Oddsmakers project a close game between AFC East foes when the New England Patriots (0-0) host the Miami Dolphins (0-0) on Sunday, September 12, 2021 at Gillette Stadium. Miami is a 2.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 44.
Patriots vs Dolphins predictions
|Dolphins (+2.5)||Over (44)||Dolphins 23 Patriots 21|
Patriots vs Dolphins head-to-head
Miami holds a 3-2 advantage over New England in the past five matchups between these two teams. The Patriots and Dolphins are split 1-1 against the spread in those games while not going over the total. New England outscored Miami 133-94 in those five head-to-head matchups.
Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds
|Favorite||Spread||Favorite spread odds||Underdog spread odds||Total||Over total odds||Under total odds|
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Patriots vs Dolphins betting insights
- New England covered the spread seven times in 16 games last season.
- Against the spread, as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Patriots went 3-4 last year.
- In 16 New England games last season, five of them went over the total.
- The Patriots scored 20.4 points per game last season, comparable to the 21.1 per matchup the Dolphins allowed.
- When New England put up more than 21.1 points last season, it was 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 overall.
- The Patriots collected 40.6 fewer yards per game (327.3) than the Dolphins gave up per outing (367.9) last year.
- In games that New England piled up over 367.9 yards last season, the team was 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 overall.
- Miami had 11 wins in 16 games against the spread last year.
- As 2.5-point underdogs or more, the Dolphins went 6-2 against the spread last season.
- There were seven Miami games (out of 16) that went over the total last season.
- Last year the Dolphins put up 3.2 more points per game (25.3) than the Patriots allowed (22.1).
- When Miami put up over 22.1 points last year, it was 8-3 against the spread and 7-4 overall.
- The Dolphins collected 339 yards per game last season, only 14.8 fewer than the 353.8 the Patriots allowed per matchup.
- When Miami churned out over 353.8 yards last season, the team was 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 overall.
|232.6||Pass yards against||273.3|
|131.4||Rush yards against||116.4|
Player betting tips
Patriots top players
- Kyle Van Noy showed out with an impressive stat line of six sacks, 12 TFL and 92 tackles last year.
- In last year’s campaign, Adrian Phillips collected 142 tackles, 7.5 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions.
- J.C. Jackson picked off nine passes and tacked on 46 tackles, one TFL, and 14 passes defended last season.
Dolphins top players
- Last year Tua Tagovailoa collected 1,814 passing yards (113.4 yards per game) while going 186-for-290 (64.1% completion percentage) and throwing 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.
- Myles Gaskin rushed for 584 yards on 142 attempts (48.7 yards per game) while scoring three touchdowns a season ago. He also averaged 32.3 receiving yards per game, grabbing 41 passes for 388 yards and two touchdowns.
- Last season Malcolm Brown ran for 419 yards on 101 carries (26.2 ypg), with five rushing touchdowns.
- DeVante Parker hauled in 63 passes for 793 yards last season with four touchdowns. He was targeted 103 times, and averaged 49.6 yards per game.
- Mike Gesicki also tacked on 53 catches for 703 yards and six touchdowns last year. He was targeted 85 times and put up 43.9 receiving yards per game.
- Last season Emmanuel Ogbah collected nine sacks, 10.5 TFL and 59 tackles.
- Jerome Baker’s 2020 campaign saw him total 154 tackles, eight TFL, and seven sacks.
- Xavien Howard intercepted 10 passes and tacked on 62 tackles, one TFL, and 20 passes defended last season.
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