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Bournemouth vs Arsenal prediction and stats: 4/5 and 12/1 tips from the South Coast

Bournemouth vs Arsenal prediction and stats: Will Gunners keep up winning run?

Arsenal will look to keep up their unbeaten run when they travel to Bournemouth after the international break. 

Two Bournemouth vs Arsenal predictions

Bournemouth Under 19.5 throw ins, Arsenal Over 14.5 throw ins, Saka Over 0.5 shots (4/5 with bet365)

For this Saturday evening’s kickoff, I have been drawn in by these throw-in lines, which hold some nice value and make a good-looking bet builder. 

Bournemouth’s throws are pretty good overall, averaging the fourth-highest in the league with 18.14 per game. Including a cup game against West Ham, their average falls to 17.8 for the season with them registering sixteen throws. They still fail to clear this line in all eight games they’ve played this season, so I am siding with the under here. 

Arsenal’s opposition doesn’t often pick up huge throw numbers either. Only Man City and Spurs managed to go over this line in the League, and Man City were against ten men for the majority. Across the whole of last season, Arsenal’s opposition only averaged 14.8 throws per game, with Bournemouth registering fourteen and seventeen in the two head-to-heads. 

Arsenal’s throw average in the Premier League this season is 14.4 per game, but this is heavily skewed when they played with ten men against Man City, only registering five in the entire match. They’ve also faced all three teams who conceded the least from last season (Man City, Brighton, and Villa) in their seven games this season, bringing their average down.   

When you look into Bournemouth’s data, you notice their opposition has had way more throws than anyone else in the league. They have given up 159 throws in just seven matches, an incredible 22.7 per game. The lowest their opposition has made this season is nineteen, with even West Ham making an insane twenty-four, which would jump that average even higher.  

Backing Saka for one shot makes this bet a backable price and looks solid, given his impressive shot records. He went off injured in England’s game against Greece but should be fine to start on Saturday evening. He’s now registered a shot in thirteen of his last fourteen starts, only failing in that game against City in that stretch. Saka arrives here from back-to-back seven-shot games against Southampton and Leicester, where Arsenal pummelled the goal for most of the match. 

First half result: Arsenal, and Bournemouth most shots and most corners in the match(12/1 with bet365)

It’s a double-figure longshot against a tough Arsenal side, but hear me out.  

Bournemouth have seen a huge increase in attacking output this season and currently rank third for shots taken, only bettered by Man City and Spurs. They have averaged a juicy 16.57 shots in that period, which trumps Arsenal’s 16.29. They also rank second for corners taken, funnily enough, just two behind Arsenal.  

Arsenal have lost the shot count and the corner count in six of their last nine matches. They have introduced a very risk-averse approach when leading in matches. If they take the lead in the first half, I wouldn’t be surprised if they take the foot off the gas a little and look to control the game more than fire-off shots.  

If they were to go behind early, especially with a home crowd cheering them on, this longshot could go mightily close.  

 

How both teams go into Bournemouth vs Arsenal

After a decent start, Bournemouth have hit a bit of a sticky patch, winning just one of their last four Premier League matches. That said, two of them came against Chelsea and Liverpool, after which they beat Southampton 3-1 at home. However, Andoni Iraola will be disappointed with his side’s 1-0 loss to Leicester last time out.

Up next is an Arsenal side in red-hot form. The Gunners are unbeaten in 10 across all competitions this season, while they haven’t lost any of their last 16 competitive matches since Bayern Munich beat them 1-0 in the Champions League back in April. Mikel Arteta’s men are just one point adrift of leaders Liverpool and will fancy their chances of taking another important victory here.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal team news

Bournemouth team news

Tyler Adams is Bournemouth’s only doubt for the game, but is back in training and available for selection.

Arsenal team news

Arteta will hope to have Jurrien Timber, Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko back in action for this match, although it may come a little too soon for Martin Odegaard and Kieran Tierney.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal head-to-head

As mentioned, Arsenal have comfortably won their last four Premier League matches against Bournemouth. In fact, the Gunners are unbeaten in their last nine against the Cherries across all competitions. Bournemouth’s last win in this fixture came back in January 2018, when goals from Callum Wilson and Jordan Ibe sealed a 2-1 victory.

How to watch Bournemouth vs Arsenal live

Bournemouth vs Arsenal is scheduled for 5:30pm (UK time) on Saturday, 19th October, and will be broadcast live in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.

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