{"id":9994,"date":"2026-09-10T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/?page_id=9994"},"modified":"2026-09-08T08:01:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T12:01:33","slug":"calder-trophy","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nhl\/awards-odds\/calder-trophy\/","title":{"rendered":"Calder Trophy odds 2027: the NHL rookie of the year market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Calder Trophy odds are the most readable award market in hockey and, on the evidence of the last decade, one of the worst places to back a favourite. Matthew Schaefer won the 2026 vote unanimously for the New York Islanders after opening at +1700. The 2026-27 board opened in July with Porter Martone of Philadelphia a shade ahead of Gavin McKenna, the first overall pick now in Toronto. This page carries the current prices, ten years of winners with the odds they opened at, the eligibility rules and the patterns worth betting on. Our awards hub<\/a> covers the other trophies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Detail<\/th>Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Award<\/strong><\/td>Best first-year player (rookie of the year)<\/td><\/tr>
Voted by<\/strong><\/td>Professional Hockey Writers Association, end of the regular season<\/td><\/tr>
2026 winner<\/strong><\/td>Matthew Schaefer (New York Islanders), unanimous<\/td><\/tr>
Market status<\/strong><\/td>Open. Pre-season prices posted<\/td><\/tr>
Favourite at 30 July 2026<\/strong><\/td>Porter Martone (Philadelphia), +275 at Bet99<\/td><\/tr>
Most winners by franchise<\/strong><\/td>Toronto Maple Leafs, 10<\/td><\/tr>
Last goaltender to win<\/strong><\/td>Steve Mason, 2009<\/td><\/tr>
Announced<\/strong><\/td>June, at the NHL Awards<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Calder Trophy odds 2026-27<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prices below are from Bet99, taken on 30 July 2026, and will have moved since. Rookie markets shift harder than any other futures board once training camps open and roles are confirmed, so treat these as the opening shape of the race rather than a live price. We will refresh the table through the season and date each update.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Player<\/th>Team<\/th>Odds<\/th>Why he is on the board<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Porter Martone<\/strong><\/td>Philadelphia Flyers<\/td>+275<\/td>Sixth pick in 2025; 10 points in 9 NHL games at the end of last season<\/td><\/tr>
Gavin McKenna<\/strong><\/td>Toronto Maple Leafs<\/td>+310<\/td>First overall pick in 2026 out of Penn State<\/td><\/tr>
Cole Hutson<\/strong><\/td>Washington Capitals<\/td>+675<\/td>Defenceman; younger brother of 2025 winner Lane Hutson<\/td><\/tr>
Ivar Stenberg<\/strong><\/td>San Jose Sharks<\/td>+700<\/td>Second overall pick in 2026, from Frolunda in Sweden<\/td><\/tr>
Anton Frondell<\/strong><\/td>Chicago Blackhawks<\/td>+875<\/td>Third pick in 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Ilya Protas<\/strong><\/td>Washington Capitals<\/td>+1200<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Roman Kantserov<\/strong><\/td>Chicago Blackhawks<\/td>+1500<\/td>Led the KHL in goals at 21 (36 in 63 games)<\/td><\/tr>
Jacob Fowler<\/strong><\/td>Montreal Canadiens<\/td>+2000<\/td>Goaltender<\/td><\/tr>
Konsta Helenius<\/strong><\/td>Buffalo Sabres<\/td>+2000<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
James Hagens<\/strong><\/td>Boston Bruins<\/td>+2500<\/td>Seventh pick in 2025<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Prices from Bet99, 30 July 2026. American odds; a +310 price returns $310 in profit on a $100 stake if it wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds movement: why the first overall pick is not the favourite<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

McKenna arrives with the loudest name on the board and opened second. Martone edged ahead because he has already played NHL games and scored in them, and because Philadelphia will give him a top-six role from opening night. That is the whole logic of this market in one line: voters reward production, production needs ice time, and a confirmed role is worth more than draft position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two other things stand out. Chicago has two live candidates in Frondell and Kantserov, and only one of them can take the first-line minutes. And Toronto, which has produced more Calder winners than any franchise, has not had one since Auston Matthews in 2017. McKenna would be the eleventh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ten years of Calder winners and the odds they opened at<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is the table that should shape how you bet the market. Opening prices are the pre-season numbers each winner was available at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Season<\/th>Winner<\/th>Team<\/th>Position<\/th>Opening odds<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2025-26<\/strong><\/td>Matthew Schaefer<\/td>New York Islanders<\/td>Defence<\/td>+1700<\/td><\/tr>
