New England Patriots vs Houston Texans: Predictions, betting trends and stats for Week 5

By Squawka NFL

Published: 20:31, 6 October 2021

The Houston Texans (1-3) have an expected difficult fight to end their three-game losing streak as they are 8.5-point underdogs against the New England Patriots (1-3) on Sunday, October 10, 2021 at NRG Stadium. This matchup has an over/under of 39.5 points.

Patriots vs Texans predictions

Computer predictions for Patriots vs Texans
ATS Total Score prediction
Texans (+8.5) Over (39.5) Texans 23 Patriots 18

Last 3 results

Patriots Recent Betting Insights

  • New England has covered the spread twice, and is 1-2 overall, in its past three contests.
  • New England’s past three games have not gone over the total.
  • The Patriots and their opponents have combined to score an average of 45.2 points over their last three games, 5.7 more than the 39.5 over/under in this matchup.

Texans recent betting insights

  • Houston has one win against the spread, and is 0-3 overall, over its past three contests.
  • In Houston’s past three contests, it has hit the over once.
  • The Texans have averaged a total of 46.8 combined points in their last three games, 7.3 greater than this matchup’s over/under of 39.5.

Patriots vs Texans head-to-head

New England has a 3-2 advantage over Houston in the past five matchups between these two teams. The Texans have a 1-0 record against the spread in those games against the Patriots, with the two squads not eclipsing the total once. New England outscored Houston 139-124 in those five head-to-head matchups.

Patriots vs Texans betting odds

Patriots vs Texans Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite spread odds Underdog spread odds Total Over total odds Under total odds
Patriots -8.5 -110 -110 39.5 -110 -110

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Patriots vs Texans betting insights

Patriots trends

  • New England has covered the spread two times this season (2-2-0).
  • Games involving New England have yet to hit the over once this season.
  • This year, the Patriots score 11.2 fewer points per game (17.8) than the Texans surrender (29.0).
  • The Patriots average 311.8 yards per game, 90.0 fewer yards than the 401.8 the Texans give up per contest.

Texans trends

  • Houston has covered the spread in a game two times this season (2-2-0).
  • The Texans are 1-1 ATS when playing as at least 8.5-point underdogs.
  • Houston’s games have gone over the total twice this year.
  • The Texans score 16.8 points per game, comparable to the 17.5 the Patriots surrender.
  • Houston is 2-0 against the spread and 1-1 overall in games when it records more than 17.5 points.
  • The Texans collect 43.5 fewer yards per game (263.3) than the Patriots give up (306.8).

Team stats

Compare 2021 season stats for Patriots and Texans
Patriots Stats Texans
264.3 Pass yards 193.3
202.3 Pass yards against 276.3
68.5 Rush yards 83.0
121.8 Rush yards against 137.0
-2 Turnover differential -1

How to live stream Patriots vs Texans online

Bet365* are streaming a selection of games during the NFL 2021 season live for account holders. Those interested in watching NFL games live online can take advantage of this service by following the simple steps below.

  • Click on this link.
  • ‘Register’ and enter details.
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  • Navigate to the ‘Live’ option at the top of the homepage and select your desired event with a play symbol next to it.

*Geo restrictions apply, 18+ only, must have a funded account or placed a bet in the last 24 hours, BeGambleAware. All odds and offers within this article are accurate at the time of publication.

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Player betting tips

Patriots top players

  • Mac Jones has 1,012 passing yards (253.0 per game) and a 70% completion percentage (112-for-160) while tossing four touchdowns and four interceptions.
  • In three of four games this year, Jones has thrown a touchdown pass, and he has one game with multiple TD passes.
  • Damien Harris has run for a team-leading 172 yards (43.0 YPG) and one touchdown.
  • Harris has one rushing touchdown this year in four games played.
  • Jakobi Meyers has 27 catches (41 targets) and paces his team with 246 receiving yards (61.5 ypg).
  • Meyers has had no receiving touchdowns in four games this season.

Texans top players

  • Davis Mills has 357 passing yards (89.3 per game) with a 56.7% completion percentage (38-for-67), throwing for two touchdowns with five interceptions.
  • Mark Ingram II has 52 carries for a team-high 171 rushing yards (42.8 per game) and one touchdown.
  • David Johnson has run for 67 yards on 16 carries (16.8 yards per game). Johnson also makes a big impact in the passing game, catching eight passes for a team-high 67 (16.8 per game) while scoring one touchdown.
  • This year Brandin Cooks has 28 receptions and leads the team with 369 yards (92.3 per game) while hauling in one touchdown.
  • Pharaoh Brown’s stat line this year reveals five catches for 73 yards. He averages 18.3 receiving yards per game.


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