{"id":4889,"date":"2026-07-05T01:31:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-05T05:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/news\/match-preview-mexico-vs-england-world-cup-2026-round-of-16\/"},"modified":"2026-07-05T01:32:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-05T05:32:59","slug":"match-preview-mexico-vs-england-world-cup-2026-round-of-16","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/ca\/news\/world-cup\/match-preview-mexico-vs-england-world-cup-2026-round-of-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Mexico vs England: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mexico host England in the round of 16 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Sunday, July 5, kicking off at 8:00 PM ET \/ 7:00 PM CT \/ 6:00 PM MT \/ 5:00 PM PT, with a place in the quarter-finals on the line and extra time and penalties waiting if the sides can't be separated.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Two teams have reached the last 16 by very different routes. Mexico have won all four of their matches without conceding once, feeding off the altitude and the noise at the Azteca. England have scored more freely but looked shakier at the back, and they arrive as the side the sportsbooks trust to go deepest at World Cup 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

bet365 make England the favourites at +150, with Mexico out to +200 and the draw priced at +210. England's squad is stacked with Premier League quality, but the venue and Mexico's clean-sheet run give the hosts plenty to hang their hopes on. You can see how the pair sit in the wider market on our World Cup 2026 outright betting odds<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n

Mexico vs England: Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n

A disciplined Mexico against England's heavier firepower reads like a tight, low-scoring knockout — the sort of night where the visitors' edge in quality is the most likely thing to decide it.<\/p>\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
England to Win<\/strong><\/td>\n+150 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(40.0%)<\/td>\n		⭐⭐⭐<\/td>\nOur model has England 62% to go through, and Harry Kane leads the more dangerous attack. The market sees them as the side likelier to reach the last eight, and we agree.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harry Kane<\/strong> to score anytime<\/td>\n+150 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(40.0%)<\/td>\n		⭐⭐⭐<\/td>\nFive goals from an xG of 3.27, plus nine shots on target — the sharpest striker left in the draw and the shortest price of any scorer on the night.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Under 2.5 Goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-188 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(65.3%)<\/td>\n		⭐⭐⭐<\/td>\nMexico have kept four clean sheets in a row, and knockout soccer only tightens the margins further. The numbers point to a cagey, low-scoring night.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: No<\/strong><\/td>\n-143 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(58.8%)<\/td>\n		⭐⭐<\/td>\nFour shutouts tell you all you need about Mexico's back line. One end staying quiet looks more likely than an open, end-to-end game.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: Mexico 0-1 England<\/strong><\/td>\n+600 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(14.3%)<\/td>\n		⭐⭐<\/td>\nThe natural shape of a narrow England win over a well-drilled Mexico, and one of the shorter scorelines on the board.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n

How we're playing it: England to win anchors the slate, Kane anytime adds a bigger price, and the Under plus a 1-0 scoreline sit in behind as supporting picks.<\/p>\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n

World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 16<\/h2>\n\n

Mexico topped their group with a perfect record and a shutout in every game, seeing off South Africa, Korea Republic and the Czech Republic before edging Ecuador 2-0 in the round of 32. It hasn't been eye-catching, but at the Azteca it has been ruthless and hard to break down.<\/p>\n\n

England had the tougher group, thumping Croatia 4-2, drawing with Ghana and beating Panama, then getting past Congo DR 2-1 in the last 32. On the numbers, England are the side more likely to reach the quarter-finals — though by a finer margin than the headline prices suggest.<\/p>\n\n

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