Germany vs Italy predictions, odds, betting tips and team news
Germany host Italy in the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie on Sunday, 23 March, at 7:45 pm (UK time). Germany hold a slender 2-1 lead heading into the second leg.
Match Result: Germany (5/6 with Betfair)
Germany are unbeaten in nine games at home, with Netherlands, Bosnia and Hungary all falling to the German National side in recent times. This record stretches back to November 2023 when Germany were beaten 3-2 by Turkey.
Jamal Musiala 1+ Assists (4/1 with bet365)
Jamal Musiala has emerged as one of the most important players in the German side, providing two goals and three assists in five Nations League games this season.
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Germany vs Italy Odds
| Germany vs Italy | All odds with BetMGM | ||
| Win-Draw-Win Market | Home Win | Draw | Away win |
| Match Odds | 7/10 | 11/4 | 17/5 |
| Both Teams to Score | BTTS – Yes | – | BTTS – No |
| Match Odds | 10/13 | – | 10/11 |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 Goals | – | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Match Odds | 17/20 | – | 22/25 |
How both teams go into Germany vs Italy
France and Italy had already qualified for the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals before their encounter. The match was crucial for securing the top spot in the group. Italy entered the game in first place, but they lost that position to France. The four-time world champions finished the group stage level on points with France (13 points each) but had an inferior goal difference (+5 compared to France’s +6).
Germany, who were already guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals, dominated Group A3, finishing five points ahead of the others after concluding their campaign with a decisive 7-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina. They ended the League A group phase as the highest scorers with a total of 18 goals. However, despite their impressive international history, Germany has never advanced to the Nations League semi-finals. That could well change this time around with Germany holding a 2-1 advantage heading into the second leg.
Italy team news
Andrea Cambiaso is a doubt, despite being called up. Left-side specialists Destiny Udogie and Matteo Ruggeri should be in contention to replace the injured Federico Dimarco. Torino’s Cesare Casadei could earn his first senior cap. Since switching from Chelsea, he has been a regular in the Granata’s midfield. Manuel Locatelli of Juventus has been left out.
Germany team news
One notable absentee from Germany’s squad is Bayer Leverkusen playmaker Florian Wirtz, who is sidelined for several weeks after sustaining an ankle injury. Bayern Munich midfielder Aleksandar Pavlović could earn a recall after not being part of the last international break. Deniz Undav, who has scored in two of Germany’s last three away Nations League matches, also hopes to be involved.
Germany vs Italy head-to-head
This will be the 38th international meeting between Italy and Germany, with the Azzurri currently leading 15–10 in the head-to-head. However, Italy are winless in their previous six meetings (three draws and three losses).
| Germany vs Italy H2H | |||||||
| Date | Score | Competition | |||||
| 20 Mar 2025 | Italy 1-2 Germany | UEFA Nations League | |||||
| 14 Jun 2022 | Germany 5-2 Italy | UEFA Nations League | |||||
| 04 Jun 2022 | Italy 1-1 Germany | UEFA Nations League | |||||
| 15 Nov 2016 | Italy 0-0 Germany | International Friendly | |||||
| 02 Jul 2016 | Germany 1-1 Italy | UEFA European Championship | |||||
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