We’ve predicted how the Salah vs Kane Golden Boot run-in will unfold

We’ve predicted how the Salah vs Kane Golden Boot run-in will unfold

With Harry Kane being awarded Tottenham Hotspur‘s second goal against Stoke City by the Premier League, the Englishman’s tally for the season has moved to 25.

After Stoke had equalised against Tottenham at the Bet365 Stadium on Saturday, Christian Eriksen took a free-kick which found its way into the back of the net in the 63rd minute to restore the visitor’s one-goal advantage.

At the time, Kane claimed to have got a touch and continued to do so – even swearing on his daughter’s life that he touched the ball in a subsequent post on social media  – but the Goals Accreditation Panel awarded it to Eriksen after a brief review.

However, Tottenham would later launch a successful appeal against the decision and the Premier League have since announced Kane has been awarded the goal.

This puts him just four behind the league’s leading goalscorer Mohamed Salah who has scored 29 so far in his debut Premier League season with Liverpool.

Shortly following the announcement of Kane’s newly-awarded goal, Salah and some of his Liverpool team-mates posted on Twitter in bemusement of the decision – to aid Kane in the quest to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer.

But who will win the race for the Premier League’s Golden Boot? We’ve looked at the numbers to produce a bold prediction.

Predicted 90s have been calculated by applying the average minutes played per match to each player’s remaining number of fixtures.

1. Rate this season

Mohamed Salah

Goals per 90: 1.05

Shots per 90: 4.42

Conversion rate: 23.77%

Average minutes per game: 80.13

Predicted 90s remaining: 4.45

Predicted goals: 4.68

Predicted total: 33.68

At the start of the season, Salah received some criticism for his shooting ability as his shots had a tendency to be straight at opposing goalkeepers.

However, as the season has progressed so has Salah’s clinical nature in front of goal. Averaging 4.42 shots per 90, the Egyptian has a conversion rate of 23.77% so far meaning his scoring more than once every full game he plays.

Taking that in mind Salah looks on course to score another 4.68 goals in his remaining games.

Harry Kane

Goals per 90: 0.88

Shots per 90: 5.83

Conversion rate: 15.15%

Average minutes per game: 82.2

Predicted 90s remaining: 5.48

Predicted goals: 4.83

Predicted total: 29.83

Once again, Kane went through the entire month of August without scoring a goal despite averaging 8.00 shots per 90 in his first three games.

The Englishman now has an average of 5.83 shots per 90 – more than any other player in the Premier League this season – but a slightly lower conversion rate of 15.15%.

However, with one more game than Salah remaining, Kane is still predicted to score 4.83 goals before the season is up, taking his final tally just shy of 30.

2. Recent starts

Mohamed Salah

Goals in last five starts: 7

Goals per 90 in last five starts: 1.41

Predicted 90s remaining: 4.45

Predicted goals: 5.86

Predicted total: 34.86

While the Egyptian had impressed during his spell at Roma, Salah’s performances this season have come as a surprise to most.

After finding his feet once again in the Premier League, Salah has gone on to score 29 goals so far this season at a rate of 1.05 per 90 minutes.

But, based on his recent goalscoring form, and average playing time across his previous 31 appearances this season, the Egyptian would be on course to score the most goals ever in a Premier League season consisting of 38 games – and would potentially pip Alan Shearer and Andy Cole who both scored 34 in 42-game seasons.

Harry Kane

Goals in last five starts: 4

Goals per 90 in last five starts: 0.8

Predicted 90s remaining: 5.48

Predicted goals: 4.38

Predicted total: 29.38

Now back from injury and raring to go for the final stretch, Kane is on course to fall just short of the 30-goal mark – a milestone that has eluded him thus far.

Even by giving him the benefit of the doubt and ruling out his recent appearances from the bench, Kane needs a typical surge in ‘business end’ form to even come close to Salah.

3. Goals per Premier League game vs upcoming opponents

Mohamed Salah

vs Bournemouth: 1

vs West Bromwich Albion: 0

vs Stoke City: 1.5

vs Chelsea: 1

vs Brighton and Hove Albion: 0

Predicted goals: 3.5

Predicted total: 32.5

With just five games remaining to Kane’s six, Salah and Liverpool have a favourable run-in in their quest for a place in the top four – a trip to Chelsea aside.

In his previous games against the five sides to come, Salah has scored five goals with four coming during his spell at Liverpool this season.

Of the five sides remaining the Egyptian has the best record against Stoke, scoring three goals in two games – including one for Chelsea in his infamous spell during 2013/14 season.

Two assists also came in a 3-0 win for the Blues, making the game Salah’s best performance for Chelsea.

Harry Kane

vs Manchester City: 0.33

vs Brighton: 0

vs Watford: 0.4

vs West Brom: 1.7

vs Newcastle United: 0.17

vs Leicester City: 1.5

Predicted goals: 4.1

Predicted total: 29.1

Where Kane has an advantage over Salah is that he has six games remaining, and his record against the teams are favourable – but even then, Leicester are the only team the Spurs man has a favourable record against.

Up first is title-chasing Manchester City, against whom he has averaged 0.33 goals per game, while Brighton (0) Watford (0.4) and Newcastle (0.17) have also restricted him to fewer than a goal a game.

But in West Brom and Leicester, Kane has the chance to further add to his tally – with the Foxes conceding four from the Englishman this time last season.

Verdict: Mohamed Salah

No matter which way you look at it, the numbers all point to Mohamed Salah finishing as the Premier League’s top scorer this season with 33 or 34 goals compared to Kane’s 29 or 30.

With both Liverpool and Tottenham pushing to secure their place in the top four, both Salah and Kane will need to be on form to keep their teams’ runs going.

However, Salah does have the added distraction of the Champions League semi-finals towards the end of April and beginning of May which could see his game time fluctuate if a top-four place is secured.