American Football

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: Predictions, betting trends and stats for Week 1

By Squawka NFL

Published: 15:03, 9 September 2021 | Updated: 15:16, 23 September 2021

Oddsmakers project a close game between AFC East foes when the New England Patriots (0-0) host the Miami Dolphins (0-0) on Sunday, September 12, 2021 at Gillette Stadium. Miami is a 2.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 44.

Patriots vs Dolphins predictions

Computer predictions for Patriots vs Dolphins
ATS Total Score prediction
Dolphins (+2.5) Over (44) Dolphins 23 Patriots 21

Patriots vs Dolphins head-to-head

Miami holds a 3-2 advantage over New England in the past five matchups between these two teams. The Patriots and Dolphins are split 1-1 against the spread in those games while not going over the total. New England outscored Miami 133-94 in those five head-to-head matchups.

Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds

Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite spread odds Underdog spread odds Total Over total odds Under total odds
Patriots -2.5 -115 -105 44 -115 -105

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Patriots vs Dolphins betting insights

Patriots trends

  • New England covered the spread seven times in 16 games last season.
  • Against the spread, as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Patriots went 3-4 last year.
  • In 16 New England games last season, five of them went over the total.
  • The Patriots scored 20.4 points per game last season, comparable to the 21.1 per matchup the Dolphins allowed.
  • When New England put up more than 21.1 points last season, it was 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 overall.
  • The Patriots collected 40.6 fewer yards per game (327.3) than the Dolphins gave up per outing (367.9) last year.
  • In games that New England piled up over 367.9 yards last season, the team was 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 overall.

Dolphins trends

  • Miami had 11 wins in 16 games against the spread last year.
  • As 2.5-point underdogs or more, the Dolphins went 6-2 against the spread last season.
  • There were seven Miami games (out of 16) that went over the total last season.
  • Last year the Dolphins put up 3.2 more points per game (25.3) than the Patriots allowed (22.1).
  • When Miami put up over 22.1 points last year, it was 8-3 against the spread and 7-4 overall.
  • The Dolphins collected 339 yards per game last season, only 14.8 fewer than the 353.8 the Patriots allowed per matchup.
  • When Miami churned out over 353.8 yards last season, the team was 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 overall.

Team stats

Compare 2020 season stats for Patriots and Dolphins
Patriots Stats Dolphins
195.3 Pass yards 246.1
232.6 Pass yards against 273.3
146.6 Rush yards 105.5
131.4 Rush yards against 116.4
+3 Turnover differential +9

Player betting tips

Patriots top players

  • Kyle Van Noy showed out with an impressive stat line of six sacks, 12 TFL and 92 tackles last year.
  • In last year’s campaign, Adrian Phillips collected 142 tackles, 7.5 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions.
  • J.C. Jackson picked off nine passes and tacked on 46 tackles, one TFL, and 14 passes defended last season.

Dolphins top players

  • Last year Tua Tagovailoa collected 1,814 passing yards (113.4 yards per game) while going 186-for-290 (64.1% completion percentage) and throwing 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.
  • Myles Gaskin rushed for 584 yards on 142 attempts (48.7 yards per game) while scoring three touchdowns a season ago. He also averaged 32.3 receiving yards per game, grabbing 41 passes for 388 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Last season Malcolm Brown ran for 419 yards on 101 carries (26.2 ypg), with five rushing touchdowns.
  • DeVante Parker hauled in 63 passes for 793 yards last season with four touchdowns. He was targeted 103 times, and averaged 49.6 yards per game.
  • Mike Gesicki also tacked on 53 catches for 703 yards and six touchdowns last year. He was targeted 85 times and put up 43.9 receiving yards per game.
  • Last season Emmanuel Ogbah collected nine sacks, 10.5 TFL and 59 tackles.
  • Jerome Baker’s 2020 campaign saw him total 154 tackles, eight TFL, and seven sacks.
  • Xavien Howard intercepted 10 passes and tacked on 62 tackles, one TFL, and 20 passes defended last season.


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