NFL PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons: Predictions, betting trends and stats for Week 11

By Squawka NFL

Published: 10:11, 18 November 2021

The New England Patriots (6-4) are expected to keep their four-game winning streak alive as they are favored by a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) on Thursday, November 18, 2021 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The contest has a point total of 47.5.

Patriots vs Falcons predictions

Squawka predictions for Patriots vs Falcons
ATS Total Score prediction
Patriots (-7) Under (47.5) Patriots 29 Falcons 18

Last three results

Patriots recent betting insights

  • Over its last three games, New England has covered the spread each time, and is 3-0 overall.
  • In its past three games, New England has gone over the total twice.
  • The Patriots and their opponents have combined to score an average of 45.7 points over their last three games, 1.8 less than the 47.5 over/under in this matchup.

Falcons recent betting insights

  • Atlanta has covered the spread once, and is 1-2 overall, over its last three contests.
  • Atlanta has gone over the total once in its past three contests.
  • The Falcons total over the last three games is 1.0 points greater than the 47.5 total given for this matchup.

Patriots vs Falcons head-to-head

In the last five matchups between these two teams, New England has a 5-0 advantage over Atlanta. New England scored 144 points in those five matchups compared to Atlanta’s 96.

Patriots vs Falcons betting odds

Patriots vs Falcons betting information
Favorite Spread Favorite spread odds Underdog spread odds Total Over total odds Under total odds
Patriots -7 -105 -115 47.5 -105 -115

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Patriots vs Falcons betting insights

Patriots trends

  • New England has put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread this season.
  • In games they have played as 7-point favorites or more, the Patriots have an ATS record of 1-1.
  • This season, five of New England’s games have gone over the point total.
  • The Patriots score 27.5 points per game, comparable to the 29.2 per contest the Falcons give up.
  • New England is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall this season when the team puts up more than 29.2 points.
  • The Patriots rack up 356.2 yards per game, only 12.1 fewer than the 368.3 the Falcons allow per outing.
  • In games that New England totals more than 368.3 yards, the team is 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall.

Falcons trends

  • Atlanta is 3-6-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Falcons are winless against the spread when they are 7-point underdogs or more (0-2).
  • This year, Atlanta’s games have hit the over five times.
  • The Falcons average 19.8 points per game, comparable to the 17.7 the Patriots surrender.
  • When Atlanta records more than 17.7 points, it is 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 overall.
  • The Falcons rack up just 3.8 fewer yards per game (324.2) than the Patriots give up per matchup (328.0).
  • Atlanta is 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 overall when the team churns out more than 328.0 yards.

Team stats

Compare 2021 season stats for Patriots and Falcons
Patriots Stats Falcons
256.7 Pass yards 254.2
236.8 Pass yards against 256.3
114.5 Rush yards 82.9
107.9 Rush yards against 122.1
+3 Turnover differential -5

 

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Player betting tips

Patriots top players

  • Mac Jones has 2,333 passing yards (233.3 per game) and a 69% completion percentage (223-for-323), flinging 13 touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
  • In eight of 10 games this season, Jones has thrown a touchdown pass, and four of those games included multiple TD passes.
  • Damien Harris has taken 133 attempts for a team-leading 547 rushing yards (54.7 per game) and seven touchdowns.
  • Harris has had a rushing touchdown in six of 10 games this season, including multiple rushing TDs once.
  • Kendrick Bourne has 33 catches (43 targets) and paces his team with 520 receiving yards (52.0 ypg) and three touchdowns.
  • Bourne has had a receiving touchdown in three of 10 games this season, but no games with multiple receiving TDs.
Select player props for the New England Patriots
Name Pass Yds Pass TDs Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Yds Rec TDs
Mac Jones 273.5 (-115) 6.5 (-118)
Damien Harris 52.5 (-117) 5.5 (-126)
Kendrick Bourne 1.5 (-126) 41.5 (-120)

Falcons top players

  • Matt Ryan has 2,274 passing yards (252.7 per game) with a 67.7% completion percentage (218-for-322), throwing for 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has rushed for a team-leading 303 yards on 77 attempts (33.7 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns. He also averages 52.6 receiving yards per game, grabbing 39 passes for a team-high 473 yards and five touchdowns.
  • Mike Davis has 289 yards on 88 carries (32.1 yards per game), with one rushing touchdown.
  • Kyle Pitts has 40 catches (64 targets) and paces his team with 606 receiving yards (67.3 per game) while scoring one touchdown.
  • Olamide Zaccheaus has totaled 194 yards on 15 receptions with three touchdowns, averaging 21.6 yards per game.
Select player props for the Atlanta Falcons
Name Pass Yds Pass TDs Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Yds Rec TDs
Matt Ryan 246.5 (-116) 4.5 (-129)
Cordarrelle Patterson 42.5 (-115) 44.5 (-111)
Kyle Pitts 62.5 (-112)

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