Squawka NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots: Predictions, betting trends and stats for Week 4

By Squawka NFL

Published: 19:11, 30 September 2021

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) are 7-point favourites heading into their matchup on Sunday, October 3, 2021 against the New England Patriots (1-2). The point total is set at 49.

Buccaneers vs Patriots predictions

Computer predictions for Buccaneers vs Patriots
ATS Total Score prediction
Patriots (+7) Over (49) Buccaneers 28 Patriots 21

Buccaneers vs Patriots head-to-head

New England holds an edge against Tampa Bay in the last five meetings between these two squads, collecting a 4-1 record in those games. New England has had the scoring advantage in those five matchups, totaling 121 points while Tampa Bay scored 45.

Buccaneers vs Patriots betting odds

Buccaneers vs Patriots betting information
Favourite Spread Favourite spread odds Underdog spread odds Total Over total odds Under total odds
Buccaneers -7 -105 -115 49 -110 -110

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Buccaneers vs Patriots betting insights

Buccaneers trends

  • Tampa Bay has covered the spread one time this season (1-2-0).
  • The Buccaneers are 1-1 ATS when playing as at least 7-point favourites.
  • All of Tampa Bay’s games have gone over the total this season.
  • This year, the Buccaneers average 17.3 more points per game (34.3) than the Patriots allow (17.0).
  • Tampa Bay is 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 overall this season when the team scores more than 17.0 points.
  • The Buccaneers rack up 406.0 yards per game, 123.7 more yards than the 282.3 the Patriots give up per outing.
  • Tampa Bay is 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 overall when the team amasses more than 282.3 yards.

Patriots trends

  • New England has covered the spread once in three games with a set spread.
  • This season, New England’s games have yet to hit the over once.
  • The Patriots average 18.0 points per game, 11.3 fewer than the Buccaneers give up (29.3).
  • The Patriots average 84.3 fewer yards per game (317.7) than the Buccaneers give up per contest (402.0).

Team stats

Compare 2021 season stats for Buccaneers and Patriots
Buccaneers Stats Patriots
362.3 Pass yards 245.7
348.7 Pass yards against 180.0
56.3 Rush yards 91.7
63.7 Rush yards against 122.7
-1 Turnover differential 0

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Player betting tips

Buccaneers top players

  • Tom Brady has passed for 1,087 yards (97-for-141), with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions (362.3 YPG).
  • Brady has had a passing touchdown in all three games this year, with multiple passing TDs in two of them.
  • Leonard Fournette has 24 carries for a team-high 92 rushing yards (30.7 per game) and zero touchdowns. He also has 12 catches for 77 receiving yards (25.7 per game).
  • Fournette has had no rushing touchdowns in three games this year.
  • Chris Godwin has reeled in 19 passes for a team best 241 yards plus two touchdowns. He averages 80.3 receiving yards per game.
  • In two of three games this season, Godwin has had a receiving touchdown. But he’s had no games with multiple receiving TDs.
Select player props for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Name Pass Yds Pass TDs Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Yds Rec TDs
Tom Brady 297.5 (-114) 2.5 (+128)
Leonard Fournette 42.5 (-114)
Chris Godwin 67.5 (-114)

Patriots top players

  • Mac Jones has 737 passing yards (245.7 per game) with a 67.5% completion percentage (81-for-120), throwing for two touchdowns with three interceptions.
  • Damien Harris has rushed for a team-leading 176 yards on 45 carries (58.7 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown.
  • So far this year James White has rushed for 38 yards on 10 carries (12.7 yards per game), with one touchdown. White also figures in the passing game, catching 12 passes for 94 (31.3 yards per game).
  • Jakobi Meyers has racked up 19 receptions for 176 yards, best on his team. He averages 58.7 receiving yards per game.
  • Kendrick Bourne has contributed with nine receptions (on 14 targets) for 123 yards and one touchdown.
  • Nelson Agholor has racked up 110 yards on 10 receptions with one touchdown, averaging 36.7 yards per game.
Select player props for the New England Patriots
Name Pass Yds Pass TDs Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Yds Rec TDs
Mac Jones 254.5 (-114) 1.5 (+112)
Damien Harris 49.5 (-114)
Jakobi Meyers 58.5 (-114)

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