{"id":9038,"date":"2026-08-10T10:18:46","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T14:18:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/?page_id=9038"},"modified":"2026-08-10T10:18:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T14:18:46","slug":"mvp-odds","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL MVP odds 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NFL MVP odds are the biggest individual market in football betting, and the most rule-bound. The award goes to a quarterback, on a team near the top of the standings, with a story attached; it has worked that way for over a decade, and every price on the board below already assumes it. What the market gets wrong, year after year, is not who can win MVP but when the narrative arrives. The current board, the history and the timing edge are below. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL MVP odds 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Odds from DraftKings, an Ontario-licensed book, checked 9 August 2026; the implied chance is what the price claims before the book&#8217;s margin. Prices vary across books and platforms, and reprice weekly on camp news now and on every prime-time game once the season starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Player<\/th><th>Team<\/th><th>Odds<\/th><th>Implied chance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Josh Allen<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><td>+600<\/td><td>14.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lamar Jackson<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><td>+800<\/td><td>11.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Joe Burrow<\/td><td>Cincinnati Bengals<\/td><td>+850<\/td><td>10.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Patrick Mahomes<\/td><td>Kansas City Chiefs<\/td><td>+1000<\/td><td>9.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Justin Herbert<\/td><td>Los Angeles Chargers<\/td><td>+1000<\/td><td>9.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drake Maye<\/td><td>New England Patriots<\/td><td>+1000<\/td><td>9.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Caleb Williams<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><td>+1200<\/td><td>7.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dak Prescott<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><td>+1400<\/td><td>6.7%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two absences tell the story of this board. Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP, sits outside the top five at +1400, because the market prices repeat regression before it happens. And there is no defensive player and no running back anywhere near the top, because the electorate has made its position policy clear for a decade. This is a quarterback market with a quarterback price structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The rules the voters keep following<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rule one: quarterback. The winners table below is ten QBs deep, the last non-quarterback was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the last defender was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Rule two: team success. MVP voters do not reward brilliance on 8-9 teams; the award tracks the top of the standings, so a candidate&#8217;s price should always be read against how good the market thinks his team is. Rule three: narrative freshness. Voters like a new story, which is why repeat winners in consecutive years are rare and reigning MVPs drift long the following August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Allen at +600 satisfies rules one and two and fails rule three, which is the whole argument about this year&#8217;s board in one sentence. Jackson and Burrow both offer the fresher-story profile at longer prices; Maye at +1000 is the market&#8217;s candidate for the full narrative package, a young quarterback on last season&#8217;s Coach of the Year turnaround team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The favourites, case by case<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Josh Allen, Bills (+600).<\/strong> The best player on the board and the worst price. Allen won this award in 2024, and the history below shows how rarely the electorate returns to a recent winner; only Rodgers has gone back-to-back in the last decade, and Allen is not even the reigning holder. Buffalo is priced among the league&#8217;s best teams, so the seeding half of his case is fine. You are betting purely against narrative fatigue, and at +600 you are not being paid for that risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+800).<\/strong> Two MVPs already, but the fresher argument: three seasons have passed since his last one, which resets the fatigue clock, and the market rates Baltimore the best team in football, which makes the team-success rule a near-formality. If the Ravens are what the market says, Jackson is in the conversation by default. The cleanest fit of profile and price in the top tier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Joe Burrow, Bengals (+850).<\/strong> The stats have never been the question; the seeding has. The market finally prices Cincinnati as a genuine contender, and a Burrow season that matches his passing peaks on a division winner is a textbook MVP script. The risk is structural: his candidacy depends on a defence he does not play on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Drake Maye, Patriots (+1000).<\/strong> The narrative play. New England is the league&#8217;s darling story after the Vrabel turnaround, Maye is the young quarterback at the centre of it, and voters have shown they will reward exactly this arc when the wins keep coming. The catch: the story needs a second consecutive leap, and second leaps are harder than first ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ten years of MVP winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Season<\/th><th>Winner<\/th><th>Team<\/th><th>Position<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>Los Angeles Rams<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>Josh Allen<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2023<\/td><td>Lamar Jackson<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2022<\/td><td>Patrick Mahomes<\/td><td>Kansas City Chiefs<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2021<\/td><td>Aaron Rodgers<\/td><td>Green Bay Packers<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2020<\/td><td>Aaron Rodgers<\/td><td>Green Bay Packers<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2019<\/td><td>Lamar Jackson<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2018<\/td><td>Patrick Mahomes<\/td><td>Kansas City Chiefs<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2017<\/td><td>Tom Brady<\/td><td>New England Patriots<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2016<\/td><td>Matt Ryan<\/td><td>Atlanta Falcons<\/td><td>QB<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten seasons, ten quarterbacks, and only Aaron Rodgers going back-to-back. Note how many winners were not pre-season favourites: Stafford last season, Jackson in 2019, Ryan in 2016. The market knows the profile but keeps mispricing the person, which is exactly the gap a futures bettor wants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to bet NFL MVP<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pre-season, the discipline is price over probability: nobody at +600 is value in a market where the winner regularly starts at +2000 or longer, so hunt the second tier for quarterbacks on teams the market underrates. In-season, the market becomes a weekly overreaction machine, moving fifty points on a bad Sunday, and the edge flips to patience: buy the good candidate after his bad week, not the hot one after his great one. And always shop the price where your province allows. Award markets are thin, book-to-book spreads are wide, and the books in our <a href=\"\/ca\/bet\/betting-sites\/nfl\/\">NFL betting sites guide<\/a> regularly disagree on the same player by 200 points of odds. The rest of the award family, Coach and Rookie of the Year included, lives on our <a href=\"\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/awards\/\">NFL awards odds page<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One warning before any pre-season ticket: this award is decided in December. Early-season MVP leaders fade at a brutal rate, and the December schedule, prime-time slots included, decides who is holding the trophy narrative when ballots go in. Check the late-season schedule of any candidate you back in August. The voters will be watching those games, not the September ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NFL MVP odds FAQ<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp1\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Who is the favourite to win NFL MVP in 2026?