bayern Munich haven’t won away at Real Madrid since May 2001, losing six and drawing one of seven subsequent visits.
- No Real Madrid player has scored more goals in this season’s Champions League than Vinicius Jr (5).
Last chance saloon for Bayern Munich and Harry Kane
Real Madrid have already wrapped up the La Liga title, doing so at the weekend thanks to their win over Cadiz and Barcelona losing to Girona. This now represents the chance for a European and league Double for Los Blancos. But for Bayern Munich, this is even more of a must-win.
Not since 2011/12 have Bayern Munich failed to win a single trophy in a season, when they finished runners-up in the Bundesliga, Champions League and DFB-Pokal. This season, the Bundesliga is long gone, with Bayern conceding the title to Bayer Leverkusen a few weeks ago, and they now sit 15 points behind the new champions with two matches left. Bayern were also knocked out of the DFB-Pokal in the second round by third-tier side FC Saarbrucken, a real low point of the campaign. So it’s all or nothing in the Champions League.
That’s also the case for Harry Kane. When Kane swapped Tottenham Hotspur for Bayern Munich, everyone expected his long wait for a trophy to come to an end. Albeit unfairly given his goalscoring ability, many opposition fans still base their opinion of Kane on his lack of trophies. He has picked up a couple of Golden Boots, including one at the 2018 World Cup, but Kane hasn’t lifted a team trophy yet.
So, of course, when Bayern’s Bundesliga dominance came to an end, there were a lot of jokes about Kane being cursed. The Englishman has scored 36 goals in the Bundesliga with a further eight assists, but it will be for nothing. But there is still a chance in the Champions League.
Kane is the joint-top scorer in the Champions League this season on eight goals, a tally only matched by Kylian Mbappe. This comes despite Kane taking just 33 shots and hitting the target 15 times, ranking him fifth and fourth in the Champions League respectively. But Kane has scored eight big chances, more than any other player in the Champions League, while only missing three — a conversion rate of 72.8% for big chances alone.
Kane’s eight goals have also come from an xG of 6.63, meaning he’s scored 1.37 goals more than he should have based on his chances. One of the reasons for that is Kane’s shot placement. The Englishman has an Expected Goals on Target tally of 8.2, a 1.57 improvement on his xG. We all know Kane is a fantastic finisher, but can he be the one to get Bayern to Wembley? Three of Kane’s goals in the Champions League this season have been game-winning.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich match tip
Rodrygo over 1.5 shots on target @ 6/4 with BetMGM
There is always a lot of talk about Vinicius Jr when it comes to Real Madrid, but Rodrygo has been causing defences problems in the Champions League this season. The Brazilian has scored five goals in the competition so far, and has averaged 1.8 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds
Real Madrid are the strong favourites at home and will fancy their chances of making the final now after managing to come away from Munich all square last week.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich team news
Real Madrid |
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| In | Out | Doubtful |
| – | David Alaba | – |
David Alaba isn’t expected back until next season but Carlo Ancelotti should have an otherwise fully fit squad available to him. That includes goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who kept a clean sheet in the weekend’s La Liga title-clinching 3-0 win over Cadiz — his first competitive club appearance since June last year.
Top Scorer: Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo (5)
Card Magnet: Aurelien Tchouameni, Dani Carvajal (3)
Assist Ace: Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham (4)
Bayern Munich team news |
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| In | Out | Doubtful |
| – | Bouna Sarr, Kingsley Coman, Raphael Guerreiro, Sacha Boey, Tarek Buchmann | Matthijs de Ligt, Eric Dier |
Matthijs de Ligt missed the defeat to Stuttgart at the weekend, having also missed the first leg, but he has returned to training so there is hope for Bayern Munich — though Eric Dier has now suffered a knock. Kingsley Coman is still sidelined while Raphael Guerreiro picked up a muscle injury at the weekend and will be out until the end of the month. Thomas Tuchel rotated somewhat in Saturday’s 3-1 defeat to Stuttgart but will return to his first-choice lineup here.
Top Scorer: Harry Kane (8)
Card Magnet: Alphonso Davies (3)
Assist Ace: Harry Kane (3)
How to watch Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Live
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich kicks off on Wednesday, 8th May, at 8pm (UK time) and will be broadcast live in the UK on TNT Sports 1. You can follow all the latest action and stats on the Squawka Live X feed.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
- 30 April 2024 – Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid – Champions League
- 1 May 2018 – Real Madrid 2-2 Bayern Munich – Champions League
- 25 April 2018 – Bayern Munich 1-2 Real Madrid – Champions League
- 18 April 2017 – Real Madrid 4-2 Bayern Munich – Champions League
- 12 April 2017 – Bayern Munich 1-2 Real Madrid – Champions League
Since losing in the first leg of their 2011/12 Champions League semi-final, Real Madrid are unbeaten in their past eight games against Bayern Munich. The first did see them still knocked out, winning 2-1 only to lose on penalties, but Real Madrid have won five and drawn two of the past six meetings.
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