2024-25<\/strong><\/td>Lane Hutson<\/td>Montreal Canadiens<\/td>Defence<\/td>+600<\/td><\/tr>
2023-24<\/strong><\/td>Connor Bedard<\/td>Chicago Blackhawks<\/td>Centre<\/td>-135<\/td><\/tr>
2022-23<\/strong><\/td>Matty Beniers<\/td>Seattle Kraken<\/td>Centre<\/td>+400<\/td><\/tr>
2021-22<\/strong><\/td>Moritz Seider<\/td>Detroit Red Wings<\/td>Defence<\/td>+1200<\/td><\/tr>
2020-21<\/strong><\/td>Kirill Kaprizov<\/td>Minnesota Wild<\/td>Left wing<\/td>+400<\/td><\/tr>
2019-20<\/strong><\/td>Cale Makar<\/td>Colorado Avalanche<\/td>Defence<\/td>+400<\/td><\/tr>
2018-19<\/strong><\/td>Elias Pettersson<\/td>Vancouver Canucks<\/td>Centre<\/td>+240<\/td><\/tr>
2017-18<\/strong><\/td>Mathew Barzal<\/td>New York Islanders<\/td>Centre<\/td>+1800<\/td><\/tr>
2016-17<\/strong><\/td>Auston Matthews<\/td>Toronto Maple Leafs<\/td>Centre<\/td>-130<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Only two of the last ten winners opened as the favourite, and both were first overall picks walking into a guaranteed first-line job: Matthews at -130 and Bedard at -135. The other eight opened between +240 and +1800. Three of them, Schaefer, Barzal and Seider, were available at +1200 or longer in September. Backing the pre-season favourite at +275 has been the losing side of this market far more often than not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the voters reward<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rookie of the year rewards raw production more openly than any other NHL award. Team success barely registers: Bedard won on a Chicago side that finished near the bottom, and Hutson won in a Montreal season that ended in the first round. That makes the Calder easier to model than the Hart<\/a>, where voters weigh the standings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defencemen do better here than the scoring bias suggests. Four of the last seven winners were blueliners, because voters credit a young defenceman playing 22 minutes a night against top competition. Schaefer and Hutson back to back are not a coincidence, and Cole Hutson at +675 is priced with that in mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Goaltenders are the opposite case. Only 16 have ever won the award and none since Steve Mason in 2009, so a goaltender at +2000 is a much longer shot than the number suggests. Fowler needs a starting job and a top-ten save percentage just to be in the conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ice-time trap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The most common losing Calder bet is a gifted forward buried on the third line. Draft pedigree does not score; minutes do. Before backing a name in September, check three things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Where the club intends to play him.<\/strong> A top-six forward role or a top-four pairing is the floor for a realistic candidate. Pre-season line rushes and power-play units are the tell.<\/li>\n\n\n
  2. Whether the roster has room.<\/strong> Two rookies on one team split the minutes and the votes. Chicago in 2026-27 is the live example.<\/li>\n\n\n
  3. Whether he can be sent down.<\/strong> A junior-eligible player who starts slowly can be returned to his club team and the bet is dead by November. College and European players do not carry that risk in the same way.<\/li>\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Who is eligible for the Calder Trophy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Eligibility is stricter than most bettors assume. A player cannot have appeared in more than 25 NHL games in any single previous season, nor in six or more games in each of two previous seasons. He must also be under 26 on 15 September of the season in question. The age limit was added in 1990 after Sergei Makarov won at 31 following a long Soviet career. Age itself is not otherwise a factor, which is why Kantserov, a 22-year-old with three professional seasons in Russia, is a rookie in every sense the trophy recognizes. Martone’s nine games last spring keep him well inside the 25-game line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Calder Trophy records worth knowing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n