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Josh Allen, at +600 with DraftKings at the time of writing, with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow next. Allen is also the 2024 winner, so the market is asking him to do something recent history resists: win it again within two years.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp2\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Who won NFL MVP last season?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Matthew Stafford of the Rams, narrowly, for the 2025 season. He sits well down the 2026 board, which is normal: reigning MVPs rarely repeat, and the market prices the regression before it happens.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp3\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Can a non-quarterback win NFL MVP?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">In theory. In practice the last non-quarterback to win was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the position column of the winners table is otherwise a wall of QBs. A non-QB needs a historic season and a weak quarterback field in the same year.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp4\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Has a defensive player ever won MVP?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Once in the modern era: Lawrence Taylor in 1986. No defender has come seriously close since, which is why defensive stars are bet on the Defensive Player of the Year board instead.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp5\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Can Canadians bet on NFL MVP?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Yes. The Ontario and Alberta books all carry the market and compete on price; the lottery platforms elsewhere carry thinner futures menus, so check whether yours lists the award markets before planning a bet.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp6\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">When is the NFL MVP announced?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">At NFL Honors during Super Bowl week in February. Voting covers the regular season only, so playoff heroics have never won anyone this award.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-canflmvp7\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Why do MVP odds move so much during the season?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Because the award is a weekly narrative referendum. A two-interception Sunday can move a candidate fifty points of odds, and a signature prime-time win can halve a price overnight. That volatility is also the opportunity: the market overreacts to single games, and patient bettors fade the overreaction.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>19+ (18+ in AB\/MB\/QC) | Please play responsibly | Odds shown at time of writing and subject to change; verify on your platform | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON); more resources on our <a href=\"\/ca\/gambling-awareness\/\">gambling awareness page<\/a>. Season-long context lives on our <a href=\"\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/\">NFL futures guide<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NFL MVP odds are the biggest individual market in football betting, and the most rule-bound. The award goes to a quarterback, on a team near the top of the standings, with a story attached; it has worked that way for over a decade, and every price on the board below already assumes it. What the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3589,"featured_media":9035,"parent":9036,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"nfl mvp odds","_yoast_wpseo_title":"NFL MVP Odds 2026: Favourites & Value in Canada | Squawka","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Current NFL MVP odds with implied chances, the three rules voters keep following, ten years of winners and where the value sits. 19+.","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-9038","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NFL MVP Odds 2026: Favourites &amp; Value in Canada | Squawka<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Current NFL MVP odds with implied chances, the three 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He sits well down the 2026 board, which is normal: reigning MVPs rarely repeat, and the market prices the regression before it happens.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.squawka.com\\\/ca\\\/nfl\\\/futures\\\/mvp-odds\\\/#faq-question-canflmvp3\",\"position\":3,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.squawka.com\\\/ca\\\/nfl\\\/futures\\\/mvp-odds\\\/#faq-question-canflmvp3\",\"name\":\"Can a non-quarterback win NFL MVP?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"In theory. In practice the last non-quarterback to win was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the position column of the winners table is otherwise a wall of QBs. 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No defender has come seriously close since, which is why defensive stars are bet on the Defensive Player of the Year board instead.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.squawka.com\\\/ca\\\/nfl\\\/futures\\\/mvp-odds\\\/#faq-question-canflmvp5\",\"position\":5,\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.squawka.com\\\/ca\\\/nfl\\\/futures\\\/mvp-odds\\\/#faq-question-canflmvp5\",\"name\":\"Can Canadians bet on NFL MVP?\",\"answerCount\":1,\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Yes. 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He sits well down the 2026 board, which is normal: reigning MVPs rarely repeat, and the market prices the regression before it happens.","inLanguage":"en-CA"},"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp3","position":3,"url":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp3","name":"Can a non-quarterback win NFL MVP?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"In theory. In practice the last non-quarterback to win was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the position column of the winners table is otherwise a wall of QBs. A non-QB needs a historic season and a weak quarterback field in the same year.","inLanguage":"en-CA"},"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp4","position":4,"url":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp4","name":"Has a defensive player ever won MVP?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Once in the modern era: Lawrence Taylor in 1986. No defender has come seriously close since, which is why defensive stars are bet on the Defensive Player of the Year board instead.","inLanguage":"en-CA"},"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp5","position":5,"url":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp5","name":"Can Canadians bet on NFL MVP?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes. The Ontario and Alberta books all carry the market and compete on price; the lottery platforms elsewhere carry thinner futures menus, so check whether yours lists the award markets before planning a bet.","inLanguage":"en-CA"},"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp6","position":6,"url":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/futures\/mvp-odds\/#faq-question-canflmvp6","name":"When is the NFL MVP announced?","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"At NFL Honors during Super Bowl week in February. 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