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Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction: Azzurri looking to break Kockasti curse

Italy go into their final Euro 2024 Group B game against Croatia knowing they cannot afford to lose.

Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction:

Croatia vs Italy latest prediction

As we turn to the final round of group stage fixtures at Euro 2024, there are still placed to be settled in Group B. Spain have wrapped up top spot after two games, with Italy currently in second.

The defending champions opened their Euro 2024 campaign with a 2-1 win over Albania, having to come from behind after conceding the fastest ever goal in European Championship history. But they were unable to build on that, beaten 1-0 by Spain in their next match.

It was a game that Italy could have lost by a lot more, which may have thrown their Euro 2024 hopes into doubt. In the end, a Riccardo Calafiori own goal did the damage, leaving Italy in second. Although they are in control of their destiny, knowing a point is enough, Italy haven’t been convincing. There is also the chance that they could fail to qualify in third, if they lose to Croatia and their goal difference takes a big enough hit.

Fortunately for Italy, Croatia don’t really look like winning games. The 2018 World Cup runners-up and 2022 World Cup third-placed team, Croatia haven’t really translated their success on a continental stage. At Euro 2020, Croatia were knocked out in the last 16 and now they’re on the brink of a group stage exit.

The Blazers sit bottom of Group B after two games, with just one point. They opened the group with a 3-0 defeat to Spain, a bit of a shock scoreline. They then went behind to Albania before looking to have comeback for a win. However, a late equaliser broke Croatian hearts, leaving them behind Albania on goal difference.

The showdown between Croatia and Italy takes place on 24th June at the Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.

Although Croatia are very high up for shots per game at Euro 2024, their efforts haven’t come from corners. Zlatko Dalic’s men have averaged just 1.5 corners per game at Euro 2024, with three in total. Only Czech Republic (zero) have a lower average.

But Italy aren’t much better themselves. The Azzurri have averaged 3.5 corners won per game at Euro 2024 so far. The two sides have also combined to concede an average of seven corners per game.

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Croatia latest team news

Zlatko Dalic made three changes between the team that lost to Spain and drew with Albania. Ivan Perisic started at left-back, with Josko Gvardiol moving central and Marin Pongracic dropping down to the bench. Josip Juranovic replaced Josip Stanisic at right-back, while Bruno Petkovic got the nod up front over Ante Budimir.

But Budimir came off the bench to record an assist against Albania, so may return to the starting XI here. The defence could well stay the same, though, after a much better defensive performance. Marcelo Brozovic and Lovro Majer were both taken off at half time against Albania and may fear for their hopes of starting if Dalic wants to make a statement.

Italy latest team news

Luciano Spalletti has named the same starting XI for both of Italy’s games at Euro 2024 so far and he may go for three in a row against Croatia. Bryan Cristante didn’t perform off the bench against Spain, meaning Jorginho’s spot in midfield alongside Nicolo Barella should be safe. Gianluca Scamacca did all he could with limited service, and there isn’t any reason to drop him.

Croatia vs Italy head-to-head

There are very few nations against which the Italians have struggled; Croatia is one of them. The first meeting in April 1942 saw Italy win 4-0. Since then, it’s been a combination of losses (three, notably at the World Cup 2002) and draws (five). Indeed, the last three meetings ended in 1-1 draws.

Croatia vs Italy H2H
Date Score Ground
12/06/2015 Croatia 1-1 Italy Gradski stadion u Poljudu
16/11/2014 Italy 1-1 Croatia San Siro
14/06/2012 Croatia 1-1 Italy Stadion Miejski
16/08/2006 Italy 0-2 Croatia Stadio Armando Picchi
08/06/2002 Croatia 2-1 Italy Kashima Soccer Stadium
28/04/1999 Croatia 0-0 Italy Stadion Maksimir

How to watch Croatia vs Italy live

This showdown will be live on the BBC, BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sports Website.

Every Euro 2024 game will be shown live on either BBC or ITV, with the two platforms sharing the broadcast rights.