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Germany vs Italy predictions, odds, betting tips and team news

Germany host Italy in the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie on Sunday, 23 March, at 7:45 pm (UK time). Germany hold a slender 2-1 lead heading into the second leg. 

Match Result: Germany (5/6 with Betfair)

Germany are unbeaten in nine games at home, with Netherlands, Bosnia and Hungary all falling to the German National side in recent times. This record stretches back to November 2023 when Germany were beaten 3-2 by Turkey.

Jamal Musiala 1+ Assists (4/1 with bet365)

Jamal Musiala has emerged as one of the most important players in the German side, providing two goals and three assists in five Nations League games this season.

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Germany vs Italy Odds

Germany vs Italy All odds with BetMGM
Win-Draw-Win Market Home Win Draw Away win
Match Odds 7/10 11/4 17/5
Both Teams to Score BTTS – Yes BTTS – No
Match Odds 10/13 10/11
Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals
Match Odds 17/20 22/25

How both teams go into Germany vs Italy

France and Italy had already qualified for the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals before their encounter. The match was crucial for securing the top spot in the group. Italy entered the game in first place, but they lost that position to France. The four-time world champions finished the group stage level on points with France (13 points each) but had an inferior goal difference (+5 compared to France’s +6).

Germany, who were already guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals, dominated Group A3, finishing five points ahead of the others after concluding their campaign with a decisive 7-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina. They ended the League A group phase as the highest scorers with a total of 18 goals. However, despite their impressive international history, Germany has never advanced to the Nations League semi-finals. That could well change this time around with Germany holding a 2-1 advantage heading into the second leg.

Italy team news

Andrea Cambiaso is a doubt, despite being called up. Left-side specialists Destiny Udogie and Matteo Ruggeri should be in contention to replace the injured Federico Dimarco. Torino’s Cesare Casadei could earn his first senior cap. Since switching from Chelsea, he has been a regular in the Granata’s midfield. Manuel Locatelli of Juventus has been left out.

Germany team news

One notable absentee from Germany’s squad is Bayer Leverkusen playmaker Florian Wirtz, who is sidelined for several weeks after sustaining an ankle injury. Bayern Munich midfielder Aleksandar Pavlović could earn a recall after not being part of the last international break. Deniz Undav, who has scored in two of Germany’s last three away Nations League matches, also hopes to be involved.

Germany vs Italy head-to-head

This will be the 38th international meeting between Italy and Germany, with the Azzurri currently leading 15–10 in the head-to-head. However, Italy are winless in their previous six meetings (three draws and three losses).

Germany vs Italy H2H
Date Score Competition
20 Mar 2025 Italy 1-2 Germany UEFA Nations League
14 Jun 2022 Germany 5-2 Italy UEFA Nations League
04 Jun 2022 Italy 1-1 Germany UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2016 Italy 0-0 Germany International Friendly
02 Jul 2016 Germany 1-1 Italy UEFA European Championship

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