{"id":11244,"date":"2026-09-10T09:18:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T13:18:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/?page_id=11244"},"modified":"2026-09-16T11:54:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:54:53","slug":"playoff-predictions","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/nfl\/playoff-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Playoff Predictions 2026: Projected AFC and NFC Seeds"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2026 NFL season is one game old. Seattle beat New England 13-10 on Thursday night, and 30 teams have yet to play a snap. That is the honest starting point for any playoff projection published this week, and it is worth saying out loud before anyone reads a seeding table.<\/p>\n

So our NFL playoff predictions below do two jobs. They set out exactly how the 14-team playoff field is decided, which does not change from week to week, and they give our projected seven in each conference as of 10 September 2026. The structure is fact. The seeds are a call, and we will move them as results come in.<\/p>\n

How the NFL playoff field is decided<\/h2>\n

Fourteen teams reach the postseason, seven from each conference. The four division winners take seeds one through four, ordered by record. The three best remaining teams in the conference take seeds five, six and seven as wild cards, regardless of division.<\/p>\n

Two consequences of that structure drive most of the drama in December. A division winner is seeded above every wild card even when the wild card has a better record, so a 9-8 division champion hosts an 11-6 wild card. And only the number one seed gets a bye week, which makes the gap between first and second the most valuable single place in the bracket.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Seed<\/th>\nHow you get it<\/th>\nReward<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nBest record among division winners<\/td>\nFirst-round bye, home field throughout<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 to 4<\/strong><\/td>\nRemaining division winners by record<\/td>\nHome wild card game<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5 to 7<\/strong><\/td>\nBest three non-division-winners<\/td>\nRoad wild card game<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

When two teams finish level, the tiebreakers run in a fixed order. Head-to-head record comes first, then record within the division for divisional ties or within the conference for wild card ties, then record in common games, then strength of victory. Ties are broken far more often by head-to-head and divisional record than by anything further down that list, which is why a sweep of a division rival in October decides seeding in January.<\/p>\n

Where the 2026 race actually stands<\/h2>\n

One result is in. Seattle sit 1-0 and New England 0-1, and the remaining 15 Week 1 games run from Thursday through Monday night, with the bulk of the slate on Sunday 13 September.<\/p>\n

Records will not tell you much for a while. A 2-0 start is worth roughly a third of a win in projected final standing once you account for schedule, so the useful signals early are points differential, whether a team is winning close games or comfortable ones, and how the division around them is shaping up. Judging a playoff race on records alone before about Week 6 tends to reward whoever drew the softest opening month.<\/p>\n

Our week-by-week calls live on the NFL picks page<\/a>, and the season-long markets are on the NFL futures page<\/a>. If the seeding rules above are new to you, how the NFL works<\/a> covers the structure from the ground up and our NFL power rankings<\/a> show where the model rates all 32 teams right now.<\/p>\n

Our projected AFC playoff seven<\/h2>\n

Projection as of 10 September 2026, before the Week 1 Sunday slate. These are our editorial calls, not a model output.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Seed<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nRoute in<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nBaltimore Ravens<\/td>\nAFC North<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/strong><\/td>\nBuffalo Bills<\/td>\nAFC East<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/strong><\/td>\nKansas City Chiefs<\/td>\nAFC West<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/strong><\/td>\nHouston Texans<\/td>\nAFC South<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/strong><\/td>\nDenver Broncos<\/td>\nWild card<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/strong><\/td>\nLos Angeles Chargers<\/td>\nWild card<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/strong><\/td>\nCincinnati Bengals<\/td>\nWild card<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

The AFC West is the reason this projection is fragile. Putting Kansas City, Denver and the Chargers in the field means three of the seven places come out of one division, and the schedule will not allow all three to bank easy divisional wins. If any of those three slip, the most likely replacement is a second AFC North team, because that division splits its own games so evenly that a 10-win second place is normal there.<\/p>\n

Houston at four rather than higher reflects seeding rather than quality. The AFC South projects to produce the weakest division winner, and the four seed is what that usually earns.<\/p>\n

Our projected NFC playoff seven<\/h2>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Seed<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nRoute in<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nPhiladelphia Eagles<\/td>\nNFC East<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/strong><\/td>\nDetroit Lions<\/td>\nNFC North<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/strong><\/td>\nLos Angeles Rams<\/td>\nNFC West<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/strong><\/td>\nTampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td>\nNFC South<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/strong><\/td>\nGreen Bay Packers<\/td>\nWild card<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/strong><\/td>\nWashington Commanders<\/td>\nWild card<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/strong><\/td>\nSan Francisco 49ers<\/td>\nWild card<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

The NFC North is the tightest call on the page. Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota are close enough that the division could finish in any order, and we have two of the three in the field with Minnesota just outside. Green Bay open at Minnesota on Sunday, so that projection gets tested immediately.<\/p>\n

Seattle are the obvious omission after opening with a win. One home victory over New England does not move a projection much, and the NFC West still runs through Los Angeles and San Francisco on our reading. Ask again in a month.<\/p>\n

What would change these playoff predictions<\/h2>\n

Three things move a playoff picture faster than results do.<\/p>\n