There can be no doubt that Blackburn face an uphill task if they want to be the team on top of the Championship going into the World Cup break. Burnley have lost only twice all season, though their propensity to draw matches leaves them only two points ahead of their fierce local rivals going into this one.
Burnley have perhaps been less convincing than usual of late, having to snatch matches late on in injury time on numerous occasions until the second-half capitulation at Bramall Lane. No doubt the Rovers’ coaching staff will have been working hard on their attacking set-pieces, having seen the trouble Sheffield United caused the Burnley defence with them last week.
However, notwithstanding the likely ferocity of the opening to this match, the pattern is likely to settle into Burnley possession with Blackburn attempting to hit on the break. In the majority of these types of matches this season, Burnley have been able to successfully control play and emerge with something. In the vast majority of away matches, Blackburn have struggled to threaten the opposition, as well, sitting 22nd in xG generated in away matches in the Championship this season.
In addition, seven of the last eight East Lancs derbies have ended with fewer than three goals being scored. It is a trend that has quite strong evidence behind it despite Burnley’s recent matches being fairly high-scoring.
Considering the aforementioned feisty nature of the match, it is worth a look into the card markets. There are some tasty prices to be had for some individuals that are likely to play key roles. Lewis Travis is more often than not Rovers’ antagonist-in-chief and the 3/1 price that Bet UK and Unibet are providing for the Rovers skipper is tempting. Jack Cork, Burnley’s midfield general, is best price 7/2 and Ben Brereton Diaz, whose antagonistic tendencies are perhaps hidden from the public by his goalscoring antics, is also a generous 7/2 with BetVictor.
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Burnley vs Blackburn match stats
Burnley sit top of the Championship for goals scored. However they are also top of the standings for overperformance of their xG data. This means that they have scored more goals than you would expect from the chances they have created.
Blackburn have continued to be heavily reliant on Ben Brereton Diaz for their goals. The Stoke-born Chilean international has scored 37.5% of Rovers’ goals this season, this is consistent with his 39% total goal contribution to the 21/22 season. Sam Gallagher is likely to be back in the team for this match but his goal contribution is far below Brereton’s.
Blackburn haven’t tasted victory in the East Lancashire derby since their Premier League days in 2010. At that stage Blackburn hadn’t lost a derby since 1979, but Burnley have now won the last four consecutive to edge them ahead in the overall head-to-head 42 wins to 41.