Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills: Predictions, betting trends and stats for Week 5

By Squawka NFL

Published: 21:06, 6 October 2021

The Buffalo Bills (3-1) are an underdog by 3.5 points as they try to keep their three-game winning streak going in a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) on Sunday, October 10, 2021 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Chiefs vs Bills predictions

Computer predictions for Chiefs vs Bills
ATS Score prediction
Bills (+3.5) Bills 28 Chiefs 27

Last 3 results

Chiefs Recent Betting Insights

  • Over its past three games, Kansas City has one win against the spread, and is 1-2 overall.
  • Kansas City has gone over the total twice in its past three games.

Bills recent betting insights

  • Buffalo has covered the spread in its last three games, and went 3-0 overall.
  • In its past three games, Buffalo has hit the over once.

Chiefs vs Bills head-to-head

In the past five matchups between these two teams, Kansas City has a 4-1 advantage over Buffalo. The Chiefs are 2-0 against the spread in those games against the Bills while the two teams have gone over the total on one occasion. Kansas City has had the scoring advantage in those five matchups, totaling 121 points while Buffalo scored 92.

Chiefs vs Bills betting odds

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite spread odds Underdog spread odds Total Over total odds Under total odds
Chiefs -3.5 -110 -110 N/A N/A N/A

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Chiefs vs Bills betting insights

Chiefs trends

  • Kansas City has gone 1-3-0 against the spread this season.
  • In games they have played as 3.5-point favorites or more, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 1-3.
  • This season, Kansas City’s games have hit the over three times.
  • The Chiefs rack up 22.5 more points per game (33.5) than the Bills give up (11.0).
  • When Kansas City puts up more than 11.0 points, it is 1-3 against the spread and 2-2 overall.
  • The Chiefs collect 427.5 yards per game, 210.7 more yards than the 216.8 the Bills give up per outing.
  • When Kansas City picks up more than 216.8 yards, the team is 1-3 against the spread and 2-2 overall.

Bills trends

  • Buffalo is 3-1-0 against the spread this year.
  • Buffalo’s games have gone over the total once this year.
  • The Bills score the same number of points per game that the Chiefs surrender (31.3).
  • Buffalo is 3-0 against the spread and 3-0 overall in games when it records more than 31.3 points.
  • The Bills collect 33.8 fewer yards per game (404.0) than the Chiefs give up (437.8).
  • When Buffalo piles up more than 437.8 yards, the team is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall.

Team stats

Compare 2021 season stats for Chiefs and Bills
Chiefs Stats Bills
304.5 Pass yards 266.0
307.0 Pass yards against 167.3
130.3 Rush yards 145.3
146.0 Rush yards against 68.0
-3 Turnover differential +7

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Player betting tips

Chiefs top players

  • Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for 1,218 yards (102-for-141), with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions (304.5 YPG). He’s also run the ball 15 times for a team-high 92 yards and one touchdown, averaging 23.0 yards per game.
  • Mahomes has had a passing touchdown in all four games this year, and multiple passing TDs each time.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has churned out a team-high 291 rushing yards (72.8 YPG).
  • In four games this season, Edwards-Helaire has not yet rushed for a touchdown.
  • Tyreek Hill has 30 receptions for a team-high 453 yards (113.3 per game) and four touchdowns.
  • Hill has caught a touchdown pass twice this year, out of four games played, and had multiple TD receptions once.

Bills top players

  • Josh Allen has 1,055 passing yards (263.8 per game) with a 63.5% completion percentage (99-for-156), throwing for nine touchdowns with two interceptions. He also has 129 rushing yards on 24 carries and one touchdown.
  • Devin Singletary has churned out a team-high 259 rushing yards (64.8 per game) and scored one touchdown.
  • Zack Moss has 147 yards on 35 carries (36.8 yards per game), with three rushing touchdowns.
  • This year Stefon Diggs has 26 receptions and leads the team with 305 yards (76.3 per game) while scoring one touchdown.
  • Emmanuel Sanders’ stat line this year reveals 16 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He puts up 67.0 receiving yards per game.
  • Cole Beasley is averaging 52.5 yards per game, with 25 catches for 210 yards.


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